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Misc Stock Market

Still can't get over VIX action yesterday...it popped almost 25% in a couple of hours which flushed many names, cleared stops out and then the vix rolled over hard into close.


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I hate this price action...they gapped it down hard yesterday, flushed it hard mid-afternoon and then ran it up into the close and then gapped it up into the prior gap down.

I don't know what to do here...I am not chasing but I don't know if the Q's is going to close the week at $440 or $420.

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LYFT has done nothing for a year and now up 40% on the day. Shorts are getting bent over.

I applaud anyone holding this over the past year....not for me.

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Nobody owns SMCI? Maybe we are in a bubble 😂

Shorts are pulling there hair out...trapped and can't leave it along. RSI almost a 100

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This is a total clown show past few days...when it gets like this you just stay out of the way. My plan this week was to not do much and this is why.

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I did add a healthy amount of SPY back at $494.60 on the gap fill. Clear stop set at that pivot...but I kind of expect them to undercut that again and then rip it higher there after. But today I will be watching for that.

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I did add a healthy amount of SPY back at $494.60 on the gap fill. Clear stop set at that pivot...but I kind of expect them to undercut that again and then rip it higher there after. But today I will be watching for that.

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Market is insane...I added big earlier at $494.60 and added more on the breakout. I was 90% cash coming into today and now I am 20% cash.

I need to get it out of my head the market is going to have a multi-week correction...it's just not.

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NIO looking better...basing now between 5.30-6.30...a close over $6.30 and it could go.

TSLA chart looks similar.

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NIO looking better...basing now between 5.30-6.30...a close over $6.30 and it could go.

TSLA chart looks similar.

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Nio looking great...I should have bought this a couple of weeks ago at $5.50'ish when I first started looking at it.

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SPY with almost a perfect gap fill...still long from yesterday and added a little on that gap fill.

monthly opex tomorrow...keep thinking they are going to pin SPX at 5k so might be fairly quiet today/tomorrow.

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TSLA looks amazing...

QQQ/SPY right at ATH's but Apple and TSLA are nowhere near ATH's...bull market doesn't need everyone it seems. I think those 2 play catch up.

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Apple really lagging the Qs and SPY. Been trading in this channel for 10 months...either it starts playing catch up to the upside or SPY/Qs start playing catch up to the downside. My guess is Apple starts moving soon...couple of days...couple of weeks...it's a guess.

weekly chart

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@KyloG ......looking for NIO to rip in the first 30 minutes of trading like it has 3 of the last 4 days this week (minus CPI day Tuesday). I have swung this each day this week and have made a killing. I plan to be out by 10am at the latest.

GT was way oversold like I said a few days ago.....its already making a run back.

Apple is due for a breakout of 10% or better....it has to catch up.
 
Inflation numbers were god awful this week...I lightened up quite a bit just now. Seasonality suggest we see a sharp pullback but...this market has a mind of it's own. Holiday Monday...not going to do much today and sit back and wait.
 
Unreal…I added back what I sold earlier. This market is never going down. 😂

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If the Nasdaq doesn't sell during the typical post-Presidential Day weakness (with NVDA maybe being a catalyst in sell the news fashion), I'm curious on what's going to occur when February headline CPI comes in at 0.5 MoM in March, because that's very likely to be the case (maybe you get back to 0.3 on core, but headline "will" be bad).

The reality is that some of this actually probably is new year price adjustments. If you remember, nothing came of inflation looking like it was bouncing early last year. But I'm thinking another set of bad inflation data might put the TLT and QQQ correlation, the one that is uhh, broken, on track to being back onside.
 
There’s a post on my local community’s Facebook page about someone trying to sell their home by owner and there are hundreds of replies/comments under the post from realtors saying they want to help sell it. “Please I’d love to help.” “Reach out to me” etc.. real estate is so over saturated it’s unbelievable. People are poor. No one is moving. No one is going to move if rates drop to 4-5% because people who bought houses 4+ years ago are married to a 2.5% rate and low house payment. There’s no incentive to move. So my theory is the powers that be will be forced to shake this thing up because if it becomes stagnant it’s bad news. I think a hard landing down the line is inevitable and this is one of my reasons.
 
