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Misc Stock Market

Storm5 said:
Serious question . If Russia goes in by the weekend what does the market do ?


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There isn't any good news on the horizon for markets...QE ending, QT starting, rate hikes, multi-decade high inflation, now Russia. But, I am still not sold that S&P is going to drop another 10% for a 20% correction. Feel like some headline is coming to save the market...
 
Natural gas (#natgas lol), despite being down from the high of today, is still up 2% for the day despite significantly warmer US weather (very bearish for NG demand) (including an even warmer 12Z EPS just out) because of the threat of a drop in Russian NG supply to Europe and the fact that would mean increased demand for US LNG. Germany delaying certifying Nord Stream 2 is a big factor. Otherwise, NG would now be sharply down for the day:

www.investing.com

Natural Gas Futures Price Today - Investing.com

Explore real-time Natural Gas Futures price data and key metrics crucial for understanding and navigating the Natural Gas Futures market.
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Storm5 said:
Serious question . If Russia goes in by the weekend what does the market do ?


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Click to expand...
Short term tank 5-20% IMO (probably 5-10%). Probably will be short term and bounce back, though. Problem from there is that war will only make inflationary issues even worse.
 
There is absolutely no world where the Dow being under 34k is bullish anything based off the way it has traded since May of last year. It is why I was looking for it to gap down and reverse yesterday, the absolute last thing that it needed was a close under 34k.

32k incoming pretty soon. Should provide at least some short-term relief as it's the backtest of the 2017-2020 range, below though and it's going to round trip to February 2020 where it was in the mid 29000's (although it did take a while for it to set a new record after crashing in 2020, so maybe that standard needs to be set a bit lower).

Edit: If Russia invades tonight, you might get the capitulatory gap down and reversal, but that doesn't matter with where the indexes are at.
 
Q's going to get the always fun death cross....last time it happened was end of 2018 and the bottom dropped out.

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Broken024 said:
Really? I was selling 0 dte calls against my SPY shares today in my Fidelity IRA.

Edit - I do not have a million in there unfortunately
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They probably allow it since you have the shares to cover if the option is exercised. I believe they took it away because they had users that would buy 0 DTE and they would end up in the money but their account didn't have enough money to actually exercise the option.
 
buckinbronco said:
They probably allow it since you have the shares to cover if the option is exercised. I believe they took it away because they had users that would buy 0 DTE and they would end up in the money but their account didn't have enough money to actually exercise the option.
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Ohhh naked, yea I could see that.
 
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