Nah SW GA and SE AL still pretty ripe for some severe storms and other area will see some high winds again once this first line comes thru GA we will probably see another main line swing thru a few hours later... It's just this main line has moved faster and held together when most models had it phasing out
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Severe Severe weather threat April 17-19
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
Nah SW GA and SE AL still pretty ripe for some severe storms and other area will see some high winds again once this first line comes thru GA we will probably see another main line swing thru a few hours later... It's just this main line has moved faster and held together when most models had it phasing out
Fountainguy97
Member
What has happened is the MCS has accelerated out in front of the main front. The hrrr hinted at this today but not to this degree.
Below you can see the frontogenesis is back with the secondary line. This should take over tonight as the first MCS dies.
Here is a screen shot showing radar. (Saving the image doesn’t save the radar layer)
Basically this mcs will die tonight and the main front will take over again. So we will reset for tomorrow. This shouldn’t have any major implications for storms tomorrow.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
So this line the NAM has at 7 or 8 am rolling though here is still possible? I personally thing it won't have time or energy to reload for GA, but for the Carolinas that sounds plausible.
The fact that that MCS has survived with 250-500 jkg of SFC CAPE shows how much low level shear this thing is working with, impressive, now just imagine what this line might possibly work with tommorow if areas of 1500-3000 jkg SFC CAPE manage to develop tommorow
Fountainguy97
Member
Yeah I would be skeptical. We are talking abt a line coming Through at the weakest part of the day when it comes to instability. I’d follow hrrr trends rather than 3km. It’s done well recently.
There could be some segments that are severe levels but I wouldn’t expect too much.
RollTide18
Member
Yeah the HRRR had discrete clusters around my area (MGM) by this time but so far everything has stayed linear.
Fountainguy97
Member
Yeah very true. Hrrr has the line dying right at sunset and when it hits less energy. The big question mark is how much instability will there Be after these morning batches of storms.
It’ll be an active day either way. Latest hrrr has 40-45knt gusts out in front of storms.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Per alabama power: As of 7:55 pm, there are approximately 49,000 outages due to the severe weather moving across our state. There 27,214 outages reported in the Tuscaloosa area; 6,332 in the Mobile area; 15,456 in the Birmingham area. Call 800-888-2726 to report a power outage.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Not the kind of stuff that I like to see, but then again the short range models are apparently doing bad even in short range again here:
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Latest for NC from WRAL met Mike Maze.
Showers and storms are likely to come in two rounds tomorrow. Here's the Time of Arrival for the 2nd stronger round of storms that are likely to be later in the day and evening. The threat looks like it will be over for most of us by 10PM tomorrow night. Be aware, we are likely going to be placed in a Tornado Watch at some point tomorrow.
Showers and storms are likely to come in two rounds tomorrow. Here's the Time of Arrival for the 2nd stronger round of storms that are likely to be later in the day and evening. The threat looks like it will be over for most of us by 10PM tomorrow night. Be aware, we are likely going to be placed in a Tornado Watch at some point tomorrow.
Everyone of those small discrete cells ahead of that main line has potential to have rotation.... somebody in central/eastern NC going to see some tor warned cells early on if models verify.
Almost in the same way models struggle with CAD in winter I've seen time and time again where they struggle with MCS's accelerating out front like this.... certainly fly in the ointment at times. Dynamic but complex system
Fountainguy97
Member
Yep we have seen well organized MCS structure travel across multiple states and last 48+ hrs. They take a while to slow down. I doubt tonight’s MCS will have much of any impact for tomorrow as it’s slowing down quickly now
Very big deal here, moderate rain and 10mph gusts oh my.
How lucky
Chiliphil1
Member
Chiliphil1
Member
Is it still looking like a secondary line will fire in the morning across Georgia? My predictive radar apps are confused by this system. It’s showing the current line of storms dissipating and a second line forming and coming through around 5 am.
Hrrr is slowing this down, hmmm ?
Chiliphil1
Member
Guess that’s that. 