Storm5
Member
Big tech getting smoked . Amazon puts are ripping
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Misc Stock Market
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
Storm5
Member
Ok boys and girls fed minutes tomorrow . What do we think ????
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Irrelevant. Buy stocks.
Paywalled doh! Come on Jimmy, help us out here!
Storm5
Member
Lol it's not irrelevant at all if you are day trading or swing trading .
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True
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I was concerned about this move in HYG happening tomorrow instead of today considering that there weren't many details given about QT last month except "may finalize it at next meeting and it will look familiar".
They must be going on the high side of what some seem to think (some think it may get up to 100 billion a month until the balance sheet is where it was pre-pandemic...although getting there is unlikely in all honesty) and aren't going to have Janet pull levers that may soften things up.
If that were the case, then it's going to bother credit markets again unless some news interrupts that, and ironically enough...CPI next week could actually do so. While it's not necessarily a theory that I'm adopting, I've seen a theory that if CPI MoM remains around where it has been lately, that will receive focus by markets over YoY, and the market will focus on the fact that in May, we'll be trading a 0.9 for a 0.5.
They must be going on the high side of what some seem to think (some think it may get up to 100 billion a month until the balance sheet is where it was pre-pandemic...although getting there is unlikely in all honesty) and aren't going to have Janet pull levers that may soften things up.
If that were the case, then it's going to bother credit markets again unless some news interrupts that, and ironically enough...CPI next week could actually do so. While it's not necessarily a theory that I'm adopting, I've seen a theory that if CPI MoM remains around where it has been lately, that will receive focus by markets over YoY, and the market will focus on the fact that in May, we'll be trading a 0.9 for a 0.5.
Well none of them have been able to shut up about the sky falling and they want to dramatically raise rates and aggressively start QT. So I expect that language in the mins. But I think that's posturing....just my opinion. They talk tough but there actions are anything but.
Storm5
Member
VIX is on the struggle bus as far as breaking $20 goes
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You had multiple put spreads opened?
I'm still bullish in the near term (2-3 months) but let's see. Hopefully, this is just a flag building....
I did trim some positions yesterday into that rip but not nearly enough to compensate for today's disaster. Today is pain....
I did trim some positions yesterday into that rip but not nearly enough to compensate for today's disaster. Today is pain....
Storm5
Member
GeorgiaGirl
Member
QQQ may be fine above 351-352 (and it'd set up an inverse head and shoulders) but I'm not sure the Nasdaq is fine if you pound the broader version of it back under 14150ish and it's been the broader version of the Nasdaq that has dictated things since the Powell renomination.
If my theory is correct and credit markets get hurt tomorrow because of QT commentary, we're set up for bears to have a great chance to wrestle back control of the ball on the Nasdaq.
On the other hand, it's going to be pretty funny if you see yields top for a good long while either tomorrow before more info about QT is released or next week with CPI. It'd be fitting, as it'd be peak bad news.
If my theory is correct and credit markets get hurt tomorrow because of QT commentary, we're set up for bears to have a great chance to wrestle back control of the ball on the Nasdaq.
On the other hand, it's going to be pretty funny if you see yields top for a good long while either tomorrow before more info about QT is released or next week with CPI. It'd be fitting, as it'd be peak bad news.
That's kind of the area I am looking at...bottom end of that channel, roughly the 20dema in a few days.
severestorm
Member
Windergawx
Member
wanna see that monster head and shoulders play out on the dow 15min
still waiting on drip to break that wedge down oil is about ready to short anyways
nas
still waiting on drip to break that wedge down oil is about ready to short anyways
nas
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Storm5
Member
Beautiful flush
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Storm5
Member
Heck QQQ might touch 356 this week
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MOC imbalance 630mil to the sell side
severestorm
Member
student loans to be paused again due to heavy inflation this time.
thehill.com
Biden administration expected to extend student loan pause this week
The Biden administration is expected to announce another extension to the student loan pause this week, multiple sources told The Hill. The announcement could come as soon as Wednesday and wou…
thehill.com
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The move by HYG today is very bad…so bad that I don’t think positive Ukraine news would interrupt the drumbeat that credit markets being shaky has caused this year when they’ve been shaky.
