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Severe Severe Threat March 15-16 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
most events with 'high end' potential around here have crapvection and showers. it's a product of the forcing and warm air advection. but if we're doing "how did 4/16/2021 compare", a high risk had been issued by this point and it was apparent that the qlcs was going to split into discrete supercells as it entered a favorable airmass. the morehead sounding from 00z that day is the stuff of legends. no sign of anything comparable.
this line segments will have kinks and nudges and some mild tors will probably verify but right now i don't see anything that supports verification nor the hype of the mod. the fact that dull stratoform precip behind a modest low topped bowing complex is falling over the moderate risk area in south carolina is telling. lot of ballgame left but so far i'm not very worried about people or property
not a single warning (currently) of any type in SC; what a dud, just rain for the most part, minimal wind with the line even
BrickTamland
Member
I wonder why it seems hard for the mets to see the showers and clouds that will happen in the morning that will limit the energy needed for severe storms. Are the models showing things will clear in time for the fuel needed to spark the severe storms? It seems this happens more often than not when we have a level 3 or higher threat. It's not over yet, but that scenario seems to happen often.
It was good news for most of N GA. Although there were severe storm warnings for the line issued at 5:16AM for the ATL area, they overall got off lightly fortunately, especially considering many would have still been asleep. I saw only two reports from the immediate area, both being trees down from straight line TS winds:
1) 0540 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 SSE ROSWELL 33.99N 84.35W
03/16/2026 FULTON GA PUBLIC
EM REPORTS TREE ON STRUCTURE AT SUMMIT
SPRINGS RD IN SANDY SPRINGS.
2) 0615 AM TSTM WND DMG SNAPFINGER 33.68N 84.21W
03/16/2026 DEKALB GA BROADCAST MEDIA
BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTS A TREE DOWN ON A
HOME ALONG TARRAGON DRIVE. NO INJURIES.
Makeitsnow
Member
Heard thunder only 2 or 3 times with minimal wind. Incredible this line had a severe storm warning with it. Meanwhile we get MUCH worse, verifiable, and obvious severe storms on Radar and dont get warnings. Ffc is so inconsistent with warnings out his way. I've never seen that that with gsp.
you have to respect the environment. if you see a skunk in the woods you grant it respect. and at the very least even weak storms are mixing down high winds. you'll see a lot of warnings for bradford pear damage.
elite tor environments are more fickle than snowstorms imo. a lot of parameters need to hit the goldilocks zone.
"squall hung on from action last night and is going to ruin instability" is a known threat killer. won't be the first time it kills a setup, won't be the last
GeorgiaGirl
Member
to one of my local mets. They explained why the event wasn't bad (the early thunderstorms). I will say though this remaining heavy rain is about to botch the routine I've settled into. Can't say I'm going to walk during my lunch.
Models were very light on any contamination until the 12z Saturday and most didnt really turn the warm sector into a mess until the 12z runs yesterday.
BrickTamland
Member
I agree. Just wonder why the scenario of showers in the morning limiting instability can't be predicted beforehand more often so the general public doesn't think the mets are crying wolf again.
BrickTamland
Member
BrickTamland
Member
@Lordhelmit why don't you actually post something instead of just giving clown emojis.
Hindsight is 20/20. You make it sound like it was an easy call. Be glad the danger level isn’t as high as you feared. I sure am.
NorthHillsWx
Member
Yea this one is not going to verify. I agree with the notion on preparing for the worst but there were a lot of signs this would fail even the past couple days including many models showing exactly what transpired. Was very surprised with the upgrade to moderate yesterday given lack of CAPE and possibility of the QLCS moving in earlier than modeled and holding together. Very few damage reports with the line to this point
BrickTamland
Member
I agree better to be safe than sorry. Just saying this seems to happen more often than not and would be better if it could be better to predict the showers and clouds hanging around during the morning and limiting instability. I think it creates a scenario where the general public thinks the mets were crying wolf and won't pay attention down the road.
snowc
Member
So much for a moderate risk.
Also, don’t these lines seem to always move through faster than forecast? I can’t really remember a time when one moved in slower, or even on schedule really.
The vast majority will still pay attention imho. For those that don’t, that’s their problem.
I agree with you, but to his a point (to a degree), the more times "hyped" threats don't materialize, the more likely the general public will scoff at them and not be prepared. Personally I believe that's the general public's fault and the mets have a responsibility to err on side of caution, but it is an unfortunate and unintended effect.
We pretty much agree except I think the vast majority will still take them seriously. See the next reply to Brick I made just before yours.
to put it bluntly, too much emphasis is always put on the extreme modeling vs the common sense modeling.
1 - the instability was not good, from a peak heating standpoint.
2 - even to our west, it was obvious it was under-performing over night.
