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Misc Stock Market

$FB been trading very nicely...trimmed a few shares yesterday but added back those today. Fighting the 50dema.

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I was concerned about this move in HYG happening tomorrow instead of today considering that there weren't many details given about QT last month except "may finalize it at next meeting and it will look familiar".

They must be going on the high side of what some seem to think (some think it may get up to 100 billion a month until the balance sheet is where it was pre-pandemic...although getting there is unlikely in all honesty) and aren't going to have Janet pull levers that may soften things up.

If that were the case, then it's going to bother credit markets again unless some news interrupts that, and ironically enough...CPI next week could actually do so. While it's not necessarily a theory that I'm adopting, I've seen a theory that if CPI MoM remains around where it has been lately, that will receive focus by markets over YoY, and the market will focus on the fact that in May, we'll be trading a 0.9 for a 0.5.
 
Ok boys and girls fed minutes tomorrow . What do we think ????


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Well none of them have been able to shut up about the sky falling and they want to dramatically raise rates and aggressively start QT. So I expect that language in the mins. But I think that's posturing....just my opinion. They talk tough but there actions are anything but.
 
I'm still bullish in the near term (2-3 months) but let's see. Hopefully, this is just a flag building....

I did trim some positions yesterday into that rip but not nearly enough to compensate for today's disaster. Today is pain....

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I'm still bullish in the near term (2-3 months) but let's see. Hopefully, this is just a flag building....

I did trim some positions yesterday into that rip but not nearly enough to compensate for today's disaster. Today is pain....

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I hope we touch 356 before the next big move


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QQQ may be fine above 351-352 (and it'd set up an inverse head and shoulders) but I'm not sure the Nasdaq is fine if you pound the broader version of it back under 14150ish and it's been the broader version of the Nasdaq that has dictated things since the Powell renomination.

If my theory is correct and credit markets get hurt tomorrow because of QT commentary, we're set up for bears to have a great chance to wrestle back control of the ball on the Nasdaq.

On the other hand, it's going to be pretty funny if you see yields top for a good long while either tomorrow before more info about QT is released or next week with CPI. It'd be fitting, as it'd be peak bad news.
 
I hope we touch 356 before the next big move


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That's kind of the area I am looking at...bottom end of that channel, roughly the 20dema in a few days.
 
What the f...I don't even know what to say...Except that I am terrified these idiots are in control of the US monetary policy

Seriously...what in the world....?‍♂️

 
I don't own MSFT shares but the chart looks really good. Large cap tech or bust it seems...

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wanna see that monster head and shoulders play out on the dow 15min
still waiting on drip to break that wedge down oil is about ready to short anyways

nas
 
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The move by HYG today is very bad…so bad that I don’t think positive Ukraine news would interrupt the drumbeat that credit markets being shaky has caused this year when they’ve been shaky.

If the minutes tomorrow don’t cause a reversal in it, then the thesis that we’re waiting to see what happens with CPI is correct. CPI will be hot, but a theory that I’ve seen is that MoM might be the focus and if MoM is still in the range that it’s been in for a while now, then the April print likely dropping to 0.5 on MoM is going to be frontrun (failing that, we'll likely get everyone tilted negative before the next FOMC and get that to end in the same way as March at least temporarily), and what the Fed has been doing is going to amount to just putting up a show in the end.

The biggest concern is that economically connected stuff is trading as if something is wrong. I wanted a 300-400 point rally day from the Dow much more than what happened yesterday. Thought we might get a mild rotation into more economically sensitive stuff, and then we got those Brainard comments.
 
What an economic plan unfolding. I guess this is good news. So good that the common working man is getting squeezed so hard, hes gotta start financing his grocery bill. Recession has statrted and well underway. We can see it at work looking at the retail sales forecast changing daily, headed for the cliff. Of course itll be Fall,post election before the players own up/admit to it.

 
Late next year? Its here friend, trust me. 70+ % of the American economy is driven by consumer spending. Ask around, the disposable income in most everyones wallet has dried up the past 9 months.
This is why the market just outlawed margin calls. This will not end well economically....
 
Late next year? Its here friend, trust me. 70+ % of the American economy is driven by consumer spending. Ask around, the disposable income in most everyones wallet has dried up the past 9 months.
Government will just give away free money again.
 
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