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Misc Stock Market

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Jumped in CATV today. Let’s see what she do. I sell when you sell. ?
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Bought 500k today at .0215. I'm holding the vast majority of my shares until EOY. Should see this one initially rise after the company announces their new name from 4Cable TV to something that fits their growing cannabis business.
 
I think today's moves in the ten year yield and oil are the wrong ones but what do I know...

Like maybe Europe is going to lock down because of Delta but there's too many people in the US that are sick of COVID.

I hopped off the TNX to 2% soon bandwagon but I'd prefer that thing stabilize for the time being instead of what it did today so far and Friday.
 
At another place I said that it felt like to me that QQQ was about out of steam.

And what does it do...set a record high in the after hours that will have to trade in regular trading hours.

Lol

I didn't think it was out of steam forever, but I felt that maybe it'd pull back just a little before the underlying index (Nasdaq-100) tries for 15k.
 
Didn't take long for the S&P to make this its 9th straight month with a new record high.

This streak will definitely end at some point but while it's going on, it's insane.
 
This year probably simply ends up going down in history as a slightly more volatile version of 2013 or 2017 the way it's been going for the US major averages. I wasn't paying attention then even though I had an interest in the way stocks worked (despite that, I've been told that my dad/grandpa occasionally fought to try to get my attention but they failed) but from what I've seen in reading, there are shades of those years overall in the market.

What could be going on is it could be a faster version of late 2016-2018, with a move like late 2018 coming in the latter half of the year, since we already saw the Bitcoin move that happened a few years back happen again (the first pop in the Bitcoin bubble happened in early 2018 and stocks got hit hard later that year). That's one way to make it different, otherwise my opinion is no different than it has been, which is that a reckoning that is like 2018 will happen sometime next year. Taper tantrum, uncertainty with government moves, etc...

Probably no crash though.
 
Grabbed some SDOW at the close just for ----- and giggles. This doesn’t look too good.41B1E1D3-8CD6-431F-90AB-86ADEE19A34C.png
 
Since the breakdown two weeks ago failed, that's arguably a long term bull flag in the Dow actually that has targets that would make many pass out if it played out (invalidates below the 32500's).

The problem with that however is we don't know who's lying between it and smalls/transports...although what smalls have done has generally not mattered to anything, so it may be mainly the transports. The Dow had an all time closing high today and isn't far from its ATH, but the transports are further away.
 
I'm not going to try, but playing SQQQ for a day is going to probably work fairly soon.

NDX is a runaway freight train atm that is giving me flashbacks of last summer, but even then there were times where it got overheated and dropped quite a bit in one day. My hunch is that will probably happen at some point and it may be soon because I'm starting to feel like how I did before that mid-February-early March correction happened (although I'm not looking for something like that to possibly happen again yet).

This index is simply unreal when it wants to be.
 
The ARKK and Nasdaq test is about to happen again it looks like, because as of right now I'm going to call the ARKK weakness another rejection in an area where it rejected seemingly a million times in the spring after that 10%+ Nasdaq correction ended.

If ARKK is indeed reversing here, when it reversed in late April, that Nasdaq rally halted. So, it will be interesting to see what happens then. Does it reversing signal another halt to a Nasdaq rally, or will it just not matter for now?

To add on to that, the chart for the Nasdaq is pretty good as long as the NDX is above where it broke out, but if ARKK doesn't get moving on the other hand, the ARKK ETF not really in great shape (could just be a big bear flag).
 
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Since I'm bored and baseball is boring/sucky today (even though it's not 11-1 bad like yesterday), here are some charts with my thoughts:

ARKK chart.png

ARKK. Had a nice rebound off being extremely oversold but like I said this afternoon, appears to have rejected again for the fourth time in the range it made it up to. You can't see it since I drew a line lol, but it printed three black crows and that's a reversal pattern. Rest of my thoughts are in my first post today.

NDX.png

The Nasdaq-100 with a textbook breakout out of the range it had been stuck in for a while a couple weeks back. I don't like the volatility the index had today, so it could come in, but it has a ways to go before there'd be reason to worry. Up over 20% in the past nearly 4 months, even though there was a waffle in May, which is pretty incredible.

Dow ETF.png

The Dow ETF. Since the breakdown a few weeks ago was fake, this is arguably a bull flag or simply consolidation until it's not (I will be stricter and say that the consolidation idea is valid at the June low and above, but you can apparently stretch it further). Made a lower low just like the fall too before it reversed. The problems here are:

1. The way value stocks are behaving isn't really backing up what it's done. They rebounded from being routed but not as much as the Dow did.

2. The way TNX is behaving.
 
Today's volatility is kind of disgusting. Kind of feels like that day before that first Thursday of September last year, although with that day, it was mainly Nasdaq based, today it's all three of the major averages, smalls just completely tanking for an hour and then reversing over the next near 2 hours, and growth stocks getting hammered.

Makes me sort of think the Fed notes that are incoming in less than 10 minutes are probably hawkish.

Edit: Nevermind. Makes me wonder what's up then.
 
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I have a feeling that tomorrow (and it would've on the gap up too) will be the day that SQQQ works because most of the stocks on the Nasdaq just aren't getting bid at all.

Not something I'll play, but it's a feeling. If mega-cap tech lets go, **** may get ugly.

But I still for the most part don't feel like it's a start of something, unless what ARKK is doing is telling us something like it did in late April. The Nasdaq is probably going to turn out a day where it loses 2% randomly fairly soon given what I'm observing and then we'll move forward from there.
 
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GeorgiaGirl said:
I have a feeling that tomorrow (and it would've on the gap up too) will be the day that SQQQ works because most of the stocks on the Nasdaq just aren't getting bid at all.

Not something I'll play, but it's a feeling. If mega-cap tech lets go, **** may get ugly.

But I still for the most part don't feel like it's a start of something, unless what ARKK is doing is telling us something like it did in late April. It's probably going to turn out a day that it loses 2% randomly fairly soon given what I'm observing and then we'll move forward from there.
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Is ARKK the main focus of your investments?
 
Just buy. Don't need to be longer than that.
 
If this morning was "it" on the cyclical selling, then what I thought was going to happen a few weeks back (a kind of violent switch intraday on leadership underneath) happened yesterday.

Regardless, this probably isn't done until Tuesday and likely becomes the 6th "too much, too fast" ultimately baby dip.

Edit: Still have a long way to go though on the day.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
If this morning was "it" on the cyclical selling, then what I thought was going to happen a few weeks back (a kind of violent switch intraday on leadership underneath) happened yesterday.

Regardless, this probably isn't done until Tuesday and likely becomes the 6th "too much, too fast" ultimately baby dip.

Edit: Still have a long way to go though on the day.
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The baby dip switchbacks have outnumbered the lead rotations by a good bit, over the last quarter or so. It hit me this morning (and a few times last week but I just didn't get that strong of a vibe back then) that the volatility increases on these fake quote-unquote rug-pulls, only to turn out to be turn-arounds within hours or even a day, are momo darts for the day trader crowd, moreso than the actual tells that will happen when you see them coincident with breadth indicator deterioration. We'll see, but I suspect we'll cycle back around with the reflation slash dip-fakeout again soon.

Edited to fix a typo
 
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