If the minutes tomorrow don’t cause a reversal in it, then the thesis that we’re waiting to see what happens with CPI is correct. CPI will be hot, but a theory that I’ve seen is that MoM might be the focus and if MoM is still in the range that it’s been in for a while now, then the April print likely dropping to 0.5 on MoM is going to be frontrun (failing that, we'll likely get everyone tilted negative before the next FOMC and get that to end in the same way as March at least temporarily), and what the Fed has been doing is going to amount to just putting up a show in the end.
The biggest concern is that economically connected stuff is trading as if something is wrong. I wanted a 300-400 point rally day from the Dow much more than what happened yesterday. Thought we might get a mild rotation into more economically sensitive stuff, and then we got those Brainard comments.
If the minutes tomorrow don’t cause a reversal in it, then the thesis that we’re waiting to see what happens with CPI is correct. CPI will be hot, but a theory that I’ve seen is that MoM might be the focus and if MoM is still in the range that it’s been in for a while now, then the April print likely dropping to 0.5 on MoM is going to be frontrun (failing that, we'll likely get everyone tilted negative before the next FOMC and get that to end in the same way as March at least temporarily), and what the Fed has been doing is going to amount to just putting up a show in the end.
The biggest concern is that economically connected stuff is trading as if something is wrong. I wanted a 300-400 point rally day from the Dow much more than what happened yesterday. Thought we might get a mild rotation into more economically sensitive stuff, and then we got those Brainard comments.
Sad!student loans to be paused again due to heavy inflation this time.
Biden administration expected to extend student loan pause this week
The Biden administration is expected to announce another extension to the student loan pause this week, multiple sources told The Hill. The announcement could come as soon as Wednesday and wou…
Truly unbelievable. I mean....yes, it is believable with OBiden, but it's unbelievable at the same time.student loans to be paused again due to heavy inflation this time.
Biden administration expected to extend student loan pause this week
The Biden administration is expected to announce another extension to the student loan pause this week, multiple sources told The Hill. The announcement could come as soon as Wednesday and wou…
severestorm
Member
they want to win the midterms https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...emocrats-in-prime-midterm-position/ar-AAVTEzF . Sorry future generations!
Agreed. Why did they all of a sudden lift all of the mask mandates and quiet the clot shot disgustingness?
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Well the crayon eaters have arrived here
Deutsche Bank is the first big bank to forecast a US recession
The Federal Reserve's fight against inflation will spark a recession in the United States that begins late next year, Deutsche Bank warned on Tuesday.
severestorm
Member
have some class
nahhh. Don't worry about it. It's quite revealing.
NCSNOW
Member
What an economic plan unfolding. I guess this is good news. So good that the common working man is getting squeezed so hard, hes gotta start financing his grocery bill. Recession has statrted and well underway. We can see it at work looking at the retail sales forecast changing daily, headed for the cliff. Of course itll be Fall,post election before the players own up/admit to it.
babylonbee.com
Costco Now Offering Convenient Payment Plans On Ground Beef
ISSAQUAH, WA - The popular retail store Costco has announced that due to rising costs created by inflation and food shortages they will now be offering customers payment plan options to pay for beef. 'I didn't know how I was going to pay for a pack of ground beef, but now that Costco is offering...
NCSNOW
Member
Late next year? Its here friend, trust me. 70+ % of the American economy is driven by consumer spending. Ask around, the disposable income in most everyones wallet has dried up the past 9 months.Deutsche Bank is the first big bank to forecast a US recession
The Federal Reserve's fight against inflation will spark a recession in the United States that begins late next year, Deutsche Bank warned on Tuesday.www.cnn.com
severestorm
Member
This is why the market just outlawed margin calls. This will not end well economically....
Government will just give away free money again.
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
What do you mean by that