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Wintry Sunday 12/18-Tues 12/20 ZR threat

86f031635caac89f49bfe4e6a69bb853.jpg


How's this for dynamics...lol? A Tornado Watch overlaying a Winter Weather Advisory.

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vegaseagle link said:
[quote author=JLL1973 link=topic=54.msg2512#msg2512 date=1482004013]
First winter weather advisory of the season goes into effect at midnight for my area
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North Alabama addded also.
[/quote]
nice!!! enjoy

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=vegaseagle link=topic=54.msg2513#msg2513 date=1482004128]
[quote author=JLL1973 link=topic=54.msg2512#msg2512 date=1482004013]
First winter weather advisory of the season goes into effect at midnight for my area
Click to expand...
North Alabama addded also.
[/quote]
nice!!! enjoy

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[/quote] No road trip for you this year? lol
 
18z gfs is a little more agressive with the change to wintry vs previous runs

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vegaseagle link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=54.msg2530#msg2530 date=1482006018]
[quote author=vegaseagle link=topic=54.msg2513#msg2513 date=1482004128]
[quote author=JLL1973 link=topic=54.msg2512#msg2512 date=1482004013]
First winter weather advisory of the season goes into effect at midnight for my area
Click to expand...
North Alabama addded also.
[/quote]
nice!!! enjoy

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[/quote] No road trip for you this year? lol
[/quote]
not for this little event . but no doubt I'll be up there sometime in the next two months :)

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tellicowx link said:
86f031635caac89f49bfe4e6a69bb853.jpg


How's this for dynamics...lol? A Tornado Watch overlaying a Winter Weather Advisory.

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Click to expand...

Yep I posted about that in one of the other threads as It's a pretty crazy scenario. So is northern middle Tennessee going to see a little more wintery weather then initially forecast?
 
Gusts from 40 to 50 mph as the front passes...Reports of trees, limbs, and some power outages all along the front in TN and AL.

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Surprised no advisory for RAL area maybe even further east. Doesn't favor the foothills in this setup tho. WPC highlights this well in their ice probs.
 
I see NWS has added chance ip/zr to our forecast for tomorrow (Cen NC) and the GFS much colder with precip still around with almost .25 ice and the NAM is determined we will see wintry precip.  Fun times.... 71 today ice tomorrow?

Actually looks like the NAM has backed off which is probably a good thing haha
 
metwannabe link said:
I see NWS has added chance ip/zr to our forecast for tomorrow (Cen NC) and the GFS much colder with precip still around with almost .25 ice and the NAM is determined we will see wintry precip.  Fun times.... 71 today ice tomorrow?

Actually looks like the NAM has backed off which is probably a good thing haha
Click to expand...
I just saw the 6z gfs had warning criteria freezing rain and the 12z nam backed way off. Looks like the euro was too warm for freezing rain. 

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SD link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=54.msg2627#msg2627 date=1482071365]
I see NWS has added chance ip/zr to our forecast for tomorrow (Cen NC) and the GFS much colder with precip still around with almost .25 ice and the NAM is determined we will see wintry precip.  Fun times.... 71 today ice tomorrow?

Actually looks like the NAM has backed off which is probably a good thing haha
Click to expand...
I just saw the 6z gfs had warning criteria freezing rain and the 12z nam backed way off. Looks like the euro was too warm for freezing rain. 

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[/quote]
It's amazing how modeling is all over the  place but we've seen precip bend back NW a little further then forecast when a wave develops along a stalling front and with that arctic right there....I like our chances of maybe advisory criteria

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metwannabe link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=54.msg2631#msg2631 date=1482072233]
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=54.msg2627#msg2627 date=1482071365]
I see NWS has added chance ip/zr to our forecast for tomorrow (Cen NC) and the GFS much colder with precip still around with almost .25 ice and the NAM is determined we will see wintry precip.  Fun times.... 71 today ice tomorrow?

Actually looks like the NAM has backed off which is probably a good thing haha
Click to expand...
I just saw the 6z gfs had warning criteria freezing rain and the 12z nam backed way off. Looks like the euro was too warm for freezing rain. 

