It's really amazing how at D10 you almost always have some level of ridge in the west then as you move into days 6/7/8 it flattens. The 12z gfs didn't disappoint
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Swamptember 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Lol who had 9/29 in the mountain snow thread
This gfs run
Posting these so we can look back and laugh
Posting these so we can look back and laugh
Laugh all you want, but gfs hasn't backed down at 300hrs. Yesterday it was showing at 340+. It also handled Ida pretty well too.
smast16
Member
I swear the drought monitor is ----. I lost all faith in it after the 2019 "Flash Drought".
I'm editing to reflect that the different levels of indication have nothing to do with soil moisture or rainfall deficits, and very very little to do with Flora or Fauna. it's 80% derived from Socioeconomic impacts
So it's just a crappy indicator.
Last edited:
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 3,568
- Reaction score
- 5,547
Yeah the included factors make it slow to move and react in both directions
Only a matter of time before we get a deep trough over us with how much SE Canada ridging there has been
is that last year I smell 
smast16
Member
cd2play
Member
Technical devices does not support.
The cold rain printer at H5 is back 
Clockwork
LickWx
Member
The pattern that has not quit for what’s about to be a year . Great . We all finna be miserable
Yeah because as we get into winter that pattern sucks for snow and is super marginal, that -WPO/Aleutian ridge dumps all the cold into Alaska and leaves us with super marginal stuff under our block ?
This has trended into a solid cool shot, thank the SE can ridge for that 
-NAO printer go brrr 
Looks like we have an East coast clearing (besides Florida) cold front on the latest Euro. GFS showing the same for late next week into next weekend. Dry air remains in place the remainder of the run with a reinforcing shot towards the end. We are getting there, folks.
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 3,568
- Reaction score
- 5,547
Those are some low dews. Could be frost in the higher elevations.
There’s so much more potential to get a cold airmass in place with this block really depends on how tall the ridge out west can get
For the first time in a while there are no 90s on the eps and the mean rain total is above 1 inch
smast16
Member
Show me that rain total porn please?
Stars are really aligning on a late September switch up .. something I previously said could be what the CFS was hinting at earlier but I was STONED for thinking it was a possibility .. still far out so lots can change but COOL WEATHER IS COMING
Brent
Member
I guess a high of 80 is better but I'm ready for like a high of 70 ?
GFS still has fropa next Thu
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
Finally!
The bowling ball troughs on the GFS ALWAYS come in at this time of the year.
We’re a few ticks away from severe weather 
? 
Oh man 
NCSNOW
Member
Alright, Time to sow the ole winter rye. Tues into wed should get some good rains. Thursday onward its time for Fall. Not just Calendar, but it will have the actual Fall feel. Amazing here in GSO. If you follow the 1st days of each season officially, the weather always turns to that season almost like clockwork. Even Summer on June 21stish. The Uncomfortable DP's never show up till after that point usually . The season that usually is tardy with the change is winter on Dec 21st. By far the most inconsistent
Summers last HURRRAH!!
Summer going out with a bang.
This sucks, not the cool wx but the fact that this was the exact pattern that led us to 33 and rain all winter long last time 
Found the southeast ridge 
Some of those modeled day 10 -NAOs are crazy.
Can we please get some better models going into winter. These shifts are insane.