Good thing we never really destabilized
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Severe Severe Threat March 15-16 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Good thing we never really destabilized
NorthHillsWx
Member
I am one of those parents, and since January this is the third Monday our kids have had off. On top of the snow days (5 total) this has been over a full work week of days with the kids at home. Both my wife and I work jobs that require us to be in meetings or on calls through the day and these cancellations absolutely wreck our work day. It puts immense pressure on working parents and though I get the abundance of caution, of the 6 weather days we’ve had this year there have really only been 2 that were justified in the actual outcome. At least snow days you can prep for, today caught us totally off guard. I don’t blame the schools but this is a total miss by meteorologists
My school would actually take and teach about severe weather and storms on days like today to preach the importance of understanding what to look out for, watch vs warning, etc. Heck, it's why I love weather now.
BrickTamland
Member
I graduated high school in 92. I remember getting dismissed early at least once in high school because of the threat of severe weather.
NorthHillsWx
Member
We had several early dismissals I can remember but since this was progged to come through around noon that wasn’t an option. Once again, I don’t blame schools, level 4 events are rare and should be respected, but that puts much more scrutiny on forecasters when they call for an event like this and it doesn’t pan out. Level 4/5 days are reserved for exceptional events and even some of the “busts” still produced significant severe weather. This legitimately produced almost nothing in the entire RAH warning area
JHS
Member
Storm Prediction Center Today's Storm Reports
Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
This says a LOT here.
I have so many questions about this event I don't know where to even begin. Just had a big severe warned complex roll through and while the rain was heavy, there wasn't so much as a gust of wind and I counted one rumble of thunder. Heaviest returns right over us too. In fact, there hasn't been anything resembling more than a light breeze all day. ILM was discussing possible wind advisories 24 hours ago.
It's been a recurring theme going back easily 5 years now. Heavy radar returns but ground truth not verifying. Is it possible the radars aren't calibrated properly? It certainly SEEMS like something changed around that 2020-2021 period but I don't have any evidence beyond what I've seen with my own eyes. It's not just in my neck of the woods either. This has happened all over NC and SC and probably beyond.
It's been a recurring theme going back easily 5 years now. Heavy radar returns but ground truth not verifying. Is it possible the radars aren't calibrated properly? It certainly SEEMS like something changed around that 2020-2021 period but I don't have any evidence beyond what I've seen with my own eyes. It's not just in my neck of the woods either. This has happened all over NC and SC and probably beyond.
NorthHillsWx
Member
This makes forecasting discussions even more interesting for me. These busts showing that they can still occur despite great advancements must be humbling to the great met. profession.
I graduated way back in 1983 and I was only dismissed once because of severe weather. It was in April of 1975 and Wake County had multiple tornado warnings that day so classes were dismissed at 1:00 PM if I remember correctly.
What did the Google model show? Is AI useful in these mesoscale situations?
Tsappfrog20
Member
So I’m not a parent or married for that matter but I don’t think it was a bad decision in closing school! I don’t think any parent should have been caught off guard with this decision because the forecast never really changed until late last night after the decisions had already been made! Did it end up being a bust YES DEFINITELY WAS but that in our case was a good thing and I’m grateful that decisions were made with the forecast that were available to them at the time
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I graduated in 2010 and I never remember it happening. Granted, I mostly lived in the Triad which gets somewhat less severe weather than the Triangle, on average. We may have gotten an early dismissal around Hurricane Isabel (which was elementary school for me, I think), although I might be making that up.
Of course, maybe it happened once, I'm not 100% sure. Regardless, an early dismissal is very different than just canceling the entire school day. I've noticed that is one thing you hardly ever see nowadays. Two-hour delays, early dismissals, etc. When I was in school, we got a lot of two-hour delays and some early dismissals; now, those seem to largely be a thing of the past for some reason. They just close.
ryanardo
Member
Another big forecast bust by the SPC, as a Trump supporter, not bringing politics into but am, he has defunded NOAA, models are horrible and didnt pick up on it until midnight last night but no change was made to the forecast and SPC outlooks, they should have changed the outlook and looked like a fool instead of canceling schools for a rain storm
BrickTamland
Member
We almost always need some sun here to provide the spark for severe storms. Is it difficult to tell how long the rain and clouds will stick around and limit instability? I thought that was pretty basic forecasting. Maybe the local mets feel they have to go with whatever the SPC says instead of disagreeing with them in cases like this.
