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Pattern Swamptember 2021

Gotta love the ole Gfs SWITCH UP on the heat obviously further out you get the more iffy the real pattern gets but I like to see a nice reversal in medium range here the past couple runs (but remember there is a period after this short term cool down of the heat and humidity sticking around for a few days but something tells me it won’t be THAT bad and only temporary as most as most of the patterns this time of year are) 9B0B0ACC-B9F4-47A6-A3CF-DBD282CBEE93.jpeg9FA0CD61-6B84-4166-B95B-0FFB12AA9CB3.jpeg4F5C13C1-51E2-4C92-A474-664320595B85.jpegA4431C81-FC8A-4EE2-80F2-E659B509BD1E.jpeg
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I don’t think we miss out today even with early convection.. clouds should get outta here around 12 and HRRR and NAM still fire a healthy amount of storm and I’m sure some storm coverage it’s not seeing as it usually is too hampered with things … plus it even pulses some overnight storms for Raleigh and to SE later tonight and early tomorrow morning .. should be fun regardless
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My concern will be subsidence on the back side of the departing mcv we eat Ls in the warm season when that happens. That aside we have likely 3 respectable chances to get rain over the next 24-36 hours. My gut feeling is we all receive some rain during that time frame but it'll be the typical winners/losers setup where there will be a couple corridors of 1-2 maybe 3 inches surrounded by areas of .1-.25
 
SD said:
My concern will be subsidence on the back side of the departing mcv we eat Ls in the warm season when that happens. That aside we have likely 3 respectable chances to get rain over the next 24-36 hours. My gut feeling is we all receive some rain during that time frame but it'll be the typical winners/losers setup where there will be a couple corridors of 1-2 maybe 3 inches surrounded by areas of .1-.25
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yeah honestly I like our overnight chances much more than I like our during the day chances
 
SD said:
My concern will be subsidence on the back side of the departing mcv we eat Ls in the warm season when that happens. That aside we have likely 3 respectable chances to get rain over the next 24-36 hours. My gut feeling is we all receive some rain during that time frame but it'll be the typical winners/losers setup where there will be a couple corridors of 1-2 maybe 3 inches surrounded by areas of .1-.25
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WE know what column i'm in. Only .06" so far from that MCV that went overhead... SMDH
 
smast16 said:
WE know what column i'm in. Only .06" so far from that MCV that went overhead... SMDH
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Once the mcv departs and we start getting into more of the prefrontal trough/jet dynamics/high pwat setup all bets are off right now as to where that sets up. The 12z models are everywhere with it
 
There might be some hail in thunderstorms later, while the WBZ is suboptimal, lapse rates are steep enough and mid level temps are cool enough, gonna probably take storms reaching 45kft+ to produce hail where it can feel the stronger SRWs aloft at 6km+ Through the HGZE2F5844E-5087-4FC4-A7B0-318BDD896834.png71028788-77B3-4679-83D6-893ABEE0F9E7.png8D0D927F-A31F-4C4E-B54A-52E9D7DBC75C.png
 
SD said:
Looks microbursty as well especially if they get going before dark when when can max out height
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Yep, also good DCAPE. if there’s one thing that makes me nervous, it’s the winds towards the EL but more relaxed winds in the lower levels, storms are gonna have a lot of high clouds blowing out later, that could screw some areas
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I don’t think we miss out today even with early convection.. clouds should get outta here around 12 and HRRR and NAM still fire a healthy amount of storm and I’m sure some storm coverage it’s not seeing as it usually is too hampered with things … plus it even pulses some overnight storms for Raleigh and to SE later tonight and early tomorrow morning .. should be fun regardless
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I'll believe it when I hear thunder and see lightning.
 
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