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Severe Severe weather threat April 17-19

Solid amounts of SBcape already, DCAPE is trying to build in now, area between the 2 areas of rain/storms has time to build in more SBCAPE/ more Theta-E advection BE90428C-A4A3-47CD-BB5C-3F6913ED8D18.jpeg
 
Sun has popped in and out and the winds are howling here. Very strong South winds gusting over 40 mph at times already.

I see tornado watches en mass have been issued. Clouds are racing. Low level clouds about 10°-20° deviated from middle level clouds.

Definitely has that feel today...and that look
 
There are some strong storms moving NE down in south/central and east Georgia headed towards South Carolina...a couple of have radar indicated tornados being reported right now....you guys in South Carolina need to be on the lookout because these storms are starting to really get their acts together.
 
Snowed In said:
There are some strong storms moving NE down in south/central and east Georgia headed towards South Carolina...a couple of have radar indicated tornados being reported right now....you guys in South Carolina need to be on the lookout because these storms are starting to really get their acts together.
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Agreed. I had some discrete cells earlier this morning that really put down some heavy rain in a short time. Already can hear that roaring aloft in surges... set up hasn't been like this in years.
 
The southern end of that first batch is getting ugly fast over SE NC....could see some quick spin ups with that area.
 
The Macon radar is certainly a joy right now on the NWS site. A few radar indicated tornado warnings with storms that might be heading towards me because they're lifting northeast.
 
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Mesoscale Discussion 0400
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0954 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina...northeast South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 191454Z - 191630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts
and perhaps a tornado or two are possible in the next few hours.
Given the sparse nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is
uncertain in the near term, though a WW may be needed in association
with upstream convection later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A surface low continues to deepen across eastern
Tennessee, triggering a mass response in the low-level flow fields,
with a broad low-level jet transporting deep (925-850 mb) moisture
across the Coastal Piedmont Region. A confluence band, delineating
the axis of the aforementioned low-level moisture transport, has
triggered convection within the past few hours, within a
destabilizing environment.

Currently, the ambient thermodynamic environment is characterized by
deep low-level moisture, but with mediocre low and mid-level lapse
rates (around 5.5-6.0 C/km throughout a deep tropospheric layer),
with around 500 J/kg MLCAPE common across the area. Regarding the
kinematic environment, effective bulk shear values of 40-50 knots
and 250 m2/s2 effective SRH is in place across much of the
Carolinas. Given further intensification of the surface low, the
aforementioned shear environment is expected to stay in place over
the next several hours. In addition, with further heating, MLCAPE
may increase to 1000 J/kg. This buoyancy/shear parameter space may
support organized convection, including rotating cells capable of
producing isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado over
the next few hours. Still, convection within this confluence zone is
separated from stronger deep-layer ascent, and given the relatively
poor lapse rate environment, the severe threat is expected to remain
relatively sparse in the short term.

A WW issuance is uncertain in the near term, though a WW issuance is
likely in association with the development of upstream convection
across the western Carolinas, when deep-layer ascent has increased.
 
I believe the moisture over eastern NC can help slow down the main line and promote more heating and isolated storms further west for central NC...kind of like moisture robbing but increases discrete supercells to the west this time of day. Wilmington NC has warnings for 70mph winds and mentions a tornado is possible within the thunderstorm warning.
 
Watching the storms near Hickory NC to the SC border area. I wouldn’t rule out a long track tornado for the western Piedmont into the Piedmont Triad.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I believe the moisture over eastern NC can help slow down the main line and promote more heating and isolated storms further west for central NC...kind of like moisture robbing but increases discrete supercells to the west this time of day. Wilmington NC has warnings for 70mph winds and mentions a tornado is possible within the thunderstorm warning.
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I am hoping the rain we are having here now will keep instability down for later on. But if it stops raining before later this afternoon, it could act like a sauna and just increase the instability.
 
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