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Severe Severe Threat April 5th-7th

ForsythSnow said:
That is going to absolutely hurt their reputation, in addition to all the weather models. They should have retracted the moderate area and made the wedge areas slight. I am officially calling this event a bust for Cherokee County East and North in Georgia.
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Nam called it
 
The lesson today, as with many times in the past, is about what happens when the mesoscale features just don't line up.

Stupid high CAPE values all over MS and AL ahead of an approaching dry line (that served only to mix down dry air into budding storms) flanked by a cold front that never happened upon any significant helicity = severe sunshine.

Timing was screwed from the get go. Usually favorable wind fields are much more widespread in the spring, especially with near perfect placement for a Dixie alley show. Winds definitely were more unidirectional than I would've thought.

This is only thoughts regarding AL.
 
DustinWX said:
It's hard for most models to predict such a microclimate event such as CAD
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Unfortunately. If only there was a way they could program models to adapt to microclimates. The NAM could be capable of it someday since it is at such a high resolution. Who knows, maybe that's why it got this system right, relatively.
 
The only reason this is a bust north of south Georgia is because of strong CAD. At least for this state. Today just had that CAD "feel" from late morning to me.
 
ForsythSnow said:
That is going to absolutely hurt their reputation, in addition to all the weather models. They should have retracted the moderate area and made the wedge areas slight. I am officially calling this event a bust for Cherokee County East and North in Georgia.
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I was never even under a watch of any kind. You would think a moderate risk would warrant at least a severe thunderstorm watch. I dont think my area should have even been in a slight risk, much less moderate.
 
Well, I for one am not going to complain about the SPC maps. I am very happy that they had such a high risk because it made sure I was prepared. If it would have been a slight I wouldn't have paid a lot of attention. We got lots of rain and wind, ended up in the basement once for a tornado warning.

I would much rather have a bust than an unexpected outbreak. We're still not technically done yet as the front has not passed.

I would also like to thank everyone here for allowing me to be part of the conversation. I really enjoyed the day here and am extremely thankful for all of the help and info I got from you guys and girls today.

Still waiting on the front so that I can enjoy days and days of no storm risk!
 
A day like today reminds us that no model or meteorologist will ever be able to forecast what happens in your back yard. There was plenty of severe in the region, just not the whole region. And thankfully, not as severe as it could have been.
 
CAD is something that seems to surprise some folks though. I was surprised by the CAD today and usually it doesn't catch me off guard.
 
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I reverse my statement on the bust. Something looks ominous in Bartow County...
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I was never even under a watch of any kind. You would think a moderate risk would warrant at least a severe thunderstorm watch. I dont think my area should have even been in a slight risk, much less moderate.
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You're really tore up about that! You should start a social media campaign . #ididntgetawatch #mountainlife
 
So this setup as a *whole*, it has vastly underperformed *IMO*. I'm fascinated to see a post storm analysis of this set up. I'm still learning and thought for sure this set up would produce more than it did (again, I'm talking about the setup as a whole). Did things somehow get out of phase, cap in place, other mesoscale features, etc?
 
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