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Severe Severe Threat March 15-16 2026

I think we have too much marine influence to see much here at the immediate coast. Along and west of US 17 could still destabilize enough for a couple tornadoes.
 
Kudos to FFC had no mention of even “possibly severe” for ATL (this was issued at 2:27AM):

REST OF TONIGHT
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE
LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.

MONDAY
CLOUDY IN THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.

So, FFC didn’t bust at all.
 
IMG_3179.jpeg

Little QLCS will move north of Baltimore. No sun here at all. SPC should at minimum drop us to ENH. The MDT is not justified
 
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SD said:
It wouldn't take a lot to recharge this air mass this afternoon ahead of the front. Probably too much debris left over and the tornado threat is way down especially west of US1 but it's not dead dead yet
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Yeah quite a bit of filtered to out right sun here. Storm mode still really messy though.
 
Not getting a single severe storm warning in RDU area when there was an adamant level 4 risk for 2 days straight is a next level best. Historic busts here in RDU

- From 0.5+ inches of ice to just 0.7in of ice pellets in mid to late january
- From 8-12 inches of snow to just 1-3 inches of snow in late january

And now this? I'm fairly new to forecasting. Are these busts common in RDU?
 
SD said:
It wouldn't take a lot to recharge this air mass this afternoon ahead of the front. Probably too much debris left over and the tornado threat is way down especially west of US1 but it's not dead dead yet
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This map seems to match your thinking: note the location of the red area in E NC
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I mean we had this going on in Mars Hill before the sun came up..and that line was pretty damn windy here albeit for a short period of time. idk what happened east (so far) but if this setup ended up missing something it was probably just a smidgen of whatever it was.

I’m not one of those people who complains about a severe weather bust because it gives me anxiety and I’m grateful when it’s goneanimated.gif
 
RAN said:
Not getting a single severe storm warning in RDU area when there was an adamant level 4 risk for 2 days straight is a next level best. Historic busts here in RDU

- From 0.5+ inches of ice to just 0.7in of ice pellets in mid to late january
- From 8-12 inches of snow to just 1-3 inches of snow in late january

And now this? I'm fairly new to forecasting. Are these busts common in RDU?
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Yes.
 
BrickTamland said:
Now there is a tornado watch until 8 PM.

View attachment 195150
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Do you think this tornado watch should have been issued for any of the area covered by it, especially well east?

Meanwhile down here, our heaviest of the day is about to start. There are thunderstorms embedded and some heavy rain, but no severe warnings at least as of yet.
 
Starting to see some rotation along that line of storms near Richlands. As a whole, it looks like that line is starting to organize a bit and I expect to see some quick spin ups on that line, west of US 17.
 
BullCityWx said:
People just need to learn to be glad that we missed on this setup and stop focusing on stupid ---- like the schools being closed etc.
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If a tornado had hit a school or if winds blew trees down where kids couldn't get home people would wander why they were sent to school. They are in a no-win business when trying to make correct decisions. So what they miss a day
 
jackendrickwx said:
The existence of SPC outlooks is starting to bother me from a comms perspective. Without them would you ever have had to say anything more than something like:

“thunderstorms possible most of the day, some could be strong/severe, with tornadoes possible”

Instead we are haggling over what color they put on the website that only wx people look at. There are positives to it and I don’t want to offer too much input since I am 9 years old but just my 2c
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I could go off on this topic, but I won't for the sake of the thread. But there is a lot of overwarning going on these days, which leads to overhyping which leads to overwarning and on and on. The more advanced we get, the more we seem to get caught up in that cycle. Slight, Moderate, and High were just fine, in terms of categories. But now we have 5, plus a general thunderstorm category and all kinds of probability schemes that are different based on the severe type and all kinds of intensity scales that are different, again based on the severe type.

And every storm within a severe storm risk category seems to get warned now. I was probably under 10-15 severe thunderstorm warnings every year when I was in Wake Co. and got actual severe weather (or close to severe weather) 1, maybe 2 times. THAT is what will cause the general public to not take things seriously, if anything will. I know it's not all about what happens at my house, but most people that get put under a warning don't experience the severe part of the storm. Thank goodness, but it happens A LOT. And it gets hyped. And on and on.

And schools close for clouds and wind. I can't wait till they start closing for too much sunshine.
 
POWERSTROKE said:
If a tornado had hit a school or if winds blew trees down where kids couldn't get home people would wander why they were sent to school. They are in a no-win business when trying to make correct decisions. So what they miss a day
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This. My kids missing a grand total of 75 minutes of actual substantive academic instruction (which in itself is presented inefficiently) within all the nonsense fluff of the rest of the day isn’t worth the risk even if that risk fails to materialize.
 
POWERSTROKE said:
If a tornado had hit a school or if winds blew trees down where kids couldn't get home people would wander why they were sent to school. They are in a no-win business when trying to make correct decisions. So what they miss a day
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A lot of kids are safer in a school than they are at home ! I'm not sure a mobile home is safe during a tornado !
 
