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Pattern Swamptember 2021

Have you guys in central and eastern North Carolina had 90s this month? I checked RDU, and it looks like there were a couple of days.
 
SD said:
It's really easy in this situation for 2 people to be right given how convective season works but instead some want to ignore observed data outside of their own area and generalize
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I’m not saying it’s been wet we all know it hasn’t .. all I’m saying is we shouldn't see significant drought from it.. I can see an expansion of abnormally dry conditions this next run but I also see some moisture in the picture in the short range .. maybe nothing widespread but it should help us stay out of significant drought
 
SD said:
It's really easy in this situation for 2 people to be right given how convective season works but instead some want to ignore observed data outside of their own area and generalize
Click to expand...
True. But we are not in a drought. On the other hand, nobody is claiming we are in a drought. So there really isn't an argument either way.

Some neighborhoods are dry and others really aren't. But like you said, convection season rainfall distribution can vary wildly. But we go through periods of generally dry conditions, just like we go though periods of heat. They both suck, but it's not unusual. And it will end.
 
Rain Cold said:
True. But we are not in a drought. On the other hand, nobody is claiming we are in a drought. So there really isn't an argument either way.

Some neighborhoods are dry and others really aren't. But like you said, convection season rainfall distribution can vary wildly. But we go through periods of generally dry conditions, just like we go though periods of heat. They both suck, but it's not unusual. And it will end.
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I think the argument is that some claim it's getting dry, and needing rain (me), and then others come in and say it's not dry cuz no drought and they saw it rain.

It just gets annoying.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I’m not saying it’s been wet we all know it hasn’t .. all I’m saying is we shouldn't see significant drought from it.. I can see an expansion of abnormally dry conditions this next run but I also see some moisture in the picture in the short range .. maybe nothing widespread but it should help us stay out of significant drought
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To be honest when you look at the factors that go into the drought monitor I doubt we see much expansion or worsening. Most of what I and @smast16 are complaining about is soil moisture related and that's only a percentage of the drought monitor. It would probably take dry for a larger portion of the state through the rest of the year to get more than D0. Streamflow will keep the drought monitor from looking as bad as my scorched yard
 
smast16 said:
I think the argument is that some claim it's getting dry, and needing rain (me), and then others come in and say it's not dry cuz no drought and they saw it rain.

It just gets annoying.
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If you're in one of those spots that always gets completely missed, or even side swiped continuously, it can be completely infuriating.
 
  • Thank You
Reactions: SD
Rain Cold said:
True. But we are not in a drought. On the other hand, nobody is claiming we are in a drought. So there really isn't an argument either way.

Some neighborhoods are dry and others really aren't. But like you said, convection season rainfall distribution can vary wildly. But we go through periods of generally dry conditions, just like we go though periods of heat. They both suck, but it's not unusual. And it will end.
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I think there's a little fomo and jealousy that creeps in here too. It really sucked bigly to see places just a few miles away get 1-4 inches the other day. I'd expect the same level of complaining or worse if we got bullseyed with snow on a coastal and much of the rest of the region took an L while we danced in the street
 
smast16 said:
I think the argument is that some claim it's getting dry, and needing rain (me), and then others come in and say it's not dry cuz no drought and they saw it rain.

It just gets annoying.
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Most of the time, when you have this large of a community, people have widely different perspectives. Simply using the drought monitor fails to give you a proper sense of the things that matter to people, like what you and @SD are talking about. I totally understand the irritation of dry conditions when one of your hobbies is yard work. On the other hand, I hate yard work, so the less I have to mow, the better. Both perspectives are valid, and I think most people here are probably fine with that.

But we've seen posts since early May anticipating dryness and heat, and only recently have we seen much of both. And in retaliation to that, we see opposite posts jabbing at the previous posts. And then we see jabs back at that. And around we go.

It's not much different than what we see in the winter about how it's never going to be cold or snow again. Some kidding around is fun. But constantly griping about it being too cold or never getting cold anymore is annoying and silly. The weather is variable and usually we don't have unending stretches of anything.
 
SD said:
I think there's a little fomo and jealousy that creeps in here too. It really sucked bigly to see places just a few miles away get 1-4 inches the other day. I'd expect the same level of complaining or worse if we got bullseyed with snow on a coastal and much of the rest of the region took an L while we danced in the street
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I hear you about the snow, but where I think it's a little different is that you realistically only get a couple of chances of snow per year. So if you blow it, it's done. On the other hand, it rains all year round. But I definitely agree on the point about gloating. Just because you got 5" of rain doesn't mean others that want rain need to see you laughing about it.
 
Rain Cold said:
True. But we are not in a drought. On the other hand, nobody is claiming we are in a drought. So there really isn't an argument either way.

Some neighborhoods are dry and others really aren't. But like you said, convection season rainfall distribution can vary wildly. But we go through periods of generally dry conditions, just like we go though periods of heat. They both suck, but it's not unusual. And it will end.
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You say things how I wish I could say things lol this is a fair statement
 
GFS uptrending temps aloft/sfc temps over us as it’s shifting the main center of the ridge right over us D80CB0D0-C7A3-4D52-9341-05B77A9A5B6A.png878E0B22-371B-497D-A0C8-390F3122F99D.gif1DB5B211-BE72-4EEF-BB13-59E68D319132.gif60D1389B-02FD-4487-85D5-4F11EA796221.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Western ridging is quite weak this run don’t know if it’s enough to push a front thru our areas, west of the apps maybe, there might at least be a wedge
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Yep, first front can’t really make it thru and just stalls, this is interesting however but it’s something that could easily trend west and dump out west or in the C US E3FFAEC9-9804-4288-AB6A-FD3BD7E7CC7B.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Most of the time, when you have this large of a community, people have widely different perspectives. Simply using the drought monitor fails to give you a proper sense of the things that matter to people, like what you and @SD are talking about. I totally understand the irritation of dry conditions when one of your hobbies is yard work. On the other hand, I hate yard work, so the less I have to mow, the better. Both perspectives are valid, and I think most people here are probably fine with that.

But we've seen posts since early May anticipating dryness and heat, and only recently have we seen much of both. And in retaliation to that, we see opposite posts jabbing at the previous posts. And then we see jabs back at that. And around we go.

It's not much different than what we see in the winter about how it's never going to be cold or snow again. Some kidding around is fun. But constantly griping about it being too cold or never getting cold anymore is annoying and silly. The weather is variable and usually we don't have unending stretches of anything.
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It has been dry for longer than that for me in the Western Piedmont, vs a wet July for much of the US 1 east corridor.
 
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