BrickTamland
Member
Downeastnc
Member
Props for saying this, however I still think at the point the models started to show this was a bust it was to late to put the genie back in the bottle.
Dunkman
Member
The winds with this cold front passage in the Triad are by far the strongest of the day. It’s not quite over for people to the east.
NorthHillsWx
Member
Do appreciate Mets coming out and calling it a bust and that their forecasts were wrong. As I’ve thought about this some more, with my 2 and 4 year olds destroying my house, I think Mets, NWS, and SPC could REALLY have done a better job vocalizing potential fail modes for today. A level 4 risk is high confidence, but there were ample warning signs it would not materialize and I can’t for the life of me find more than one or two met posts explaining them. I don’t believe level 4 should ever have been issued especially yesterday but there certainly could’ve been better discussion about ways we could have avoided severe weather too
Btownheel
Member
I will say, the frontal passage just now wasn’t overhyped. I’d guess gusts close to 60 and sideways rain bands with likely a 10+ degree temp drop in 90 seconds.
Rest of the day was a bust but that got our attention.
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Rest of the day was a bust but that got our attention.
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NorthHillsWx
Member
It’s funny there isn’t even a watch beforehand when everyone’s coming back from work vs the all day tornado watch earlier that resulted in nothing
The mets who come out and say the busted forecast is actually a good thing because we avoided the bad impacts are always amusing. It misses the point so badly it could almost be considered gaslighting…
i don't think any funding lapses/issues contributed to this. good ole fashioned nothing burger
totally agree with this; mod yesterday was crossing the rubicon
i think they miss that a forecast like this genuinely spikes people's anxiety moreso than other events, and now that school closes it can create a logistics issue. 'actually it's GOOD we sucked here' is a tough bridge to sell
blueheronNC
Member
Isn’t his explanation still too much living and dying by the models instead of getting back to good ol’ poor synoptics that were pointing to failure modes far earlier than last night? Jim Tang was pointing out how when the jet streak core is displaced so far to the northeast, the risk area ends up getting cluttered and overworked. This makes sense to me. No fresh feed from the jet streak. Early storms don’t spell overworking necessarily (look how many rounds of tornadoes Alabama got in their famous outbreak). The underlying problem was the placement of the energy players, and that was shown days ago. Why didn’t forecasters rely more on synoptic insights for this one?
ryanardo
Member
He is 100% correct, just seems it happens more and more, as i follow modeling and all he was preciously correct, but it was too late to change it due to cancellations, especially at KCAE which is where i live, wish more would come out and say what he said instead of hiding behind the bushes, weather is very unpredictable and we act like we know what is going to happen, when in reality we are just as accurate as we were in the 60's, when you look out the window and make your own prediction which is what i did this morning after modeling changed overnight. Love following yall more to come but might just wake up and look out the window next time.
Tsappfrog20
Member
FYI RDU just had a gusts to 55mph
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Shaggy
Member
May not have been severe but ILM reported a 54mph gusts and I dumped 2.65 out of my guage
BrickTamland
Member
I just don't get why they couldn't have seen the rain and clouds from this morning hanging around and it never clearing up to provide the spark needed for the storms. Forecasting when it's going to rain and when it should clear up seems like a basic aspect of meteorology to me.
BrickTamland
Member
SPC seems to be busting a lot both ways when it comes to forecasting the severe threats here the past few years. I am talking specifically for the Triangle. We have had watches and level 3 threats with nothing happened and severe storms and tornadoes when we weren't under any kind of watch. I wonder if the local mets just don't want to go against the SPC in their forecasts. As others have said, there were flags this was going to be a bust but I don't think any of the local mets mentioned it.
