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Misc Space Weather

This weekend looks promising for mid latitudes. Nice X1.1 flare from AR-13784. Current forecast from NASA M2M during the hit this weekend is a KP index ranging from 4-7 (G2-G3) Just a couple days ago the KP spiked at 7 and there was sightings of the Aurora the in the mountains/Virginia, I saw a faint green hue behind the clouds during the strongest sub storm although the clouds ruined it. It’s worth noting that this region (13784) is rotating into earths view, and it’s extremely active. Still Has X-flare class potential. Biggest downside to this CME is the speed is quite slow. Need to hope for some really -BZ (preferably -20 and below). Another big possibility is we get another faster CME that trails this one coming up and eventually merges. That would be a dream come true
 
Oth, here’s my shots from May. If there wasn’t cloud cover the other night I would have gotten some nice shots but it is what it is. Really would love another shot at an Aurora these were so out of focus and I was so unprepared for it. Unfortunately was drunk this night 75824664-F4D1-4F53-B721-99C27F63EF7D.jpegA222C3B4-2CC5-4912-9640-3147F8E6D3C8.jpeg43BF485B-C9BD-441A-AA4D-8B5D0F1A12B4.jpeg9BA7E236-D95A-4F12-ADD3-ADAF5FD7713F.jpeg
 
GoDuke said:
These seem like they’re happening more and more often. What gives?
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Current solar cycle is approaching its peak. We're in a relatively active one as well compared to SC 24, which didn't have a high peak at all. The increase of sunspots with the magnetic fields capable of generating CME's are much higher than what has been seen in decades.
 
I got to see them in North Alabama while I was watching the Perseid meteor shower Sunday night/Monday morning. Unforgettable!!! Also saw starlink and some kind of UFOs and I only use that term because i have no idea what i saw so the Unidentified part is really baffling me.
 
Unfortunately the slow speed of the X1 flare approaching this weekend looks to limit the overall impacts, maybe G2 conditions at most, which isn’t ideal for the upper portions of the SE/mountains. We need at least a strong G3-G4 in order to start seeing Aurora on the horizon especially in areas with less light pollution and strong G4+ conditions for widespread auroras visible to more southern latitudes. We better hope that the overall CME is denser and somehow has a lot of -BZ which could create a good or few good substorms in an overall mid impact. There has been surprises before though.
Good thing we are in an active period of the sun cycle. Feel like we aren’t done yet.
 
Remember, here’s a chart of the overall levels. For US in the SE, to see Aurora. We want a G4+. It is difficult to get there. But if there’s a time it could happen, the window is still open for at least the next 1.5 years during the peak of the solar cycle. 727E651A-C801-4D00-9AC1-87E06B0D4782.png
 
Forecasted G3 or greater conditions !! If this holds tonight with southward moving BZ look out for auroras even down to the SE !!
 
GoDuke said:
So is this something that could bring northern lights to NC?
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I saw this. Pretty big on the metric scale. But think jury is out for a few hours on any grid,radio issues. CME stuff is hard to gauge.
I can tell the disk,sun is looking, facing right at us where the fireworks went off. So its aimed right. I just dont know what kind of ammo is headed our way.

Edit: My answer, Nothing Burger

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Certainly not anything super amazing. And wow, the street light is so bright! But I definitely think my camera picked up hints of the northern lights tonight. Not as spectacular as this last spring, for sure. But considering I live just north of Atlanta - still super cool!
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So what time is this getting going tonight? I’ll set an alarm if need be.
 
worth noting in May the BT was consistently in the 40s and even 50s, touched 70 at one point, and BZ shot down to near -50. Gonna be hard to beat that and I doubt we will. But we need either a consistent BZ value of -15> along with a Bt (interplanetary magnetic field) of 20 or more to get Aurora/SAR arcs into the SE US. I think it’s possible, especially if we get a flux rope towards the middle-end of the CME that’s pointed south, which favors stable but -BZ. Better hope it’s not pointed north. But I have hope considering the flux rope days ago only contained -15 BZ/14-16 BT (IMF) and substorms/SAR arcs was visible across NC/TN/AR. Solar wind should be much stronger this go around as well with up to 700-800km/sec and higher density
Keep a eye on this tomorrow, can be seen at spaceweatherlive.com
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Myfrotho704_ said:
worth noting in May the BT was consistently in the 40s and even 50s, touched 70 at one point, and BZ shot down to near -50. Gonna be hard to beat that and I doubt we will. But we need either a consistent BZ value of -15> along with a Bt (interplanetary magnetic field) of 20 or more to get Aurora/SAR arcs into the SE US. I think it’s possible, especially if we get a flux rope towards the middle-end of the CME that’s pointed south, which favors stable but -BZ. Better hope it’s not pointed north. But I have hope considering the flux rope days ago only contained -15 BZ/14-16 BT (IMF) and substorms/SAR arcs was visible across NC/TN/AR. Solar wind should be much stronger this go around as well with up to 700-800km/sec and higher density
Keep a eye on this tomorrow, can be seen at spaceweatherlive.com
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Myfrotho704_ said:
worth noting in May the BT was consistently in the 40s and even 50s, touched 70 at one point, and BZ shot down to near -50. Gonna be hard to beat that and I doubt we will. But we need either a consistent BZ value of -15> along with a Bt (interplanetary magnetic field) of 20 or more to get Aurora/SAR arcs into the SE US. I think it’s possible, especially if we get a flux rope towards the middle-end of the CME that’s pointed south, which favors stable but -BZ. Better hope it’s not pointed north. But I have hope considering the flux rope days ago only contained -15 BZ/14-16 BT (IMF) and substorms/SAR arcs was visible across NC/TN/AR. Solar wind should be much stronger this go around as well with up to 700-800km/sec and higher density
Keep a eye on this tomorrow, can be seen at spaceweatherlive.com
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Good for you fro for learning something different. No idea what your talking about.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
worth noting in May the BT was consistently in the 40s and even 50s, touched 70 at one point, and BZ shot down to near -50. Gonna be hard to beat that and I doubt we will. But we need either a consistent BZ value of -15> along with a Bt (interplanetary magnetic field) of 20 or more to get Aurora/SAR arcs into the SE US. I think it’s possible, especially if we get a flux rope towards the middle-end of the CME that’s pointed south, which favors stable but -BZ. Better hope it’s not pointed north. But I have hope considering the flux rope days ago only contained -15 BZ/14-16 BT (IMF) and substorms/SAR arcs was visible across NC/TN/AR. Solar wind should be much stronger this go around as well with up to 700-800km/sec and higher density
Keep a eye on this tomorrow, can be seen at spaceweatherlive.com
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I'd say we're looking decent?

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