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Misc Stock Market

Q’s at a massive support here. Weekly has to close here. Breakdown and all hell breaks loose next week
 
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They walked down SPY to about $1 off the June lows. I put some positions on but I don't feel good about. Market is very oversold....but...

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KyloG said:
Interesting

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I was watching when he came on. He sounded like he had lost his entire portfolio and was calling foul. I could be wrong but a shorter recessionary period is better than a long drawn out period of stagflation on the regular American. To the money managers I’ve seen it be completely opposite of that. They can make money in choppy flat period of the market vs losing large parts of their portfolio to a recession.
 
Round Oak Weather said:
I was watching when he came on. He sounded like he had lost his entire portfolio and was calling foul. I could be wrong but a shorter recessionary period is better than a long drawn out period of stagflation on the regular American. To the money managers I’ve seen it be completely opposite of that. They can make money in choppy flat period of the market vs losing large parts of their portfolio to a recession.
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Thing is that when Banks start having major liquidity issues, they will draw from their customers savings. This will have catastrophic impacts for the economy. Look what's going on in Lebanon.
 
Round Oak Weather said:
I was watching when he came on. He sounded like he had lost his entire portfolio and was calling foul. I could be wrong but a shorter recessionary period is better than a long drawn out period of stagflation on the regular American. To the money managers I’ve seen it be completely opposite of that. They can make money in choppy flat period of the market vs losing large parts of their portfolio to a recession.
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Problem is Powell went from “transitory inflation” to now rapid hikes…he has no clue what he’s doing. Yes, rates shouldn’t have been this low for this long but hiking until the wheels come off is just another big mistake. It will just result in millions of jobs lost and homes lost…that isn’t fixing inflation, that’s crippling to lower/middle class and upper class too.
 
KyloG said:
Problem is Powell went from “transitory inflation” to now rapid hikes…he has no clue what he’s doing. Yes, rates shouldn’t have been this low for this long but hiking until the wheels come off is just another big mistake. It will just result in millions of jobs lost and homes lost…that isn’t fixing inflation, that’s crippling to lower/middle class and upper class too.
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He is an idiot I would agree with that but historically a stop and go interest rate policy has caused years of lost economic growth. Hike the rates to 4.5% by the end of the year then pause and see if it brings inflation in check. No matter what we’re in bad shape!
 
Round Oak Weather said:
He is an idiot I would agree with that but historically a stop and go interest rate policy has caused years of lost economic growth. Hike the rates to 4.5% by the end of the year then pause and see if it brings inflation in check. No matter what we’re in bad shape!
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The majority of the inflation was from food which idk how rising interest rates would cause that to lower unless families stop eating from no income.
 
Round Oak Weather said:
He is an idiot I would agree with that but historically a stop and go interest rate policy has caused years of lost economic growth. Hike the rates to 4.5% by the end of the year then pause and see if it brings inflation in check. No matter what we’re in bad shape!
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Agreed, but that should be communicated. Hike to 4-4.5% and then they pause and digest data for a few months.
 
Zoom out on the charts and it looks like markets want to correct another 80%..which probably means we rocket back up from here
 
severestorm said:
The majority of the inflation was from food which idk how rising interest rates would cause that to lower unless families stop eating from no income.
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They include restaurants in food inflation and over the past couple years that’s been a growing demand for families. It also gives families less income to spend on higher priced or non essential foods. Less Bacon and more cereal for breakfast.
I wonder if a lot of it has to do with ongoing supply chain issues that no one can seem to figure out.
 
severestorm said:
Get ready for bank buy-in's. The Dodd frank act opened that door and removed the federal government's ability to rescue banks.
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Not to argue too much but it was the Money Market reform bill of 2015 that allows for bail in's over the FDIC insured limits. As for the US banks, from what I understand they are not doing much business right now with European and Asian banks. They are only focused on North American banks. Hence why they are parking so much at the Fed bc they don't trust anyone else.
 
AMD is a hot mess, so if NVDA. Tech sucks when semi's are this weak. They were first to go down but first to come up...if/when a rally occurs. I load up at $60.

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Here is some food for thought on Semi's. They need Neon gas to make Semiconductors. Well 80% of the worlds Neon comes from Russia and Ukraine. The other 20% comes from China. It will take the US about 2-3 years to bring online a Neon Factory. It really pairs with a steel manufacturing facility so that is going to be a problem.
 
VIX hit 33 this morning...really need to see 35-36 level before what I would think is a bottom, albeit a short term bottom.

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Nothing on, I took some profits early and then was stopped out quick for the rest.

Just brutal price action...they bid it up at open and then just been a slow drain all day with lower lows. I guess if SPY gets over $366 it could be compelling but it would feel like a trap if it did.

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KyloG said:
Nothing on, I took some profits early and then was stopped out quick for the rest.

Just brutal price action...they bid it up at open and then just been a slow drain all day with lower lows. I guess if SPY gets over $366 it could be compelling but it would feel like a trap if it did.

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Yeah that thing sold off easy this morning. Fundamentals out the window
 
KyloG said:
Nothing on, I took some profits early and then was stopped out quick for the rest.

Just brutal price action...they bid it up at open and then just been a slow drain all day with lower lows. I guess if SPY gets over $366 it could be compelling but it would feel like a trap if it did.

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That pump this morning got me. I had been so patient too. Grabbed a few lotto calls to see if we get bounce thru Wednesday
 
KyloG said:
I'm scared....mentioned earlier that market bottoms like this don't happen with VIX at 32...usually above 35 closer to 38-40.

Yuri - great follow on twitter. Always great TA.

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I bought 367 calls for 10/3 so let's bottom after these print please


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