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Severe Severe Weather 3/27-3/28 2021

metwannabe said:
Was just thinking same thing, can it clear out and destabilize enough? Seems the atmosphere been pretty worked over, guess we will see.
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The band in the mountains will make or break today i think. If it starts thinning out and falling apart we can destabilize for the front later. If it continues as is abs we are cloudy with showers through mid afternoon it'll be hard to destabilize before the front.
 
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Looking like it's going to be another one of those slight risk days that turns into clouds and showers. Line crossing the mountains is likely the deal killer.
 
Rain Cold said:
Looking like it's going to be another one of those slight risk days that turns into clouds and showers. Line crossing the mountains is likely the deal killer.
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HRRR basically keeps that first line intact all the way to the coast, if that happens it's it'll be a no go
 
SD said:
The band in the mountains will make or break today i think. If it starts thinning out and falling apart we can destabilize for the front later. If it continues as is abs we are cloudy with showers through mid afternoon it'll be hard to destabilize before the front.
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NWS AFD mentions same issues, calling it a "nowcast" situation. Also not sure those winds they keep mentioning of gust to 40 will materialize if we don't clear out. I assume that's why they chose to not go with an advisory
 
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metwannabe said:
NWS AFD mentions same issues, calling it a "nowcast" situation. Also not sure those winds they keep mentioning of gust to 40 will materialize if we don't clear out. I assume that's why they chose to not go with an advisory
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Seems the further east the better your chances are today. SPC also being cautious and mentioning lack of destabization.

Although additional boundary layer moistening will continue to occur within the broad warm sector, convective-line preceding cloud cover appears likely to temper diurnal destabilization in most areas into the afternoon. The most probable scenario appears to be for increasing linear convective organization east of the Blue Ridge and into the North Carolina Piedmont this afternoon in vicinity of the eastward-advancing cold front. Boundary layer destabilization should remain weak, particularly outside of the North Carolina coastal plain and southeast Virginia, but an organizing/intensifying convective line will be supported by increasing forcing for ascent and cyclogenesis in vicinity of the lower Great Lakes. This linearly organized/fast-moving convection will likely overspread central/eastern portions of North Carolina and Virginia, along with the Delmarva, and potentially as far north as southern New York/southern New England through late afternoon/early evening. Even where surface-based destabilization is minimal, very strong deep-layer winds, accentuated by 50-65 kt southwesterly winds within the lowest 1-3 km AGL, will support the possibility of convectively related wind damage, and possibly some line-embedded circulations capable of relatively brief tornadoes this afternoon into evening.
 
Shaggy said:
Seems the further east the better your chances are today. SPC also being cautious and mentioning lack of destabization.

Although additional boundary layer moistening will continue to occur within the broad warm sector, convective-line preceding cloud cover appears likely to temper diurnal destabilization in most areas into the afternoon. The most probable scenario appears to be for increasing linear convective organization east of the Blue Ridge and into the North Carolina Piedmont this afternoon in vicinity of the eastward-advancing cold front. Boundary layer destabilization should remain weak, particularly outside of the North Carolina coastal plain and southeast Virginia, but an organizing/intensifying convective line will be supported by increasing forcing for ascent and cyclogenesis in vicinity of the lower Great Lakes. This linearly organized/fast-moving convection will likely overspread central/eastern portions of North Carolina and Virginia, along with the Delmarva, and potentially as far north as southern New York/southern New England through late afternoon/early evening. Even where surface-based destabilization is minimal, very strong deep-layer winds, accentuated by 50-65 kt southwesterly winds within the lowest 1-3 km AGL, will support the possibility of convectively related wind damage, and possibly some line-embedded circulations capable of relatively brief tornadoes this afternoon into evening.
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If we clear out soon (getting peaks of sun already), I'd bet we have a better shot of severe with the first line
 
metwannabe said:
NWS AFD mentions same issues, calling it a "nowcast" situation. Also not sure those winds they keep mentioning of gust to 40 will materialize if we don't clear out. I assume that's why they chose to not go with an advisory
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Indeed we will need to get the sun out and mix. Winds even at 925 are ripping so it's not going to take a lot. I'd watch for dews to potentially mix this afternoon too there are lots of upper 50s low 60s on the models. Not sure it'll hurt storm initiation but it still raise the potential for severe wind gusts if we start getting a nice of inverted V soundings
 
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