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Severe Severe Weather April 30th-May 1st

Yet ANOTHER severe bust for AL. While this one isnt as big of one, the local Mets and SPC have a ton of egg to get off their faces this year. Thank goodness for the rain!
 
DadOfJax said:
Yet ANOTHER severe bust for AL. While this one isnt as big of one, the local Mets and SPC have a ton of egg to get off their faces this year. Thank goodness for the rain!
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and thank goodness for the bust!
this isn't winter ... ;)
 
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Anyone try this yet?


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Well as for "threat" overnight into tomm. IMO the main question will be how much the "trash" from MCS today impacts Ga, where the mid levels were not worked over today. As for N/Central AL into TN, those areas will most likely be able to rebound in time.
Thoughts..??
 
gawxnative said:
Well as for "threat" overnight into tomm. IMO the main question will be how much the "trash" from MCS today impacts Ga, where the mid levels were not worked over today. As for N/Central AL into TN, those areas will most likely be able to rebound in time.
Thoughts..??
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Who wants a "threat" and let's go from there ... ;)

Not bein' snarky by any means - just sayin' and askin' :cool:

OK and off the soap box ...
 
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As far as Severe goes, I don't think it will be there. There will be Strong Convection along the Front in these areas, but Flash Flooding and Strong Winds will be the primary event. Some areas in Northeast/Eastern Alabama could end up with close to 4" locally.

gawxnative said:
Well as for "threat" overnight into tomm. IMO the main question will be how much the "trash" from MCS today impacts Ga, where the mid levels were not worked over today. As for N/Central AL into TN, those areas will most likely be able to rebound in time.
Thoughts..??
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Not happy with the latest SPC update. I'm now in a marginal with a 2% risk area for tornados. If there's one thing I hate more than severe weather, it's severe weather overnight. I just hope I'll be able to sleep and wake up in 1 piece.
 
Certainly the type of weather that would favor thunderstorms later on, sheesh 82% humidity would be miserable if the sun wasn't down.

I don't know about severe though, and hopefully the thunderstorms hold off until when predicted tomorrow.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Wasn't like this yesterday...
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Definately not. Looks better down in my neck of the woods but man, the Carolina's are going to see something today. All of PA in an enhanced risk too! Hope everyone is alright today, maybe we'll luck out and it'll mainly be a wind event.
 
Been going back and forth from sun to brief showers here this morning. I know sometimes that can make things more humid and create more instability for the afternoon.
 
The mesoscale models seem to kill the line as it comes through the Triangle, which is typical.
 
It is pretty windy, too. Not sure we will get anything severe later, but sure feels like a stormy day ahead.
 
12z NAM and HR^3 are pathetic for the storm line as it moves through the Triangle later. Worse than before.
 
Just had another downpour and now the sun is out again. It's going to get really muggy out. Just have to see if this back and forth makes things more stable or more ripe for bigger storms.
 
3KM NAM more agressive than HRRR with line coming through the Midlands of SC later. Could be a slight problem/surprise if NAM is correct. After initialization errors of the HRRR a couple weeks back, I'll just assume the NAM has a better idea and expect a line to roll through later on.
 
SD said:
Looks like a nice Carolina split

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Of course. That's how it works. The SPC has trimmed back the slight risk also. I'm not sure how snowstorms and severe weather always know how to break apart at the Triangle, but man, they sure do.
 
Rain Cold said:
Of course. That's how it works. The SPC has trimmed back the slight risk also. I'm not sure how snowstorms and severe weather always know how to break apart at the Triangle, but man, they sure do.
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Sux on snow for sure; but on the other ... ;)
 
Rain Cold said:
Of course. That's how it works. The SPC has trimmed back the slight risk also. I'm not sure how snowstorms and severe weather always know how to break apart at the Triangle, but man, they sure do.
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New HRRR gets storms through Wake before it dies

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SD said:
New HRRR gets storms through Wake before it dies

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Next one will break the line up again. I honestly can't remember the last time we had a legit storm threat here.
 
Since the tornado that hit Raleigh in 2011 it seems whenever there is a threat of severe storms mentioned, especially if we're in a watch, most if the time we don't have any storms at all. We end up having more severe storms when there isn't a watch or any threat really talked up. It has happened that way for the past few years.
 
The tornado outbreak of April 14–16, 2011 was among the largest recorded tornado outbreaks in U.S. history, producing 178 confirmed tornadoes across 16 states and severe destruction on all three days of the outbreak. A total of 38 people were killed from tornadoes and an additional five people were killed as a result of straight-line winds associated with the storm system. The outbreak of severe weather and tornadoes led to 43 deaths in the Southern United States. This was the largest number of fatalities in an outbreak in the United States since the 2008 Super Tuesday tornado outbreak. However this outbreak was soon surpassed no less than two weeks later by the 2011 Super outbreak, which killed 324 people.
 
pcbjr said:
T'storms - yup! Big, bad storms that require chain saws and a coroner --- :mad:
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Not a big fan of death. But high winds and large hail are fun to watch. You have to clean up later, though, which kind of sucks.
 
Rain Cold said:
which kind of sucks.
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Couldn't agree more - and I'll get off my soap box with one more thought.

Hell, CR, you as well as anyone know I love weather as much or probably more than most ... but I also have this soft spot for folks who wake up and want to get on with life today and then all --- fill in the word(s) --- breaks loose, and well, that sux ...

But that's just me, and like I said - off the air ... o_O
 
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Storms firing up in the Triad with some severe storm warnings to the west.
 
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