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Severe Severe weather threat (2/15 - 2/17)

Myfrotho704_ said:
Normally with setups around Dixie, low level lapse rates struggle to get above 6C, above 6C is favorable for tornadoes, 6.8 is more then enough
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ok, that's what I was thinking as well. Ya, I would be surprised, especially if 00z euro continues this trend (euro has been very consistent with this so far) if SPC doesn't highlight a D4 area.
 
The euro depicts 3 possible scenarios, the 1st one (blue) is a QLCS/embedded supercells along the cold front, with a wind/tornado threat, also has the best low level moisture/cape, it also shows a slowly lifting warm front/wedge front (red) we know what these can do and have done in the past, soundings along it depict decent CAPE/moderate shear, sometimes you can get enhanced SRH, and sometimes storms can push the warm front even further south themselves with there own OFBs. The 3rd area (Yellow) is a question mark and just depends on the forcing, bet it’s the area to watch given the more free environment. The euro does show capping in the yellow area, for example 41EA5113-C703-40FB-A765-19EE70D8F746.png843C863D-C726-4C90-A228-DCBC6B6499F8.jpegDB75D73C-CB8B-404C-AA93-D07F37CD7568.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The euro depicts 3 possible scenarios, the 1st one (blue) is a QLCS/embedded supercells along the cold front, with a wind/tornado threat, also has the best low level moisture/cape, it also shows a slowly lifting warm front/wedge front (red) we know what these can do and have done in the past, soundings along it depict decent CAPE/moderate shear, sometimes you can get enhanced SRH, and sometimes storms can push the warm front even further south themselves with there own OFBs. The 3rd area (Yellow) is a question mark and just depends on the forcing, bet it’s the area to watch given the more free environment. The euro does show capping in the yellow area, for example View attachment 74985View attachment 74983View attachment 74984
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Well I have the concern that the area depicted in CAPE and Lightning Density you posted are some of the worst outcomes from a historical standpoint, for Winter Month events in GA
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The euro depicts 3 possible scenarios, the 1st one (blue) is a QLCS/embedded supercells along the cold front, with a wind/tornado threat, also has the best low level moisture/cape, it also shows a slowly lifting warm front/wedge front (red) we know what these can do and have done in the past, soundings along it depict decent CAPE/moderate shear, sometimes you can get enhanced SRH, and sometimes storms can push the warm front even further south themselves with there own OFBs. The 3rd area (Yellow) is a question mark and just depends on the forcing, bet it’s the area to watch given the more free environment. The euro does show capping in the yellow area, for example View attachment 74985View attachment 74983View attachment 74984
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I would like to see this move about 30 miles north.
 
Kinetic energy increases late tonight, diffluence aloft,
elevated dewpoints and plenty column moisture, and eastward
progressing bands of low-level convergence, should lead to
convection crossing the area after midnight. SW winds near 50 kt
in the 2-3 kft layer, and moderate CAPE bears a watch. The main
axis of mean 0-3 km helicity will track along and west of I-95,
but a secondary axis will lift north adjacent to the rising
warm front, so there appears to be an isolated tornado risk
after midnight but before daylight, as well as a localized
straight-line wind hazard.
 
deltadog03 said:
Euro looked pretty much the same from yesterday’s 12z run. Pretty impressive setup I saw.
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Yep, not nice looking at all, wonder if they go enhanced hatched with this setup tbh or stay slight, I could see those storms along the warm front pushing it south even more more towards SC down to the coast 8564C56C-0545-45E2-A3BF-C409F8BB513A.png77CCAF8B-890B-4421-A0D3-38A3D869AAFB.png920EDE97-05FD-4655-A20D-A34361827A0D.pngF4C24C04-2A38-4A37-B560-9B36996325CC.png53418A12-0623-43E9-B856-C4FCF0D374F3.png87B5D4B1-8807-4B25-8360-3489595458DC.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
SPC upgraded to enhanced hatched 10% tor for today, strong tornado possible View attachment 75214View attachment 75215
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I know the focus of this thread is mostly east of my current location (Fairhope, AL on the eastern shore of Mobile Bay) later today and again on Thursday but I'm a little concerned at the moment about some of the storms to my south and southwest over the Gulf heading this general direction. Can anyone look at the Mobile, AL radar and tell me if I need to be concerned about a possible tornado coming onshore in my area with one of those cells moving onshore from the Gulf in the next couple of hours? A couple of those cells look potentially tornadic in my admittedly limited severe weather knowledge.

Edit: I'm 2 miles north of "Point Clear" directly on Mobile Bay btw
 
Gulf Coast Weather said:
I know the focus of this thread is mostly east of my current location (Fairhope, AL on the eastern shore of Mobile Bay) later today and again on Thursday but I'm a little concerned at the moment about some of the storms to my south and southwest over the Gulf heading this general direction. Can anyone look at the Mobile, AL radar and tell me if I need to be concerned about a possible tornado coming onshore in my area with one of those cells moving onshore from the Gulf in the next couple of hours? A couple of those cells look potentially tornadic in my admittedly limited severe weather knowledge.

Edit: I'm 2 miles north of "Point Clear" directly on Mobile Bay btw
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It’s gonna be close, but they should pass right to your East, I’d watch the very north cell 596AD34C-DD26-4CD4-B0A4-374145E2C5C9.png1CD4EF1F-7914-4320-A1BF-BAEE46B2B139.png
 
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