The SWPC says that a G5 can not be ruled out.This was stolen but damn View attachment 153037
Almost identical forecast/ look as the big one in May, where they were seen into the Deep South!!View attachment 153054
Tommorow night depending on how the CME impacts the Bz tommorow afternoon. We need the Bz to go down in the -20 or lower imo for the Aurora lights to go below 35 latitude.So what time is this getting going tonight? I’ll set an alarm if need be.
worth noting in May the BT was consistently in the 40s and even 50s, touched 70 at one point, and BZ shot down to near -50. Gonna be hard to beat that and I doubt we will. But we need either a consistent BZ value of -15> along with a Bt (interplanetary magnetic field) of 20 or more to get Aurora/SAR arcs into the SE US. I think it’s possible, especially if we get a flux rope towards the middle-end of the CME that’s pointed south, which favors stable but -BZ. Better hope it’s not pointed north. But I have hope considering the flux rope days ago only contained -15 BZ/14-16 BT (IMF) and substorms/SAR arcs was visible across NC/TN/AR. Solar wind should be much stronger this go around as well with up to 700-800km/sec and higher density
Keep a eye on this tomorrow, can be seen at spaceweatherlive.com
View attachment 153088
Good for you fro for learning something different. No idea what your talking about.worth noting in May the BT was consistently in the 40s and even 50s, touched 70 at one point, and BZ shot down to near -50. Gonna be hard to beat that and I doubt we will. But we need either a consistent BZ value of -15> along with a Bt (interplanetary magnetic field) of 20 or more to get Aurora/SAR arcs into the SE US. I think it’s possible, especially if we get a flux rope towards the middle-end of the CME that’s pointed south, which favors stable but -BZ. Better hope it’s not pointed north. But I have hope considering the flux rope days ago only contained -15 BZ/14-16 BT (IMF) and substorms/SAR arcs was visible across NC/TN/AR. Solar wind should be much stronger this go around as well with up to 700-800km/sec and higher density
Keep a eye on this tomorrow, can be seen at spaceweatherlive.com
View attachment 153088
I'd say we're looking decent?worth noting in May the BT was consistently in the 40s and even 50s, touched 70 at one point, and BZ shot down to near -50. Gonna be hard to beat that and I doubt we will. But we need either a consistent BZ value of -15> along with a Bt (interplanetary magnetic field) of 20 or more to get Aurora/SAR arcs into the SE US. I think it’s possible, especially if we get a flux rope towards the middle-end of the CME that’s pointed south, which favors stable but -BZ. Better hope it’s not pointed north. But I have hope considering the flux rope days ago only contained -15 BZ/14-16 BT (IMF) and substorms/SAR arcs was visible across NC/TN/AR. Solar wind should be much stronger this go around as well with up to 700-800km/sec and higher density
Keep a eye on this tomorrow, can be seen at spaceweatherlive.com
View attachment 153088