If the same thing that’s worked for the last two options expirations happens again, buy is probably Tuesday midday around 4280-4300 or so instead of anywhere around here.
There’s something with monthly option expirations that has caused lows for the time being on the day after options expire at times. Worked December, worked last month, this month… ????
Feels 50/50 though. Either that works or the next time Powell speaks, SPX will be at 3800 and because of the jitters over what stocks are doing, they will have likely made no more progress in tightening financial conditions (raising the Fed funds rate is one thing that you can do, but they likely would like for TNX to go higher, which is why there has been so much talking by them, but it is not happening if stocks see a fast move down).