BrickTamland
Member
Kat Campbell at WRAL seems to be owning that they messed up. She just posted this on Facebook.
We should have been more overt about this possibility. When the level 4 risk first came out, morning rain wasn’t the most likely scenario but that scenario started to become more likely starting yesterday night.
We should have been more overt about this possibility. When the level 4 risk first came out, morning rain wasn’t the most likely scenario but that scenario started to become more likely starting yesterday night.
JHS
Member
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...AND
WASHINGTON D.C...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe storms are anticipated on Monday across the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States. Tornadoes, some strong, and
particularly damaging winds are most likely from parts of South
Carolina to Maryland during the afternoon.
...Synopsis...
An expansive upper trough from WI to the Ark-La-Tex will further
amplify as the basal portion pivots rapidly northeastward towards
the Appalachians. A deep surface cyclone over Lower MI will progress
into QC, with an occluded front arcing southward to a minor low over
western to central NY by Monday afternoon. A sharp cold front will
extend south of this low across the Southeast into the northeast
Gulf, sweeping east across the entire Atlantic Seaboard by 12Z
Tuesday.
...East...
No change has been made to the ongoing level 4-MDT risk, with some
expansion of the 3-ENH in GA, as well as expansions of 1-2/MRGL-SLGT
across NY and FL. The highly meridional deep-layer flow regime
suggests that surface-based instability appears more likely to
develop into NY on Monday afternoon. This type of flow regime, along
with substantial early-day convection south, both render some
uncertainty on intensity amplitudes for wind/tornado across much of
the ENH-MDT risk areas.
A broken band of pre-frontal convection should be ongoing at 12Z
Monday from the lee of the southern Appalachians to the FL
Panhandle. The downstream environment will already be favorable for
supercells including strong tornado potential. With mid to upper 60s
surface dew points and initially modestly steep mid-level lapse
rates, a plume of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg
should diurnally expand from north FL through at least SC. Any
semi-discrete supercells in this environment will have the potential
to produce a strong tornado and large hail through early afternoon
before large-scale outflow likely shifts offshore of the GA/north FL
coast.
Destabilization farther north from NC to the DE Valley appears more
uncertain, with potential for near-coastal convection within the
low-level warm conveyor limiting more expansive/robust
boundary-layer heating. A plume of weak MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg
should still develop across the Piedmont into parts of the coastal
plain. Although flow fields will be highly meridional, they will be
quite strong with an intense 700-mb jet strengthening across the
Southeast behind the surface cold front. This will yield enlarged
low-level hodograph curvature across much of the pre-frontal
warm-moist sector.
Even weak boundary-layer heating will be sufficient for
intensification of an extensive QLCS from western to central
portions of NY/PA southward through VA/NC towards midday/early
afternoon. Embedded supercell structures should be most pronounced
south, where breaks in the QLCS are more probable. Some of these
could be long-track with sporadic strong tornadoes, in addition to
the background widespread damaging winds anticipated with the QLCS.
This activity will eventually interact with cool trajectories near
the coastal Atlantic and should result in waning of severe potential
in the Northeast near sunset.
..Grams.. 03/15/2026
This is where they made their 1st hedge about today's threat, citing early convection. Most people would not have seen this and since no real changes were made on the outlooks, people assumed nothing had changed with modeling. It was after 12z yesterday when models started speeding the line up and showing more early rain and convection.
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...AND
WASHINGTON D.C...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe storms are anticipated on Monday across the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States. Tornadoes, some strong, and
particularly damaging winds are most likely from parts of South
Carolina to Maryland during the afternoon.
...Synopsis...
An expansive upper trough from WI to the Ark-La-Tex will further
amplify as the basal portion pivots rapidly northeastward towards
the Appalachians. A deep surface cyclone over Lower MI will progress
into QC, with an occluded front arcing southward to a minor low over
western to central NY by Monday afternoon. A sharp cold front will
extend south of this low across the Southeast into the northeast
Gulf, sweeping east across the entire Atlantic Seaboard by 12Z
Tuesday.
...East...