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[/quote]
It's amazing how modeling is all over the  place but we've seen precip bend back NW a little further then forecast when a wave develops along a stalling front and with that arctic right there....I like our chances of maybe advisory criteria

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[/quote]
It's going to be close. If dewpoints fall off into the 20s and we do see constant precip it's going to be hard to stay above freezing with the constant feed of dry air at the surface.

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snowing in Crossville with a visibility of 1.5 miles.  Not bad for a shallow artic air mass.  Currently around 40 here and raining
 
cyclogent link said:
snowing in Crossville with a visibility of 1.5 miles.  Not bad for a shallow artic air mass.  Currently around 40 here and raining
Click to expand...
I was hoping to see some wintry stuff here, but I think the cold is taking too long to filter off the Plateau

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Radar in Alabama is showing mix bag towards Birmingham area
 
SD link said:
Gfs showing a little zr in NC

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Click to expand...
Maybe some ip too but it is lesser amounts then the 06z.  Still very interesting

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metwannabe link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=54.msg2638#msg2638 date=1482076529]
Gfs showing a little zr in NC

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Click to expand...
Maybe some ip too but it is lesser amounts then the 06z.  Still very interesting

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[/quote]


IP looks more likely up your way with 925mb temps getting down to -4c.
 
SD link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=54.msg2641#msg2641 date=1482078155]
[quote author=SD link=topic=54.msg2638#msg2638 date=1482076529]
Gfs showing a little zr in NC

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Click to expand...
Maybe some ip too but it is lesser amounts then the 06z.  Still very interesting

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[/quote]


IP looks more likely up your way with 925mb temps getting down to -4c.
[/quote]
Yeah that's what I saw, I was sitting in church so only looked at the sounding for mby haha.  I'm also on the edge of the precip shield fine line to be in the "sweet spot"

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Sure do wish this precip we had this afternoon could stick around until tomorrow.

The flip flopping with the models is irritating.
 
Brick Tamland link said:
Sure do wish this precip we had this afternoon could stick around until tomorrow.

The flip flopping with the models is irritating.
Click to expand...
Flipping flopping is over, fairly unanimous that we will not see frozen precip tomorrow now.

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SWS for black ice tonight
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
920 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>021-030>032-041>043-191600-
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Floyd-Bartow-
Cherokee-Polk-Paulding-Cobb-Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-
920 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016

...PATCHES OF BLACK ICE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA
TONIGHT...

PATCHES OF BLACK ICE MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH GEORGIA WHERE ANY LINGERING MOISTURE COULD FREEZE AND RESULT
IN A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS AND BRIDGES. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHES OF BLACK ICE WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM CARROLLTON TO DOUGLASVILLE TO CANTON TO DAHLONEGA WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AT OR BELOW FREEZING.

AT THIS TIME... TEMPERATURES IN THE ATLANTA METRO AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY MID
TO LATE MONDAY MORNING... ENDING THE BLACK ICE THREAT AT THAT
TIME.

ALL INTEREST ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA SHOULD DRIVE WITH EXTRA CAUTION
TONIGHT AND DURING THEIR MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE AS A FEW SLICK
SPOTS ON ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
 
So is it going to be lack of precip or not cold enough? Seems like it's all over the place with this, with the GFS saying the precip should end before it becomes a problem for anything frozen, but then there's a 90% chance of rain tomorrow in the forecast from RAH
 
Brick Tamland link said:
So is it going to be lack of precip or not cold enough? Seems like it's all over the place with this, with the GFS saying the precip should end before it becomes a problem for anything frozen, but then there's a 90% chance of rain tomorrow in the forecast from RAH
Click to expand...
Probably too warm. I wouldn't be shocked to see some sleet in the morning though as we get a cold nose aloft but that's more likely toward the VA border. It'll be close and if any precip lingers into the late morning/afternoon we might see a period of light freezing rain.  Overall I don't think the moisture and cold will overlap

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Snowing in Nash County if these radars are accurate. Checked a couple and all show blue northern coastal plain.

SD arent you in Knightdale, shows snow to your east by about 20 miles as the crow flies.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/south-carolina/weather-radar
 
NCSNOW link said:
Snowing in Nash County if these radars are accurate. Checked a couple and all show blue northern coastal plain.

SD arent you in Knightdale, shows snow to your east by about 20 miles as the crow flies.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/south-carolina/weather-radar
Click to expand...

Im at work in Cary. My home thermometer is showing 34.1/31
 
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