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Pattern Swamptember 2021

Dewpoint Dan said:
I would say the average once you get to mid September leans more towards low to mid 80s than mid to upper 80s for places like Atl and Charlotte.
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Again, that is average. Very rarely do we get long stretches of exactly average weather.
 
Rain Cold said:
The GFS has been doing stuff like this all summer. I mean, maybe we finally goo into the long hot dry period that's been anticipated from May. But I doubt it. We'll warm up and then we'll get a front through and cool back down. That's what I think will happen anyways.
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Yeah… keep in mind also that most of last week the GFS and the EURO were both showing highs in the mid 90s by the end of this week and the weekend…now we’re looking at mid to upper 80s end of the week and around 90 for the weekend
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Warmth definitely winning at 850, 5C above avg vs 1c below avg !
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I’m not saying it’s going to be more cold than it will be warm .. I’m just saying I can deal with a couple 90 days if we have a couple 80 days after ??‍♂️ .. again climo only going to keep supporting us non sweaters
 
Well it’s the cfs so take with a grain of salt but it wants to push a continued warmer than average pattern through mid September but consistently has shown a much cooler than average period late September with a pretty stout trough over the eastern portion of the US … definitely nothing frosty but certainly would give the “oh crap fall is coming isn’t it” type of feel when you walk outside
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
September heat is more bark than bite. That low sun angle and shorter days will work wonders.
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The sun angle argument again ?. How well did the sun angle help when it was 90 in October a couple years ago? The same can be said about the winter months which is your favorite time to mention a difference in sun angle.
 
GaStorm said:
The sun angle argument again ?. How well did the sun angle help when it was 90 in October a couple years ago? The same can be said about the winter months which is your favorite time to mention a difference in sun angle.
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You certainly can't deny that the shorter days help. It's definitely going to cool off earlier in the evening than it does in July.
 
NorthDFWwx said:
Times are desperate when people start pulling out the CFS...
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I said take with a grain of salt .. just using it to maybe see large scale possible changes coming in the next month or two.. no model is a for sure thing and the cfs certainly isn’t suppose to be taken as 100% fact. But it can from time to time pick out large scale pattern changes I’m just making observations I’m not saying FROST is coming for sure September 27-30th.. come on guys
 
Rain Cold said:
I like it when people finally capitulate and predict a warm, snowless winter.
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I mean most of us are in the "not much snow" region but then again doesn't that pretty much sum up every single winter ? I consider 10" to be "not much snow" so perhaps this map doesn't mean much for those of us in the south. An average winter in Atlanta is like 2" which is not much snow.
 
Rain Cold said:
I like it when people finally capitulate and predict a warm, snowless winter.
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This should just be every years outlook so if we get a little snow people can be like oh wow more than we thought and if we don’t then it’s oh it’s what we predicted .. no one losses
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
I mean most of us are in the "not much snow" region but then again doesn't that pretty much sum up every single winter ? I consider 10" to be "not much snow" so perhaps this map doesn't mean much for those of us in the south. An average winter in Atlanta is like 2" which is not much snow.
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Yeah it really doesn't say anything specific. It gives the impression of much below average, though.
 
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