accu35
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Tropical Subtropical Storm Alberto
- Thread starter stormcentral
- Start date
000
ABNT20 KNHC 211230
TWOAT
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern
Caribbean Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula are associated
with the interaction of a large upper-level low with a weak surface
trough. While environmental conditions are expected to be
unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, some
gradual development is possible later this week while the system
moves into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba
and Florida over the next several days. For more information on
the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 800 PM EDT tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Blake
ABNT20 KNHC 211230
TWOAT
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern
Caribbean Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula are associated
with the interaction of a large upper-level low with a weak surface
trough. While environmental conditions are expected to be
unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, some
gradual development is possible later this week while the system
moves into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba
and Florida over the next several days. For more information on
the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 800 PM EDT tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Blake
accu35
Member
Code yellow is up
accu35
Member
20% to be on the safe side for now.
accu35
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accu35
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Regardless of the MJO, which JB is emphasizing is favorable for tropical development in the W Caribbean or GOM:
Based on the combination of longterm late May climo and there currently being nothing well organized, nobody should be surprised if no TS were to come out of this. Keep in mind that there have been only 5 TS that had a genesis during 5/21-31 in the W Car/GOM in 167 years. I'm sure the MJO was favorable in many of the years that ended up with no development when we're talking about this many years of climo. I'm still at a 33% chance of TD genesis for now (which is very high for late May) and a 5% chance of a FL TS landfall (also very high for late May). I'll adjust these up or down as we move forward. There could just as easily be no more than a very broad low that never gets past the TD stage or doesn't even get classified as a TC. Or maybe there will be a TD or even a TS that never hits FL as per many of the current model runs. Or maybe there will be a TS and it weakens to below TS strength before hitting FL. So many possibilities other than a TS hit on FL.
Based on the combination of longterm late May climo and there currently being nothing well organized, nobody should be surprised if no TS were to come out of this. Keep in mind that there have been only 5 TS that had a genesis during 5/21-31 in the W Car/GOM in 167 years. I'm sure the MJO was favorable in many of the years that ended up with no development when we're talking about this many years of climo. I'm still at a 33% chance of TD genesis for now (which is very high for late May) and a 5% chance of a FL TS landfall (also very high for late May). I'll adjust these up or down as we move forward. There could just as easily be no more than a very broad low that never gets past the TD stage or doesn't even get classified as a TC. Or maybe there will be a TD or even a TS that never hits FL as per many of the current model runs. Or maybe there will be a TS and it weakens to below TS strength before hitting FL. So many possibilities other than a TS hit on FL.
Storm5
Member
Current wind shear is a ----- . Good luck to this system , gonna be a struggle
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CMC would be a decent tornado producer along with the rain.
accu35
Member
Forecast to drop end of week
accu35
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accu35
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accu35
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Brent
Member
Euro definitely went east
accu35
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accu35
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accu35
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accu35
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GFS shifts west and EURO east. I say from LA/Fl best bet. CMC/EURO is on agreement
accu35
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Storm5
Member
Euro is much more progressive vs previous runs which is good
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accu35
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accu35
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Storm5
Member
Won't do it much good by then
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Shear suppose to drop end of week
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Officially designated an invest now.
pcbjr
Member
First invest of the season.
5-day chances increased to 40%.
5-day chances increased to 40%.
The new GFS FV3 made me dizzy at all of the swirls moving around through 18Z
accu35
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accu35
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and welcome to history...Good Morning
DadOfJax
Member
Hopefully this will bring much needed rain to east AL. The lack of rain over the last week has been nothing short of pathetic. Almost as pathetic as the local forecasts that called for it.
5-day chances remain at 40%.
accu35
Member
Afraid this system will do da loop thing again as harvey did, with bundest and bundest of rain. Flood watch/warnings will be high.
accu35
Member
Most models has it mendering around the gulf coast for a long duration period. Let's hope that don't happen
TAMPA BAY WEATHER
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Forecast: Potential tropical system threatens to drench already soggy Tampa Bay area
[National Hurricane Center]
By Devin Rodriguez, Times Staff Writer
Published: May 22, 2018
Updated: May 22, 2018 at 09:02 AM
Flood warnings have been extended for the Alafia River in Lithia and the Little Manatee River at Wimauma as the National Weather Service continues to monitor a broad area of low pressure that has a building chance of developing into a tropical system.
And with more rain expected the next few days, even more rivers could be at risk, forecasters said.
The area of low pressure is drifting in the northwest Caribbean and could develop tropical conditions while it travels into the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week, according to the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters place the chance of development around 40 percent in the next five days.
But even if it did not develop into a tropical system, an already drenched region can expect even more showers and thunderstorms.
RELATED: Less than one year after historic flooding, Alafia River spills its banks again
"At best, it will be spreading a lot of rain our way by the end of the week," said Paul Close, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service.. "Most of the rain will fall on Friday and Saturday, it’s possible to continue into Sunday."
Close said this weekend will be very cloudy with off-and-on rain that will be very heavy in some areas.
According to Close, the gulf waters are not warm enough for a low-pressure system to sustain tropical conditions. Chances for development will be higher later in the year when Gulf waters warm over the summer.
