Severe Severe Threat March 15-16 2026

[SWVAwxfan]

Another big forecast bust by the SPC, as a Trump supporter, not bringing politics into but am, he has defunded NOAA, models are horrible and didnt pick up on it until midnight last night but no change was made to the forecast and SPC outlooks, they should have changed the outlook and looked like a fool instead of canceling schools for a rain storm

Political nonsense has no business here. This was happening before him.

 

[superjames1992]

We will rebuild.

 

[EV/WS]

I wonder if a lot of it has to do with the local mets mot wanting to go against what the SPC is advertising. I don't know why but they just don’t have the best track record with the severe forecasts around NC lately.

Good God … You are exhausting !! You literally spent your entire day talking about Bust, Overnight Clutter, School Bus, SPC, Mets, Break in the Clouds, etc etc. Please take a break from your usual nonsense.

 

[GaWx]

Here’s a tally as of 10:55PM EDT today: only 2 tornadoes and 1 large hail event! But there still were 258 high wind reports! So, it wasn’t exactly quiet:

 

[Ross]

Isn’t his explanation still too much living and dying by the models instead of getting back to good ol’ poor synoptics that were pointing to failure modes far earlier than last night? Jim Tang was pointing out how when the jet streak core is displaced so far to the northeast, the risk area ends up getting cluttered and overworked. This makes sense to me. No fresh feed from the jet streak. Early storms don’t spell overworking necessarily (look how many rounds of tornadoes Alabama got in their famous outbreak). The underlying problem was the placement of the energy players, and that was shown days ago. Why didn’t forecasters rely more on synoptic insights for this one?

yeah i saw that. a buddy of mine in a different group chat also noticed that the entrance/exit regions for the best 'mass removal' were not aligned with our neck of the woods. it certainly seems like forcing was not conducive for high topped, traditional supercells to 'catch' in the environment. that's why you saw so many weak, shallow storms. if the forcing had worked out and we actually worked up some instability then this was going in an april 16th ish trajectory.

same buddy takes pto to storm chase in the plains. and i will give it to the chaser community, who are just as mentally unwell as we are about snow. from what i saw on twitter they sniffed this bust out the second CAMs began to waver yesterday. now, i think it's easier to tweet "it's so over" than to change the narrative of a org like the spc, which is like turning the wheel on an aircraft carrier.

i think a lot of mets across the mid atlantic would have loved to issue a less aggressive forecast today and would privately tell you it would not live up to the hype. however, you don't want to go against the spc, which are indeed a room of smart people and talented severe weather forecasters. going against the grain would be arrogant and confusing to the public, so you toe the line

i AM happy it was a fart and i'm not sending a claim to my insurance but we really burned a ton of forecasting good will today, especially with DC being affected.

Here’s a tally as of 10:55PM EDT today: only 2 tornadoes and 1 large hail event! But there still were 258 high wind reports! So, it wasn’t exactly quiet:

View attachment 195175

while this is a good point and a lot of people saw gusty winds today, unfortunately people will remember schools being closed for breezy gray skies

 

[BrickTamland]

Good God … You are exhausting !! You literally spent your entire day talking about Bust, Overnight Clutter, School Bus, SPC, Mets, Break in the Clouds, etc etc. Please take a break from your usual nonsense.

I thought this was a weather discussion forum.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Here’s a tally as of 10:55PM EDT today: only 2 tornadoes and 1 large hail event! But there still were 258 high wind reports! So, it wasn’t exactly quiet:

View attachment 195175

This gives the event way too much credit, at least in central NC ALL of that came from the FROPA rather than thunderstorms and came after all watches had been canceled. I know there were high winds here but the worst was after the line had passed. That being said, there certainly was plenty of wind energy available aloft so wind reports are not surprising it just took the front to do anything with it as the storms failed earlier

 

[GaWx]

This gives the event way too much credit, at least in central NC ALL of that came from the FROPA rather than thunderstorms and came after all watches had been canceled. I know there were high winds here but the worst was after the line had passed. That being said, there certainly was plenty of wind energy available aloft so wind reports are not surprising it just took the front to do anything with it as the storms failed earlier

These non-thunderstorm high wind reports in C NC were all 65+ knots?