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September Sizzling Summer Segway

Does anyone have any input on the weather in the Boone area for tomorrow? My app says a cool rain, but I have very little trust in my app.
 
Cadi40 said:
Does anyone have any input on the weather in the Boone area for tomorrow? My app says a cool rain, but I have very little trust in my app.
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Only thing I can add is, your high is supposed to be 70, with a low of 61.. 80% chance of showers. According to NWS.
 
Rain Cold said:
I think it's not a bust if you don't get rain on your rooftop.
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I'm sure you would feel the same way if you had 80% chance of snow in your forecast.

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Rain Cold said:
Did it snow at all? I don't remember.
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I remember having a few of the mangled flakes mixed in with sleet when I woke up but I never saw pure snow.

December 2002 would like a word as well.

I think Jan 15, Feb 16 are a couple other flops

Really digging deep here I believe we had a clipper in 2010 or 11 that produced rain instead of the forecasted snow as well as Jan 05/06.
 
I know Niñas get a lot of flack for historically being warm around here but El Niño’s are pointless when you have a southern stream as active as last year’s. Impossible to get cold air entrenched down here. Nina’s, although dry, can get us the cold air we need with no active southern stream to wipe it all away. I’m ok with this.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I know Niñas get a lot of flack for historically being warm around here but El Niño’s are pointless when you have a southern stream as active as last year’s. Impossible to get cold air entrenched down here. Nina’s, although dry, can get us the cold air we need with no active southern stream to wipe it all away. I’m ok with this.
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That may the best post you have ever made! Very true and very Webber-like! ???
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Geez, warm water around the maritime continent, warm waters off the EC, a -PDO....
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Yep. I think that’s the main concern right now. That has been the fly in the ointment the last decade. Not sure what it would take to bring those cooler SST’s back west towards Australia or if that’s even possible.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I know Niñas get a lot of flack for historically being warm around here but El Niño’s are pointless when you have a southern stream as active as last year’s. Impossible to get cold air entrenched down here. Nina’s, although dry, can get us the cold air we need with no active southern stream to wipe it all away. I’m ok with this.
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Yep exactly, I’m tired of having these crappy marginal southern stream setups which just end up having BL and or WAA issues aloft because the amped nature of systems from a active southern stream, I’ll take my chances which some northern stream action diving right to our west and delivering, sort of like 2017-2018

it’s also worth noting that this winter/spring may have quite a active severe season, ninas often correlate with better chances of hail/tornadoes around the southeast due to more action from the polar jet and it’s seems like Ninas often bring better advection of steep mid level lapse rates/EML, anyways we’ve had active stuff from the past nino, given the big jet streak from that big boy STJ we had this past winter/spring
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I know Niñas get a lot of flack for historically being warm around here but El Niño’s are pointless when you have a southern stream as active as last year’s. Impossible to get cold air entrenched down here. Nina’s, although dry, can get us the cold air we need with no active southern stream to wipe it all away. I’m ok with this.
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I also don't think there has been a -NAO since our last Niña in 2011 if I'm not mistaken. Been a while!
 
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