No change has been made to the ongoing level 4-MDT risk, with some
expansion of the 3-ENH in GA, as well as expansions of 1-2/MRGL-SLGT
across NY and FL. The highly meridional deep-layer flow regime
suggests that surface-based instability appears more likely to
develop into NY on Monday afternoon. This type of flow regime, along
with substantial early-day convection south, both render some
uncertainty on intensity amplitudes for wind/tornado across much of
the ENH-MDT risk areas.
A broken band of pre-frontal convection should be ongoing at 12Z
Monday from the lee of the southern Appalachians to the FL
Panhandle. The downstream environment will already be favorable for
supercells including strong tornado potential. With mid to upper 60s
surface dew points and initially modestly steep mid-level lapse
rates, a plume of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg
should diurnally expand from north FL through at least SC. Any
semi-discrete supercells in this environment will have the potential
to produce a strong tornado and large hail through early afternoon
before large-scale outflow likely shifts offshore of the GA/north FL
coast.
Destabilization farther north from NC to the DE Valley appears more
uncertain, with potential for near-coastal convection within the
low-level warm conveyor limiting more expansive/robust
boundary-layer heating. A plume of weak MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg
should still develop across the Piedmont into parts of the coastal
plain. Although flow fields will be highly meridional, they will be
quite strong with an intense 700-mb jet strengthening across the
Southeast behind the surface cold front. This will yield enlarged
low-level hodograph curvature across much of the pre-frontal
warm-moist sector.
Even weak boundary-layer heating will be sufficient for
intensification of an extensive QLCS from western to central
portions of NY/PA southward through VA/NC towards midday/early
afternoon. Embedded supercell structures should be most pronounced
south, where breaks in the QLCS are more probable. Some of these
could be long-track with sporadic strong tornadoes, in addition to
the background widespread damaging winds anticipated with the QLCS.
This activity will eventually interact with cool trajectories near
the coastal Atlantic and should result in waning of severe potential
in the Northeast near sunset.
..Grams.. 03/15/2026
This is where they made their 1st hedge about today's threat, citing early convection. Most people would not have seen this and since no real changes were made on the outlooks, people assumed nothing had changed with modeling. It was after 12z yesterday when models started speeding the line up and showing more early rain and convection.
JP152
Member
Just had a gust to 66 at IAD and temp dropped from 64 to 43.
blueheronNC
Member
We shouldn’t have had to wait for the models to pivot around to morning rains to study synoptics and recognize it was a likelihood that models weren’t picking up on.
And beyond that, models like WeatherNext2 showed two general waves of precip starting from 168 hours out from the event that would have been a wave of morning rains that worked the atmosphere over. We shouldn’t wait for CAMs to play catch up to use fundamental science to figure it out on our own.
One tree fell down in Burke Co. It happened this evening under sunny skies when the wind was 10 mph. Of course it fell on the power lines leading into our neighborhood. And there have been no trucks in sight for hours. Well done Duke.
And now, it's snowing.
And now, it's snowing.
SSW flow aloft does SSW flow aloft things.
BrickTamland
Member
I wonder if a lot of it has to do with the local mets mot wanting to go against what the SPC is advertising. I don't know why but they just don’t have the best track record with the severe forecasts around NC lately.
I do believe there is pressure on on-air mets to not deviate too much from what NWS shows in these situations. If they bust along with everyone else, that's a lot better situation for the station than if they bust when not being a part of the consensus. Of course, being right when going against the grain is good, but it doesn't outweigh the risks.
NorthHillsWx
Member
I think this has a lot to do with severe more than any other forecasts where local Mets frequently go out on a limb based on their local knowledge. The implications of severe are much higher when talking about threats to life and property so calling for a dud today, even if your personal knowledge led you to that conclusion, would be incredibly risky if the SPC forecast verified. That being said, everyone blew it today. Look on twitter (x) and it’s a sh*t show of apologizing/you should be happy tornadoes didn’t happen/finger pointing/hindsighting. No easy answers for this one but hopefully there is some accountability especially from SPC folks who seemingly doubled down even this morning when it was completely clear the event was a bust