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Severe weather 2020
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
Yeah GWO is going into phases with nina like tendencies, this is a few days old but that’s the AAM looking to go negative, and also tropical forcing should shift soon towards the Indian Ocean and head towards PH3, which honestly could set up a heat dome if things go the way it was last May, but these are indicators towards a active severe pattern in the LR
Don't sleep on Saturday in the Carolinas if we end up more like the Euro. Would be similar to last week but we could have a few hailers/wind issues
Call me crazy for saying this, but the LR GFS IMO is on to something and makes sense with a strong southeast ridge towards the end of the month and a look that would support severe more towards the central US, has support from the GEFS and the somewhat the EPS, MJO headed out of PH1/2 towards the East pacific/maritime continent towards the WH, AN gulf temps, TNI that @MattLabenzwx keeps hinting on our convos is in a favorable state, AAM is about to go negative, ST AAM headed ⬆, this reminds me of last May so much, not saying that we’re gonna 100% bake but it COULD really heat up, like early summer heat, but anyways I think in the long range that’s what the models are starting to pick up on
MattLabenzwx
Member
AAM definitely showing signs of tanking negative which means more La Niña like tendencies in the pattern coming up and with enhancement of subtropical jet this could mean more severe weather in the plains with heat chances in the east with the developing southeast ridge in the longer term.
Attachments
GSP already mentioning it, and also the ECMWF has another double barrel jet at 250mb with this next one
accu35
Member
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- Jan 5, 2017
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Please no lol
The one this weekend thank goodness is trending away, but this one is the one to watch 
Yeah I don't like this setup at all
If these broad, flat waves continue, we are gonna get popped eventually.
The GFS is showing a possible wicked scenario. Verbatim it needs work, but that setup from Tuesday to Friday isn’t good. Whenever you see the back to back threats you have to watch it carefully, because the first is probably the primer to the second.
I doubt it I don't benefit from snow or the copious summer thunderstorms
Also gotta watch this one 
But yeah that’s already a quite favorable look for severe 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Definitely starting to get on board w/ the idea of another significant bout of severe sometime late next week, details remain to be seen, but patterns like this w/ a Kushnir-Branstator type retrogressive blocking high in the N Pacific usually end w/ the Pacific jet undercutting said block & cut-off upper lows emerging into the SW US. Once the Pacific jet retracts & becomes more sinusoidal as tropical forcing moves into the Indian Ocean & Maritime Continent, western US troughs will be favored thru the end of the month.
And boom the southeast ridge has all the room to emerge one that happens, likely gonna see a shift to the plains soon once tropical forcing does switch towards the Indian Ocean/maritime continent
I wonder how long the -nao the models are showing sticks around? Going to cause some issues if we see a more zonal flow across the US and can't real amplify the SE ridge to deflect
Yeeesh this looks mean 
tennessee storm
Member
Next weeks system means business
Here’s a sounding from MS from that system, this one has that look, bouta jump the gun and make a thread on it 
Please wait until the 12z suite.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Beyond this time frame, models indicate another shortwave trough
moving across the Southwest and toward the southern Plains around
Tue/D7 or Wed/D8, and this system may eventually hold severe
potential.
moving across the Southwest and toward the southern Plains around
Tue/D7 or Wed/D8, and this system may eventually hold severe
potential.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Would like to see a bit more run-run consistency between various NWP models, but this system at day 5 could get interesting for those south of I-20. This setup looks considerably more marginal than this past weekend.
Ouch. That is bad. That sounding is about textbook for notable southern tornado outbreaks.
tennessee storm
Member
Ouch... what happened to the se ridge fro? Vanished again...
MattLabenzwx
Member
Here is a sounding for next Tuesday here in Kansas. Really decent though would like to see cape values improve.
Could be multiple days of severe weather from the plains into the east/southeast.
Could be multiple days of severe weather from the plains into the east/southeast.
MattLabenzwx
Member
I also think next Tuesday has some outbreak potential somewhere in the plains. Dynamics, moisture/cape, and wind shear all look good next week.
Jesus not looking good on latest GFS with sub 1000mb storm Eastern Tennessee. Going to see another severe outbreak SOON imo
Here it comes. The waves of these low amp troughs are nuts.
Here it comes. The waves of these low amp troughs are nuts.
quite a favorable pattern with them undercutting the AK ridge
Glamo
Member
Please delete if not allowed, could you explain to me as someone who is just generally lurking here and doesn't yet understand a lot of things about the weather, where this severe weather would be?
Hard to say right now, but the plains into the southeast (Dixie alley) would be favored rn, as we head further into spring things should start shifting into the plains
tennessee storm
Member
Track seems be Dixie alley again... hard believe here midsouth we keep missing the big ones... Memphis area I’m referring to... usually mid April to mid May is our best peak time catch something on the high end.