But, Close warns, flooding could be a significant problem this week.
"Flooding will be a problem in general, especially urban flooding and low-lying areas," Close said. "We’ve had two or three days last week where we had 2-3 inches of rain within a few hours that flooded roads. That could happen this weekend."
A flood warning remains in effect for the Alafia River until Wednesday night. Flood stage is 13 feet, but as of Monday night at 9 p.m., it had reached 14.2 feet and is expected to rise to 14.5 feet on Tuesday before subsiding Wednesday afternoon.
The Manatee River reached 11½ feet Monday night, a half-foot above flood stage.
EXTENDED FORECAST: The 10-day outlook for the Tampa Bay area
Over the next two days, the Tampa Bay area will see that familiar summertime rain pattern of scattered showers and thunderstorms firing up primarily in the afternoon, forecasters said.
Tuesday morning temperatures sit in the low 70s with a lot of high humidity. By the afternoon, temperatures will rise to around 86 with a 60 percent chance of rain.
High rain fall has caused some minor flooding in the area and caused four sinkholes to form at the Villages retirement community in Central Florida.
As the week grinds on, folks should plan their morning and evening commutes with rain in mind. Rain chances will be at 60 percent throughout the week, and Memorial Day weekend could be a washout, forecasters said.
730 PM Special Tropical Weather Outlook. Medium chance (40%) of development of a broad low pressure system is possible late this week over the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall is the main threat across western Cuba & Florida during the next several days. pic.twitter.com/YOxqiGDPhf
— NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) May 22, 2018
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Forecast: Potential tropical system threatens to drench already soggy Tampa Bay area
[National Hurricane Center]
By Devin Rodriguez, Times Staff Writer
Published: May 22, 2018
Updated: May 22, 2018 at 09:02 AM
Flood warnings have been extended for the Alafia River in Lithia and the Little Manatee River at Wimauma as the National Weather Service continues to monitor a broad area of low pressure that has a building chance of developing into a tropical system.
And with more rain expected the next few days, even more rivers could be at risk, forecasters said.
The area of low pressure is drifting in the northwest Caribbean and could develop tropical conditions while it travels into the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week, according to the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters place the chance of development around 40 percent in the next five days.
But even if it did not develop into a tropical system, an already drenched region can expect even more showers and thunderstorms.
RELATED: Less than one year after historic flooding, Alafia River spills its banks again
"At best, it will be spreading a lot of rain our way by the end of the week," said Paul Close, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service.. "Most of the rain will fall on Friday and Saturday, it’s possible to continue into Sunday."
Close said this weekend will be very cloudy with off-and-on rain that will be very heavy in some areas.
According to Close, the gulf waters are not warm enough for a low-pressure system to sustain tropical conditions. Chances for development will be higher later in the year when Gulf waters warm over the summer.
But, Close warns, flooding could be a significant problem this week.
"Flooding will be a problem in general, especially urban flooding and low-lying areas," Close said. "We’ve had two or three days last week where we had 2-3 inches of rain within a few hours that flooded roads. That could happen this weekend."
A flood warning remains in effect for the Alafia River until Wednesday night. Flood stage is 13 feet, but as of Monday night at 9 p.m., it had reached 14.2 feet and is expected to rise to 14.5 feet on Tuesday before subsiding Wednesday afternoon.
The Manatee River reached 11½ feet Monday night, a half-foot above flood stage.
EXTENDED FORECAST: The 10-day outlook for the Tampa Bay area
Over the next two days, the Tampa Bay area will see that familiar summertime rain pattern of scattered showers and thunderstorms firing up primarily in the afternoon, forecasters said.
Tuesday morning temperatures sit in the low 70s with a lot of high humidity. By the afternoon, temperatures will rise to around 86 with a 60 percent chance of rain.
High rain fall has caused some minor flooding in the area and caused four sinkholes to form at the Villages retirement community in Central Florida.
As the week grinds on, folks should plan their morning and evening commutes with rain in mind. Rain chances will be at 60 percent throughout the week, and Memorial Day weekend could be a washout, forecasters said.
730 PM Special Tropical Weather Outlook. Medium chance (40%) of development of a broad low pressure system is possible late this week over the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall is the main threat across western Cuba & Florida during the next several days. pic.twitter.com/YOxqiGDPhf
— NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) May 22, 2018
In partial deference to the models, I'm currently still near a respectable 1 in 3 chance for a TD to form this week though now I'm thinking in the GOM if it occurs, which is quite high for that area in late May based on history, but still only near a 5% chance for a subsequent FL TS hit. So, I'm saying that IF a TD forms this week, there's about a 1 in 6 chance for that TD to hit FL as a TS before the month is out. That's how I get my 5% FL TS hit chance. I'm at a 10% chance for an actual TS hit anywhere along the US Gulf coast by the end of May.
Regardless, heavy rain in parts of the SE is currently the biggest threat assuming slow movement. For some areas, this system could be a blessing even if there is heavy rain (assuming no flooding in those areas).
Regardless, heavy rain in parts of the SE is currently the biggest threat assuming slow movement. For some areas, this system could be a blessing even if there is heavy rain (assuming no flooding in those areas).
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accu35
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