There’s a post on my local community’s Facebook page about someone trying to sell their home by owner and there are hundreds of replies/comments under the post from realtors saying they want to help sell it. “Please I’d love to help.” “Reach out to me” etc.. real estate is so over saturated it’s unbelievable. People are poor. No one is moving. No one is going to move if rates drop to 4-5% because people who bought houses 4+ years ago are married to a 2.5% rate and low house payment. There’s no incentive to move. So my theory is the powers that be will be forced to shake this thing up because if it becomes stagnant it’s bad news. I think a hard landing down the line is inevitable and this is one of my reasons.
The housing market just shouldn't crash, it needs to crash. It needs to crash hard. Houses are extremely overpriced in multiple markets and when the majority of the population holding them dies off they'll really crash since the generations following them will not have as many people. They also really have to get rent under control it's ridiculous how much places charge. We can't keep a big crash off forever no matter who says anything. The market will tank too.
 
The housing market just shouldn't crash, it needs to crash. It needs to crash hard. Houses are extremely overpriced in multiple markets and when the majority of the population holding them dies off they'll really crash since the generations following them will not have as many people. They also really have to get rent under control it's ridiculous how much places charge. We can't keep a big crash off forever no matter who says anything. The market will tank too.
I mean I can see a scenario where things drop pretty drastically. People who bought years ago can still have great equity in their homes with a significant market correction. It’s certainly what we need. It does capitalism no good to have the majority of the population walking around house poor. They’re saying the data doesn’t show that the consumer is in a bind right now but I just don’t believe that. I know my spending habits have changed significantly and I’m not special. I have a decent amount of savings and even I am terrified. There’s a stigma out here where we don’t want to talk about these struggles and fears with one another and I think they’re encouraging that stigma with their counter “consumer strong!” propaganda. These are my thoughts.
 
@KyloG ......What are you looking at today? Thoughts on INTC with the potential subsidies from the ChipAct?

I am fairly quiet today...lot of ugly candles on Friday.

INTC chart looks really good...gap fill could come, macd cross.

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Failed breakout on the Qs...haven't had one of these since August. Of couse, it has to close back into the channel and dip buyers have been relentless for months. Bears are going to start shouting bull trap soon.

Personally I am hoping for a nice long correction but I'm not so sure we get one.


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Brutal setup going into earnings tomorrow for NVDA. Looks like it’s ready to roll over but if they beat and they will have to beat handily it could trap a lot shorts. I ain’t touching it.


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Bought some TQQQ dip here... $54.80...was watching to see if they undercut the morning low and then bounced...hard stop at $54.50.

Unless NVDA earnings have leaked then I doubt the shorts will keep things pressed low into earnings tomorrow. It's going to be very tricky....NVDA could roll the entire market or it could squeeze everything too.

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Dow has passed below the support and now wicking back off the retest
sold out on the mini inverted h&S 2 cents is better than a loss
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Bought some TQQQ dip here... $54.80...was watching to see if they undercut the morning low and then bounced...hard stop at $54.50.

Unless NVDA earnings have leaked then I doubt the shorts will keep things pressed low into earnings tomorrow. It's going to be very tricky....NVDA could roll the entire market or it could squeeze everything too.

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Closed out 2/3 of this at $55.70 from $54.80...nice bounce. Will keep the other 1/3 overnight.

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dow futures showing a double top head shoulders look
dow closed with a inverted h&s look probably will bounce the wedge once more, I have a feeling this will be the final nail in the coffin. just doesn't look strong with the hr hovering and keeps falling below the 200 on the hr chat
atm i have a sizable short.. just feels different. 1708474160493.png1708473837257.png
 
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What are your thoughts on NVDA today?
I’m a gambler and I’d like to gamble it. Best guess is they try to run it up a bit into earnings after close but either way I’d fade todays direction if I were playing earnings. Please don’t listen to me though
 
One of the days/weeks/months China trade might be appetizing. It hasn't done anything for years.

I remember back in early 2021 I met with a financial advisor whose recommendation was to sell tech stocks and buy foreign equities, including China. She was right on tech, somewhat...tech just broke out from it's 2021 ATH but China scares me.

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That was pretty much the bottom and still haven't positioned in China yet. I should have put a starter in with FXI

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