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Pattern Swamptember 2021

Likely to end up as nothing but watch anything that comes down the eastern flank of the ridge and if it tries to cut off along with the old front and ghost of 91L. This is a good setup to attempt closing off in the upper levels and hooking a coastal trough/low inland gfs_z500_vort_us_19 (2).png
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
This will end up low 90s but still sucks for sure
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It will end low 90s on the high end. Last week at this time both the GFS and the EURO wanted to put us in the mid 90s for the middle of this week and a couple days ago they wanted mid 90s for this coming weekend. The warmest we look to get now is around 90 Sunday and that’s after a cool off for a couple days after a front. I’ll believe these high end temps when they actually started showing only 72 hours out
 
Chazwin said:
It will end low 90s on the high end. Last week at this time both the GFS and the EURO wanted to put us in the mid 90s for the middle of this week and a couple days ago they wanted mid 90s for this coming weekend. The warmest we look to get now is around 90 Sunday and that’s after a cool off for a couple days after a front. I’ll believe these high end temps when they actually started showing only 72 hours out
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Yeah last two days of august were pretty bad but since then .. completely doable .. we will see if those temps make it this time like you I am a bit skeptical but others in here seem to make some good points about the potential so we will watch it
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Yeah last two days of august were pretty bad but since then .. completely doable .. we will see if those temps make it this time like you I am a bit skeptical but others in here seem to make some good points about the potential so we will watch it
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Oh I’m not saying that we’re not going to be a few degrees above average. I just don’t see anything to lead me to believe that we see 95-100
 
Chazwin said:
It will end low 90s on the high end. Last week at this time both the GFS and the EURO wanted to put us in the mid 90s for the middle of this week and a couple days ago they wanted mid 90s for this coming weekend. The warmest we look to get now is around 90 Sunday and that’s after a cool off for a couple days after a front. I’ll believe these high end temps when they actually started showing only 72 hours out
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To be fair we trended away from hotter temps as a result of H5/H85 changes the last week for this week
 
SD said:
Sure does the most fun part will be the fact we are likely to have a similar progression at some point this winter. I hate to beat a point to death but if you are looking for high end cold with high end snow potential la nina has a better chance at providing it than a nino. The problem is when a nina misses you are far more likely to end up cold/dry wet/warm than a nino where you can get a consolation prize mixed event
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I know it's 300+ GFS, but you can see that exact pattern playing out at 850's again.

gfs_T850a_us_fh300-384.gif
 
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