NWMSGuy
Member
So you're thinking the potential next week will again be further South and away from the Memphis (Midsouth) area?
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Severe weather 2020
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
Shaggy
Member
Could see a pretty busy next 14 days. We always have the chance of seeing the threats dropped like this weekends event was. Quite frankly we saw enough already and we dont need to see anymore. With the 12 confirmed NC tornados and the outbreak earlier in the year we are already pushing strong numbers.
tennessee storm
Member
Today’s global models r hinting at that way for now... course plenty time to watch
I still wouldn’t sleep on the threat for this weekend into early next week, especially near the gulf coast, with flatter flow aloft from the WSW/W and flow in the lower levels from the SW
Wouldn’t take much to trend into something much bigger.
Wouldn’t take much to trend into something much bigger.
Eerily similar to last March 3rd, which produced the Beauregard AL/smith station EF4
Shaggy
Member
Wouldn’t take much to trend into something much bigger.
Models keep this low too flat west to east. If the went from GSP to Richmond then that would have been worse for the carolinas piedmont and coastal zones but as of now the models are in good agreement so this is a deep south threat. The gfs has 989mb 30 miles south of me.
MattLabenzwx
Member
Severe weather season in the plains really looks ramp up next week. Not surprised
So Webber thinks surface low will trend north west so big time severe for western NC again and everyone? All lows have corrected north as time got closer since December
Well given that the gfs is once again building heights more and more each run ahead of the system, it’s quite possible
geez some multi day outbreak looks from the gfs 
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Hey, at least we have a one day break between the severe threats next week.
MattLabenzwx
Member
Just like that the euro completely switched to eastern trough.
this looks so similar to the last big one.... please no 
cd2play
Member
I honestly don't know how much more we can take.
Unfortunately pattern repetition is a thing and it’s held strong this year
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Tornado printer go brrrr
Tis the season 
MattLabenzwx
Member
Will be very interesting to see how the models handle next week. Analogs say severe weather. We shall see
MattLabenzwx
Member
Looks like Tuesday/Wednesday is an Oklahoma severe threat before the threat shifts east towards Dixie.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I just hope that the next ones aren't going to be early in the morning/late at night if they're going to be tornado threats. Those were some legitimately frightening moments for me around 4:45-5:00 AM earlier this week where that storm with a hook signature was closing in and I wasn't for sure on how close it was (as it turned out it was definitely too close for comfort).
Think the one that might be on Sunday might thankfully turn out to be south/southwest of the area though.
Think the one that might be on Sunday might thankfully turn out to be south/southwest of the area though.
amazing picture from my guy @MattLabenzwx
MattLabenzwx
Member
Thanks to you ?
BufordWX
Member
Gfs needs to chill out with these weekend severe weather threats. Trying to get another for next weekend.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
MattLabenzwx
Member
@Myfrotho704_ and I would really appreciate if you follow our weather photography page on twitter, the name is @visual_wx Thanks guys!
RollTide18
Member
MattLabenzwx
Member
We will also discuss the weather pattern, long range weather, and any other phenomenons.
cd2play
Member
I fear that is going to be the pattern for the next few months. &^$@
Strike or spare ?
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Like I said, we seem to be stuck in a pattern of severe weather, and looks like a long severe season.
GFS just giving that reminder that NW flow MCS season and heat isn’t far away
BufordWX
Member
There is just something with severe weather and Sunday this month. Euro looks quite interesting for next Sunday, but of course way way out there and still multiple events occur before we even get there.
This pattern, is just 2020ing
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BufordWX
Member
On top of severe weather you got quite a bit of rain falling with each of these systems over areas that are already having some of their rainiest starts to a year so far. My area for example is at just under 31 inches of rain so far this year.
Of course the 00z Euro is just ugly rain wise. 10 inches of rain near Birmingham over the next 10 days and some pretty hefty totals elsewhere.
If there’s any better news, it’s that This stuff will likely start shifting towards the plains, it’s possibly why the GFS/GEFS show that ridge around day 12-16, GWO looks to swing towards phase 8/1 around the beginning of May 
phase 8/1 are typically supportive of a -PNA/west coast trough and correlate to increased heights East of the Rockies, it’s probably why the GFS/GEFS showed ridging to towards the end of there runs, and the GWO switch happened last May as well, if this switch does indeed happen, it’s time to open up the pools 
as you can see around day 16 on the gefs as the GWO begins to head towards phases supportive of ridging, ridging appears East of the Rockies
phase 8/1 are typically supportive of a -PNA/west coast trough and correlate to increased heights East of the Rockies, it’s probably why the GFS/GEFS showed ridging to towards the end of there runs, and the GWO switch happened last May as well, if this switch does indeed happen, it’s time to open up the pools as you can see around day 16 on the gefs as the GWO begins to head towards phases supportive of ridging, ridging appears East of the Rockies
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
cd2play
Member
With back-to-back storms systems the 2nd half of next week, I almost wonder if there's the possibility they could just merge into one large, multi-day storm event. 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
At least 3 more threats of severe weather on the horizon thru the next 10 days in the southern US. I'll have to admit, even though it's over 7 days out, the last one is generally the most concerning to me & would have the most potential to challenge the Easter weekend outbreak especially from a large-scale forcing standpoint. If you see a deep cut-off upper trough over the Ohio & Tennessee Valleys like this in late April... whoever is southeast of that (most of this forum), you're in big trouble.
