Apple's stock is going to get cooked if the trade war between the US and China continues to escalate.
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Misc Stock Market
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
Not so much
Just a complete clown show....tech/SPY down 7%+ from intraday high and now the last 10-15 mins ripped 2% higher.
Probably get a big gap up tomorrow...problem we see what happens if we get a positive tariff headline, it will rip 5-6% in mins. This is a craps table, not a stock market.
Probably get a big gap up tomorrow...problem we see what happens if we get a positive tariff headline, it will rip 5-6% in mins. This is a craps table, not a stock market.
broken025
Member
What happens day 5
Worst case scenario: China responds forcing Trump to make another Truth Social post announcing new tariffs and market have another bad day.
Best-case scenario: Stock market have the first green day since Wednesday.
Considering the fact we're in a trade war with everyone, the market will get testy in the coming weeks as we go into a ping-pong match from tariff response (especially the US-China trade war) and new trade deal news.
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Red futures!!
It depends on what one man decides to say, but you knew that.
But regarding the stats, here are the 3 cases with 8%+ Dow drops first two days combined followed by further drops days 3 and 4:
-9/18-22/1931 Fri-Tue; Wed was +6.0%
-7/19-22/1933 Wed-Sat; Mon was +6.6%
-10/6-9/2008 Mon-Thu; Fri was -1.5%
The positive cases for each of days 3 and 4, which have been in an ~2/3 majority, have not been coming through although today early on looked promising obviously before Trump said China would have 104% total tariffs. So, day 5 also had 2 of 3 closing in the green with the two greens having very strong days. But the tiny sample size of 3 means credibility is nil. And again it depends on Trump’s words, regardless.
10-year back up to 4.35%, so much for cratering that.
lexxnchloe
Member
Dow futures down 600. Trump needs to start announcing deals ASAP
Green by open
Frozen Thunderstorm
Member
Apple is already moving logistical operations into India and intend to set up manufacturing in India and Brazil. Tesla and Samsung are also following suit. Since October of 2024, US, and to a lesser extent, European, companies were exploring such plans. The EU and US placed Tariffs on Chinese Self-Driving EVs last year. Biden also tariffed Canadian battery manufacturers, in addition to alienating America's #1 EV Car-Maker, Tesla, by providing government assistance (e.g. financing, low emission standards) to Ford, Stellantis, and GM, so they could appropriate Elon's business model. American Automakers can't get rid of EVs, because they sucked. European Makers couldn't compete with China overseas, and Tesla was the most popular All-electric vehicle for March 2025 in the UK, and the Tesla Model Y was first in Germany. Europe can't even compete with China, because they're getting under-cut on price.
Currently, both China and the EU are both suffering from economic and political crises, as well as civil un-rest. Germany has been in a recession for 3 years and can't survive without Russian/US Energy. They relied on Biden dumping oil and LNG into the market by adopting Trump's 'drill baby drill' policy. Had they done that from the start, the initial Russian calculations in Ukraine would have been deterred by a more united Europe. That isn't happening.
EVs Take 28.9% Share Of The UK - Tesla Top BEV Brand - CleanTechnica
March saw plugin EVs take 28.9% share of the UK auto market, up from 22.9% year-on-year. BEVs grew volume by 43% YoY, while PHEVs grew 38%.
cleantechnica.com
GeorgiaGirl
Member
You’d get a lot more support for the tariffs and the media wouldn’t be screeching here if it was just a mix of targeted tariffs and being tough on China (but not essentially trade embargo tough). But if that’s the intended message, it doesn’t get through when everybody is getting targeted.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
China news just a few minutes ago.
This is just going to become like what you see with the Yosemite Sam cartoons at least initially.
I dare you to go to 150%!
No, 200%!
More!
This is just going to become like what you see with the Yosemite Sam cartoons at least initially.
I dare you to go to 150%!
No, 200%!
More!
China slaps retaliatory tariffs of 84% on U.S. goods in response to Trump
PUBLISHED WED, APR 9 2025 7:09 AM EDT
China's Office of the Tariff Commission of the State Council said that tariffs on U.S. goods will rise to 84% from 34% starting on April 10, according to a translation of the announcement. This comes after the latest U.S. tariff hike — which brings levies on Chinese goods to more than 100% — took effect at the start of April 9.
PUBLISHED WED, APR 9 2025 7:09 AM EDT
China's Office of the Tariff Commission of the State Council said that tariffs on U.S. goods will rise to 84% from 34% starting on April 10, according to a translation of the announcement. This comes after the latest U.S. tariff hike — which brings levies on Chinese goods to more than 100% — took effect at the start of April 9.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
This is getting ridiculous, China has as much control on our economy as we do if not more. Like a long auction for pain and the bid keeps rising.
NoSnowATL
Member
Up 4.5% YTD. Wen crash
We have probably reached peak stupidity with this tariff stuff between China/US so maybe market starts shrugging off these headlines. I added a healthy amount of SPY at $486.30 in pre-market and I will probably let this work today unless SPY takes out Mondays lows.
I did add a chunk back in my 401k before close yesterday so just over 50% cash still in there. I went all cash in 401k when SPY broke $600 and added 20% back at $560 and now another chunk back at $496. I probably should have just added back more.... But will see, got lots of wiggle room.
I did add a chunk back in my 401k before close yesterday so just over 50% cash still in there. I went all cash in 401k when SPY broke $600 and added 20% back at $560 and now another chunk back at $496. I probably should have just added back more.... But will see, got lots of wiggle room.
NoSnowATL
Member
This tariff thing is just a negotiation tool that’s been used in business since day 1. Smart guys don’t play checkers. They need us more than we need them.
Gonna moon 
Apple will probably make a run at that EMA5 at least. Even if it’s a dead cat, market should follow. Pump 
ForsythSnow
Moderator
What even is going on with these stocks anymore, they're flying vertical practically.
It's like everything else in our world, professional wrestling.
yep. AAPL surging
Here we go...no breadth and all sectors just rolled over. Can't have a rally with just the mag7 and everything else deep red. XLF/XLU made new lows and that was that.
Sold 1/3 of SPY into $500 from $486 and now I feel dumb...should have sold it all. If it breaks the $493 I will sell another 1/3 and leave the rest on.
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Apple up. Market down/flat
Sheesh
Sheesh
Bounced right above $493...that needed to hold. I did add few back at $493.30..tight stop just below 493. Europe exchanges close 11:30am so will see how things look after that.
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VIX starting to crack...it's very rare for the VIX to be over 50 and it's been several days now. A break below 45 could be fun. I have so much fomo right now as I have to be careful. I don't think this is the lows but I think it could be for a couple of weeks. Market's knifed down from ATH's down 20% with no real retracement.
Sold the 493's I added at 500. I want to see an intraday breakout before I believe anything. Still holding 2/3 of what I bought at 486 pre-market.
Yields are a mess...10yr parabolic into a bear market. We can't have yields rocketing into a recession.
If a deal with China is made market will rip like it did on Monday 5-6% up easy...yields will collapse. And then we get to ride that for a short period of time as then we get to deal with a recession...rising unemployment...perky inflation.
If a deal with China is made market will rip like it did on Monday 5-6% up easy...yields will collapse. And then we get to ride that for a short period of time as then we get to deal with a recession...rising unemployment...perky inflation.
10 yr bond auction at 1pm...SPY right into daily resistance. This should be fun.
Oh and FOMC mins at 2pm. CPI tomorrow....this whiplash is going to be there all week. Don't have to chase strength.
Oh and FOMC mins at 2pm. CPI tomorrow....this whiplash is going to be there all week. Don't have to chase strength.