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Misc Stock Market

What a sh--show.

My guess is that there's still truth behind yesterday, but Trump was mad that it looked like what he did in 2017 still worked here in 2025.
 
What did day 6, which would correspond to tomorrow, do for the two remaining cases (excluding the current one)? These are the only two cases other than the current one that had an 8%+ drop for days 1-2 combined, further drops days 3 and 4, and a gain on day 5:

-9/18-22/1931 Fri-Wed (days 1-5): day 6 (9/23 Thu) had a 7.1% drop to new low!

-7/19-24/1933 Wed-Mon (days 1-5): day 6 (7/25 Tue) had a 1.5% drop; but days 7-8 rose a combined 3.4% to a short term high

Regardless, there being only two cases and both from way back during the Great Depression means virtually no statistical credibility, of course, and the outcome will be largely influenced by what Trump says/does tomorrow as we know.
It will be interesting to correlate the various ups and downs that are coming. If one one could guess on the traits of personality in one individual as related to decisions to be made in coming situations...but have good data as to what occurs when he decides on his actions, one could have a solid gamble. I mean, one could guess that he'd back down on the world wide taxes after his fragile coalition was quaking, so figure for an up day..but need to predict when he'll fold. One could then figure he'd double down on China since he has a real case of the ass with them, and it's how the system is manipulated.... to knee jerk in both directions, sometimes twice in a day. If you can write a program to predict his decisions based on sensor data, or, i.e., intuitions, and when he's likely to do it, ie. back down...but double down on China, the old one two punch. One could even predict what the markets would do with a one two punch. Jump around with hair on fire.. But it's tomorrow when your program makes us money. What we need is a Cray, or a bank of them. With your abacus and Crays, with my nonsense, we'll make a fortune, lol. Knowing the markets are now in a straight jacket with him, and dance to his tune, and freak out when he twitches, then we need a program to predict what the markets will do tomorrow by predicting twiches and responses by the markets. Which way will the lurch propel the markets? It seems to me a obsolete version of Goofy, Using news reports from lots of news sources, adding in stocko for climo, and factor for the cold bias, would serve. We need a wider sample, but your abacus will fill in for that. Ohh, ohh, get data on what the baro pressure was doing during these lurches. And the moon. I never really had thought of the tide being a continuous, constant wave. Is like breathing. Maybe the stock market is attuned to his breathing? Put that in the program. Man, we are going to be so set for life. Sorry, if I'm loopy, but I watched the Masters today, and I'm used up. Nothing left in the tank, and I was just sitting there.
 
Haven't really done much the past 3 days...$548-550 was previous support and been rejected. Right into the emas...typical rejection too in bearish sequences. This closes over $550 that would suck to not have anything on...but I like $520 area better down the road but still believe it makes lower lows in Q3.

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More tariff fighting. No thanks.

Cash earning 4% is anyones best bet right now. Haven’t really done much swing trading since the last week absurd up day.

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We keep getting these bogus tweets that move markets so fast....this market is so broken right now.


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Everytime I check on the markets it just looks worse and worse. Everyone sees the death cross...

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4% for cash is the play...this market blows and I think it's headed much much lower

Powell just dropped the hammer...slower growth higher inflation...exactly what a teetering market wants to hear.

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4% for cash is the play...this market blows and I think it's headed much much lower

Powell just dropped the hammer...slower growth higher inflation...exactly what a teetering market wants to hear.

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I think you agree this is a bear market with high volatility, uncertainty, and instability largely due to the tariffs/economy. I maintain what I said last week right after the huge up day: that’s just a big relief bounce and there will be more bad days. The problem leading to this hasn’t gone away and stocks were expensive to begin with. I’m a longterm buy and hold investor only seeking to add a little each time on dips like I did on March 11th and again on April 9th. I don’t daytrade.
 
I think you agree this is a bear market with high volatility, uncertainty, and instability largely due to the tariffs/economy. I maintain what I said last week right after the huge up day: that’s just a big relief bounce and there will be more bad days. The problem leading to this hasn’t gone away and stocks were expensive to begin with. I’m a longterm buy and hold investor only seeking to add a little each time on dips like I did on March 11th and again on April 9th. I don’t daytrade.
I’m similar with my long term accounts…those are still 50% cash. Added at SPY $560 and $496.
 
Impact to the private sector of federal job cuts, spending cuts, tariffs is just starting
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Violent short cover into close...right at SPY $520. Probably more choppy mess coming.

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Zooming out...I am so biased bearish right now as I want to say it looks like $450-460 coming later this year. Our economy...world economy is in such bad shape. Especially our economy.

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Impact to the private sector of federal job cuts, spending cuts, tariffs is just starting
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Yeah, that's just what we need for a sound economy and society...flood the unemployment roles with tons of over qualified people for the jobs available. Oh, and keep poking China until they decide to call in our markers, and start mass selling bonds. They'd endure some real hurt, but weaken the dollar such that the yen could take over as the world standard, which they want. Real genius at work here, for sure, lol.
 
NVDA one of the few longs I kept on, own from the $40’s and now watched it fall from $150 to $100. And looks like it’s on edge of a cliff.

I don’t have a good plan for when things drop below there emas. Except watch it lose money. 🤦‍♂️

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Haven't done anything today...really haven't done anything since last weeks huge up day. $520 on the SPY looks like key level but it keeps rejecting the emas...typical bearish sequence. I don't know what could trigger this to push through those emas....i guess China/US deal but that doesn't look close. And economy has other huge problems to do deal with.

Close below $520 it gets ugly.

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