Rain Cold said:
I could go off on this topic, but I won't for the sake of the thread. But there is a lot of overwarning going on these days, which leads to overhyping which leads to overwarning and on and on. The more advanced we get, the more we seem to get caught up in that cycle. Slight, Moderate, and High were just fine, in terms of categories. But now we have 5, plus a general thunderstorm category and all kinds of probability schemes that are different based on the severe type and all kinds of intensity scales that are different, again based on the severe type.

And every storm within a severe storm risk category seems to get warned now. I was probably under 10-15 severe thunderstorm warnings every year when I was in Wake Co. and got actual severe weather (or close to severe weather) 1, maybe 2 times. THAT is what will cause the general public to not take things seriously, if anything will. I know it's not all about what happens at my house, but most people that get put under a warning don't experience the severe part of the storm. Thank goodness, but it happens A LOT. And it gets hyped. And on and on.

And schools close for clouds and wind. I can't wait till they start closing for too much sunshine.
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Some of this depends on the NWS office. I know the overwarning (especially tornado warnings) used to be a huge problem in Alabama and really isn't at all now.
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
A lot of kids are safer in a school than they are at home ! I'm not sure a mobile home is safe during a tornado !
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It's not about being at school during severe weather. It's about being on busses if it hits then. I don't know why people can't understand this. They can only go by the forecast, and based on the forecast it was the right call to cancel schools here today. Not their fault the forecast busted.
 
IMO a level 4 event forecast to strike in middle of the school day is justification to cancel school. There have been plenty of early dismissal’s in the past for afternoon or evening events and this one was timed such that cancelling was the only logical option between the two. Level 4 days are RARE and should be. The issue here was bumping this to a level 4 yesterday. This will get discussed endlessly after the event as to where the forecast broke down but there were way too many obstacles for this to pan out that it absolutely should’ve been left at a level 3 (still too high) based on parameters and potential with the opportunity to raise it based on overnight trends. I don’t know if there will be a single severe verification in the entire RAH area which for a level 1 or 2 day would be understandable but this is completely unacceptable for having issued a level 4 today. This was an epic bust here. Downeast areas might see some severe so I’m not speaking to them, btw.
 
Rain Cold said:
I could go off on this topic, but I won't for the sake of the thread. But there is a lot of overwarning going on these days, which leads to overhyping which leads to overwarning and on and on. The more advanced we get, the more we seem to get caught up in that cycle. Slight, Moderate, and High were just fine, in terms of categories. But now we have 5, plus a general thunderstorm category and all kinds of probability schemes that are different based on the severe type and all kinds of intensity scales that are different, again based on the severe type.

And every storm within a severe storm risk category seems to get warned now. I was probably under 10-15 severe thunderstorm warnings every year when I was in Wake Co. and got actual severe weather (or close to severe weather) 1, maybe 2 times. THAT is what will cause the general public to not take things seriously, if anything will. I know it's not all about what happens at my house, but most people that get put under a warning don't experience the severe part of the storm. Thank goodness, but it happens A LOT. And it gets hyped. And on and on.

And schools close for clouds and wind. I can't wait till they start closing for too much sunshine.
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You had everything right until the last paragraph. They closed based on the forecast because they don't want kids on busses if a tornado is around. Same thing for snow. It's not their fault if the forecast was wrong. Not sure why it is hard to understand this.
 
Social media reports, some including photos, of the rotation in Forsyth County and a funnel cloud in Stokes County are starting to appear. At least here it was starting early enough in the morning the schools shouldn't take much heat for doing a remote learning day.
 
Several areas of rotations in that mass for storms from Jacksonville up through Kinston, Greenville and Williamston. It's very cluttered and nothing alarming at this point, but just something to keep an eye on.
 
Our tornado watch ended. We’re now getting a line of storms along the leading edge of rain with gusty winds. It looks kind of rough along the coast to my south though I don’t see any severe warnings yet. But this was issued at 1:59PM:


159 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026

..A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LIBERTY...MCINTOSH
BRYAN AND
CHATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 159 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
HARRIS NECK, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...GUSTY WINDS COULD KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED OBJECTS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DARIEN, COFFEE BLUFF, WINDSOR FOREST, MONTGOMERY, VERNONBURG,
HARRIS NECK AND HALFMOON LANDING.
 
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Realized I couldn’t catch up to the speed of the storms and called it a chase. Although did intercept this tornado warning.
 
BrickTamland said:
I don't blame the school officials for making the call, though. They have to go with whatever the forecast calls for.
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Yeah, but back in the day they didn't cancel school for the threat of severe thunderstorms, period.

The thing with schools is a lot of parents work jobs where they can't easily stay home for the day and watch their kids, so it complicates some parents' lives a lot when kids miss school, especially when it's not necessary. For people with flexible schedules or the ability to work from home, it may not be a big deal to miss school for nothing (which happens so many times now), but not everyone is like that.

I don't think we ever missed school for a true "non-event" back when I was in school (which was not very long ago!), so it's just bizarre to me. Maybe I'm just jealous of all the fake snow days I could've gotten.
 
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