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Severe Severe Wx Threat: March 28-31, 2017

3km NAM at 7pm and 10pm CDT Thursday night. Coastal convection is far off of the coast, and not playing a major role for north-central Alabama.

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We've had some interesting storms so far in the past 2 weeks
Last week that event that rolled thru my neck of woods great straight line winds and heavy rain as the main line came thru everyone got about 10-15 minutes of some high sustained winds. Earlier this week just how the storm came thru heading NNE and then basically shifting SSE was pretty neat to see on Radar and on my way home some of the crazy lightening shows were going on...but neither of those storms were set for tornado development this one is the truth first one who setup is much more supportive to tornadoes this season
 
Jon said:
CIPS analogs from the latest Nam

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I'm not quite sure how the data builds up this analogs but it's fun to look at I suppose the analog spits out a % of threat level based on historical data of previous storms and results?
 
I don't like this wording from the day 2 SPC at all.

Several 00z cam
solutions that extend into the Day2 period indicate discrete
supercell mode will be preferred with the activity, suggesting a
favorable environment for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.
Strong tornadoes and very large hail will be possible in the MDT
risk area. The eastward extent of low level moisture will be a
limiting factor to how far east the significant severe threat will
develop. Nevertheless, strong to severe storms may reach eastern
KY/TN and parts of AL during the evening.

As of now I'm near the edge of the moderate risk. Hopefully this will not work out but only time will tell.


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malak05 said:
I'm not quite sure how the data builds up this analogs but it's fun to look at I suppose the analog spits out a % of threat level based on historical data of previous storms and results?
Click to expand...

Pretty much. You can see the list of the top 15 analogs (this is created from taking a domain from model output and only analyzing what's in that box)
For instance here's the SE domain in purple box, CIPS searches for analog dates that resemble the upper atmosphere of this specific model output in time 00z 3/31 from the Nam
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It then generates storm report probabilities in a heat map.


you can see the analogs in date form or table form. I like this with the practically perfect spc outlooks
http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F036&rundt=2017032912&map=thbPPF


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Jon said:
CIPS analogs from the latest Nam

beafc2f4a8d12cb0febd806ce33e0924.jpg

7d69a2aedb2957887178572ec5c84272.jpg



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Click to expand...


I actually agree with that. Don't be surprised if the better tornado threat is farther south than forecasted. The best chance may be in that area as the upper level winds have better turning with height and there is less forcing to try to line it out.
 
Arcc said:
I actually agree with that. Don't be surprised if the better tornado threat is farther south than forecasted. The best chance may be in that area as the upper level winds have better turning with height and there is less forcing to try to line it out.
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Yeah looking at the models I would suspect that from MS/AL border all the way thru Birmingham to the West Metro of Atlanta and about points 30 miles south & north of that will be the best areas for Strong storm development late tomorrow.
 
malak05 said:
Yeah looking at the models I would suspect that from MS/AL border all the way thru Birmingham to the West Metro of Atlanta and about points 30 miles south & north of that will be the best areas for Strong storm development late tomorrow.
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I think the wedge will weaken storms as the move into west ga.
 
CoreyTheSecond said:
I think the wedge will weaken storms as the move into west ga.
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I don't know the wedge is notorious for weaking storms into Georgia but that's mostly from the Metro area moving NE most of time if your close to border you get it right at or before it starts to weaken
 
malak05 said:
I don't know the wedge is notorious for weaking storms into Georgia but that's mostly from the Metro area moving NE most of time if your close to border you get it right at or before it starts to weaken
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True, but a lot of times the wedge pushes into west ga too. Not sure if this one will do that or not.
 
Nws in bham isn't buying into the gulf complex being that big of an inhibitor. Saying it may form too late and too far south


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