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Pattern Swamptember 2021

NorthDFWwx said:
In general, I consider the no vs. no-snow line to be I-20.

There are rare exceptions of course.
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Yeah last winter had something to say about that out here ?

But going back to the snow drought argument I used to think that about Dallas too and then look what happened last year more snow than I had seen in 5 years living there
 
Brick Tamland said:
We had the setup that is favorable for producing above average snowfall here according to what happened in the past and didn't get it.
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The nao was the only thing favorable. When you have no cold air in our source regions the nao is only going to be able to do so much alone. We had a couple of minor ice/snow events during the -nao portion of last winter, we did about as well as we could. Once we got into Feb the nina background state is always going to favor a SE ridge unless you can bias the pacific ridge east we didn't do that this year and the SER won in NC/SC/Ga
 
SD said:
The nao was the only thing favorable. When you have no cold air in our source regions the nao is only going to be able to do so much alone. We had a couple of minor ice/snow events during the -nao portion of last winter, we did about as well as we could. Once we got into Feb the nina background state is always going to favor a SE ridge unless you can bias the pacific ridge east we didn't do that this year and the SER won in NC/SC/Ga
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That still hurts to this day...
 
smast16 said:
That still hurts to this day...
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Sure does the most fun part will be the fact we are likely to have a similar progression at some point this winter. I hate to beat a point to death but if you are looking for high end cold with high end snow potential la nina has a better chance at providing it than a nino. The problem is when a nina misses you are far more likely to end up cold/dry wet/warm than a nino where you can get a consolation prize mixed event
 
SD said:
The nao was the only thing favorable. When you have no cold air in our source regions the nao is only going to be able to do so much alone. We had a couple of minor ice/snow events during the -nao portion of last winter, we did about as well as we could. Once we got into Feb the nina background state is always going to favor a SE ridge unless you can bias the pacific ridge east we didn't do that this year and the SER won in NC/SC/Ga
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I think the SER won in most of AL also.
 
SD said:
Sure does the most fun part will be the fact we are likely to have a similar progression at some point this winter. I hate to beat a point to death but if you are looking for high end cold with high end snow potential la nina has a better chance at providing it than a nino. The problem is when a nina misses you are far more likely to end up cold/dry wet/warm than a nino where you can get a consolation prize mixed event
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Honestly we had a lot of good possible chances last year .. we were so close so many times .. I can’t see us having that much bad luck this year too! At least I hope lol
 
SD said:
Sure does the most fun part will be the fact we are likely to have a similar progression at some point this winter. I hate to beat a point to death but if you are looking for high end cold with high end snow potential la nina has a better chance at providing it than a nino. The problem is when a nina misses you are far more likely to end up cold/dry wet/warm than a nino where you can get a consolation prize mixed event
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I'm pretty sure we all know where this is going to land, it's just a matter of when some others will see the writing on the wall
 
smast16 said:
I'm pretty sure we all know where this is going to land, it's just a matter of when some others will see the writing on the wall
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First we will see “front loaded front loaded”
Then “oh well December into January isn’t even best climo for us to see snow”
Then “I mean we just had a SSWE so watch out mid February”
Then “ backloaded March?”
finally “ it snowed good here in April in 1812”

These are the stages of snow grief here in the south … I’ve been stung by this needle before I’ll be dodging it this year hopefully
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
First we will see “front loaded front loaded”
Then “oh well December into January isn’t even best climo for us to see snow”
Then “I mean we just had a SSWE so watch out mid February”
Then “ backloaded March?”
finally “ it snowed good here in April in 1812”

These are the stages of snow grief here in the south … I’ve been stung by this needle before I’ll be dodging it this year hopefully
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Come February 1, we will be saying “but March 1960”.
 
smast16 said:
I'm pretty sure we all know where this is going to land, it's just a matter of when some others will see the writing on the wall
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Yeah I mean AN for DJF as a composite seems like the way to go. The big time question marks to me lie in the first half of winter and how the north pac and arctic evolve.
 
SD said:
If we keep spilling energy down the eastern side of the ridge centered near the 4 corners we are going to be left with a weak cutoff as the trough exits and the ridge builds over top
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I’ll take those daily thunderstorm chances again!
 
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