I think you will be north of the warm front...prob no go for severe there. maybe some elevated stuff yes.What about north of ya Delta? Say Athens area.
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I think you will be north of the warm front...prob no go for severe there. maybe some elevated stuff yes.What about north of ya Delta? Say Athens area.
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like how? good for severe or bad? They are what... 6.8 ish. That should be suffice right?
no worries. damn! for the cold season that looks kind of scary to be honest.Also my b I thought you said soundings, sometimes I don’t read good lol @deltadog03 View attachment 74980View attachment 74981View attachment 74982
Normally with setups around Dixie, low level lapse rates struggle to get above 6C, above 6C is favorable for tornadoes, 6.8 is more then enoughlike how? good for severe or bad? They are what... 6.8 ish. That should be suffice right?
ok, that's what I was thinking as well. Ya, I would be surprised, especially if 00z euro continues this trend (euro has been very consistent with this so far) if SPC doesn't highlight a D4 area.Normally with setups around Dixie, low level lapse rates struggle to get above 6C, above 6C is favorable for tornadoes, 6.8 is more then enough
Well I have the concern that the area depicted in CAPE and Lightning Density you posted are some of the worst outcomes from a historical standpoint, for Winter Month events in GAThe euro depicts 3 possible scenarios, the 1st one (blue) is a QLCS/embedded supercells along the cold front, with a wind/tornado threat, also has the best low level moisture/cape, it also shows a slowly lifting warm front/wedge front (red) we know what these can do and have done in the past, soundings along it depict decent CAPE/moderate shear, sometimes you can get enhanced SRH, and sometimes storms can push the warm front even further south themselves with there own OFBs. The 3rd area (Yellow) is a question mark and just depends on the forcing, bet it’s the area to watch given the more free environment. The euro does show capping in the yellow area, for example View attachment 74985View attachment 74983View attachment 74984
Yeah, outbreaks like 3/3/19 come to mindWell I have the concern that the area depicted in CAPE and Lightning Density you posted are some of the worst outcomes from a historical standpoint, for Winter Month events in GA
I would like to see this move about 30 miles north.The euro depicts 3 possible scenarios, the 1st one (blue) is a QLCS/embedded supercells along the cold front, with a wind/tornado threat, also has the best low level moisture/cape, it also shows a slowly lifting warm front/wedge front (red) we know what these can do and have done in the past, soundings along it depict decent CAPE/moderate shear, sometimes you can get enhanced SRH, and sometimes storms can push the warm front even further south themselves with there own OFBs. The 3rd area (Yellow) is a question mark and just depends on the forcing, bet it’s the area to watch given the more free environment. The euro does show capping in the yellow area, for example View attachment 74985View attachment 74983View attachment 74984
And 2/10/2000Yeah, outbreaks like 3/3/19 come to mind
Euro looked pretty much the same from yesterday’s 12z run. Pretty impressive setup I saw.