3 - we had forecast foretelling of this exact scenario and ignored it.
its just like the snow events. the extremes get noticed, the not so much get tossed.
all i see from the general public is that their lives were complicated today by a bad forecast. that is what they remember; they do not care about the meteorology or the reasoning why. they only care that their day was impacted negatively by a false forecast.
1 - the instability was not good, from a peak heating standpoint.
2 - even to our west, it was obvious it was under-performing over night.
3 - we had forecast foretelling of this exact scenario and ignored it.
its just like the snow events. the extremes get noticed, the not so much get tossed.
all i see from the general public is that their lives were complicated today by a bad forecast. that is what they remember; they do not care about the meteorology or the reasoning why. they only care that their day was impacted negatively by a false forecast.
BrickTamland
Member
And the mets are obligated to tell what the SPC is saying with the threat levels. I think it's more the SPC overhyping things for us in NC more often than not that is the bigger problem. They have not had a good track record with severe weather forecasts for NC in the past few years.
the best part about this all, is the snow banding, largely ignored on the modeling for the south, is actually the impactful weather event in this scenario. gotta love waking up expecting downed trees, but having heavy snowfall instead.
NOW THATS FUNNY
NOW THATS FUNNY
The existence of SPC outlooks is starting to bother me from a comms perspective. Without them would you ever have had to say anything more than something like:
“thunderstorms possible most of the day, some could be strong/severe, with tornadoes possible”
Instead we are haggling over what color they put on the website that only wx people look at. There are positives to it and I don’t want to offer too much input since I am 9 years old but just my 2c
“thunderstorms possible most of the day, some could be strong/severe, with tornadoes possible”
Instead we are haggling over what color they put on the website that only wx people look at. There are positives to it and I don’t want to offer too much input since I am 9 years old but just my 2c
BrickTamland
Member
But still the SPC went with a level 4 threat. Maybe that is what things looked like yesterday and it changed overnight. Not sure. They just haven't been that accurate with threats for NC for a few years now.
the thing is; the media organizations go and make their own versions of these spc graphics and show it off to their audience as their forecasts; per say. we know they are just reskinning the SPC graphics, but the average public thinks it's some custom forecast for the most part. when these media companies say "the spc has this outlooked blah blah" they have no idea what that even means. they only care about the graphics being shown.
i know very few people irl that know what the spc is, what weather or noaa dot gov is, even. they just open their apps and see their local media posting clickbait on their social media walls.
that's interesting; i was watching fox weather yesterday and the girl host kept saying that PA is going to be a surprise. she kept hammering it home that it was being largely ignored, but what she saw, looked like they were gonna get it. she was adamant about it
NorthHillsWx
Member
I think my only problem with the forecast/hyping were the very obvious fail modes here. IMO level 4 upgrade yesterday was not justified, keeping it a level 3 then possibly upgrading to level 4 at 6z today if it was apparent the QLCS was not going to be hours ahead of schedule (like it is) would’ve been a better course. Fail modes that we saw leading up to this:
1) QLCS holding together and arriving sooner
2) Crud developing ahead and limiting CAPE
3) Temps in 60s for event with rain arriving pre dawn
4) timing- it is HARD to have a late morning/midday high end severe event
5) models really trended to the messy look we see across the board (minus the NAM) yesterday
1) QLCS holding together and arriving sooner
2) Crud developing ahead and limiting CAPE
3) Temps in 60s for event with rain arriving pre dawn
4) timing- it is HARD to have a late morning/midday high end severe event
5) models really trended to the messy look we see across the board (minus the NAM) yesterday
a model was outputting 200+ ms/2 0-1km here. It ended up at 43.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
I’m sorry …. That was an absolute joke. Laughable event and overhyped. I understand safety ect but closing schools and all for what occurred is kind of funny
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People just need to learn to be glad that we missed on this setup and stop focusing on stupid ---- like the schools being closed etc.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
I was more disappointed I literally saw nothing but brief heavy rain and a gust or two. Schools w/e but yea I was hoping for some action
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i agree 100% with you. i woke up this morning, looked at < 700 CAPE and convective inhibition and was happy about it.
the schools are so easy to "close" now since covid, i expect it the contiue to be more common, and eventually even the majority of the school year with time. seems like people will end up going to school once a week just to turn in work in the future. homeschooling is how i finished school, got a diploma from a better state/school, and couldn't have been happier anyways.
It’s good that it missed but that doesn’t change the “cry wolf” effect on the general public when the red flags for this outcome have been blaring for at least a day.
BrickTamland
Member
I don't blame the school officials for making the call, though. They have to go with whatever the forecast calls for.
BrickTamland
Member
People can be glad it was a bust and still want the forecast for severe weather to be more accurate.
NorthHillsWx
Member
Agreed. Schools went off the forecast. This was a major (yes a major) bust by SPC and NWS