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Severe Severe weather threat (2/15 - 2/17)

Here's the 12z HREF for tomorrow. Looks like a legit elevated supercell threat for @deltadog03. All the sfc based CAPE is down near the FL border, so tornado threat probably limited or non-existent in Macon unless the warm front is a lot further north than forecast.

View attachment 74873


View attachment 74874
Lmao thunder is gonna be loud as heck Monday night with all that MUcape over the inversion, camera time 009F12B1-0B70-4558-B39D-68FD319201DF.pngBEBEC1B7-F13D-4816-A75C-B0F828AC7CC2.pngC1374B4F-394F-4660-82D4-E1EF0858A51C.png
 
Would be epic if the inversion went away and we got actual severe weather !

Best way we can do that is just have this low track further NW increase divergence over the CAD dome and rain really hard into the low-level inversion, that would accentuate lateral mixing which would erode the CAD faster. Might get real close to some sfc based CAPE here in Fayetteville
 
For SENC, ...

Elevated instability
introduces chance for thunder Monday night, though despite
decent shear present, lingering stable layer at the surface
could hinder severe weather development. Trailing cold front
moves across Tuesday afternoon, ushering in dry air and finally
scattering clouds that have been in place for almost 6 days at
that point.
 
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