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Misc Stock Market

There's a decent chance (by decent, I'd put it at 60%+) that "this" is the time they've actually been done in, but given the regimen we're in I'd still hold off and wait a little while to call it.

The gauge I'd use is the gaps today, if they don't close by eom at the latest, and preferably sooner, my guess is they don't close until the fall, a couple months from here.

By "they've"=S&P/Dow.
 
If oil and yields don't turn around and tech sells just a bit more than it has there's a really good chance that the SPX posts a -3 to -5% down day tomorrow.
 
Made a couple hundred scalping AMC today and loaded some bottomed out (hopefully) trash small caps. Positioned decently but still mostly cash.
 
Today actually triggered a DeMark 13 buy signal in SPX, which was triggered on June 18th and followed by a 5%+ rally, but WTI Crude and yields are gonna need a loooootttt of work overnight for today to be a possible bottom.

Would really prefer that TNX snap back a bit and then start doing nothing again...I stopped watching that thing for a while to be honest but now it's acting crazy again.
 
Time for the traditional one day vacuum followed by a multi-week snap-back to new ATHs. You can look at whatever index or whatever technical indicators you want, but that's the basic pattern. One day, that will change. But persistence has been paying out bigly.
 
Rain Cold said:
Time for the traditional one day vacuum followed by a multi-week snap-back to new ATHs. You can look at whatever index or whatever technical indicators you want, but that's the basic pattern. One day, that will change. But persistence has been paying out bigly.
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I think that "one day" is still a year or 2 down the road, at least. Big money and government not gonna let it happen anytime soon, the sky ain't falling, yet
 
Futes slipping. Bitcoin crashing. This doesn’t feel like it’s over. Tomorrow could be another wild one. Grab your popcorn.
 
What TNX does is pretty much all that’s going to matter for tomorrow.

Looked constructive for a bit of a snapback for a lot of the night but much less so of late. Still plenty of time to work on it though.

I kinda get the feeling you’re going to get more bond short margin calls though. Everybody big is short bonds and a margin call apparently already happened for sure earlier this month that caused a panic in Europe that bled over for part of the day. There’s a decent chance there were some this Monday as well.
 
TNX ultimately didn’t do what was needed and is now going in the wrong direction. If there’s still a pop at open, it will likely be sold hard… probably a deep red day for many areas of the market.
 
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