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Presidential Election 2024

Chattownsnow said:
I can’t find this anywhere but Elon Musks twitter, or cross posted from it
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Like this is what I mean. It’s posted by Elon musk but from where did he get it? It has no source on it nor does Elon or anyone say where it’s from. I cross reference in google search and it comes from nothing but Elon’s actual twitter or cross posted from it. Am I suppose to believe he has some polling info ahead of everyone else and it’s going to be released somewhere? I mean maybe I guess? But then there’s this, that actually comes from somewhere with information, a website, a source, how it was conducted. And it’s terrible for Republicans
 

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Chattownsnow said:
Like this is what I mean. It’s posted by Elon musk but from where did he get it? It has no source on it nor does Elon or anyone say where it’s from. I cross reference in google search and it comes from nothing but Elon’s actual twitter or cross posted from it. Am I suppose to believe he has some polling info ahead of everyone else and it’s going to be released somewhere? I mean maybe I guess? But then there’s this, that actually comes from somewhere with information, a website, a source, how it was conducted. And it’s terrible for Republicans
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bc you would need 2020s early vote statistics too for the same time period.
 
Chattownsnow said:
Like this is what I mean. It’s posted by Elon musk but from where did he get it? It has no source on it nor does Elon or anyone say where it’s from. I cross reference in google search and it comes from nothing but Elon’s actual twitter or cross posted from it. Am I suppose to believe he has some polling info ahead of everyone else and it’s going to be released somewhere? I mean maybe I guess? But then there’s this, that actually comes from somewhere with information, a website, a source, how it was conducted. And it’s terrible for Republicans
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This site here shows almost a million votes less than 2020 in Pennsylvania and if my math is right shows the ~350k difference from Democrat early votes vs GOP that Musk was talking about.

And this isn’t polls but party affiliated votes by registered R’s and D’s.

www.kcra.com

Interactive Map: Track early vote turnout by state

See how many voters have already cast their ballots for the 2024 election.
www.kcra.com www.kcra.com
 
Arcc said:
This site here shows almost a million votes less than 2020 in Pennsylvania and if my math is right shows the ~350k difference from Democrat early votes vs GOP that Musk was talking about.

And this isn’t polls but party affiliated votes by registered R’s and D’s.

www.kcra.com

Interactive Map: Track early vote turnout by state

See how many voters have already cast their ballots for the 2024 election.
www.kcra.com www.kcra.com
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I gotcha thanks
 
Arcc said:
This site here shows almost a million votes less than 2020 in Pennsylvania and if my math is right shows the ~350k difference from Democrat early votes vs GOP that Musk was talking about.

And this isn’t polls but party affiliated votes by registered R’s and D’s.

www.kcra.com

Interactive Map: Track early vote turnout by state

See how many voters have already cast their ballots for the 2024 election.
www.kcra.com www.kcra.com
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Right.

He's comparing the 2020 vs. 2024 deltas between Republicans and Democrats. It's a combination of more GOP early votes *AND* fewer Dems early voting (but largely the latter) driving the deficit.

This chart (albeit only through 10/29) he posted in an earlier tweet breaks it down even more...



Now, there is certainly the possibility that:

1. Same-day GOP voters that usually turn out in huge numbers will fail to do so.

2. The GOP has cannibalized much of their same-day votes with early voting.

3. Democratic voters will turn out same-day in much larger numbers than usual.

4. Many of these GOP voters are "Never Trumpers"

5. More independents than expected will break for the Dems

But all of that said, you'd rather be in Trump's (and the GOP's) position vs. Harris' and the Democrats with the numbers thus far given traditional voting patterns. If anything, it's the Dems who are really stretching their interpretation of these dire numbers as a coping mechanism.
 
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ForsythSnow said:
The above is part of the answer, but housing costs have risen drastically as have rent costs. I shouldn't be able to buy a house destroyed by a fire for the price my parents bought a house 18 years ago that's smaller, in a worse area, and is a teardown. Liberals tend to speak about more affordable housing options and with a large amount of power, they have not moved to stop investment companies from taking over metro areas such as Atlanta making them as bad as those who fund these companies. Harris will continue the same policies Biden did and this will lead to more foreign investors and non foreign investors taking land from Americans and renting them out for high costs like they already are. At least under Trump the foreign investors will be most likely to pull out due to his stance on foreign affairs in our nation.

A part of it is local but nationally we need to declare mass real estate investment companies to be a violation of our laws by creating artificial local monopolies to drive prices up.

Instead of our funds going out of the country or attention diverted to useless things, we need to focus on home, which seems to be all talk on the left.
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What policies did Biden do to cause this? Or at least give a policy democrats have done at some point to back up what your saying with something besides what you “feel” like is happening
 
Rain Cold said:
Your arguments don't hold very much water. You keep coming back to tariffs as the centerpiece of your economic argument against Trump. I completely understand that that is a msm talking point. But you have a fantastic analog of 4 years of a Trump presidency that you are willfully ignoring.

There were tariffs and the economy didn't tank. In fact, it was really strong. Biden could have eliminated all tariffs, but he didn't.

Also, the extreme tariffs you are worried about are unlikely to even happen. Trump often threatens things that he never follows through on, which is a pretty effective negotiating strategy.

Meanwhile, you're so hung up on what you're being told by the "experts" that you have failed to observe a more obvious reality. That is, Harris, who can barely even talk about anything technical or complex without a script, has zero economic background. Her great ideas of price controls and taxing unrealized gains and losses, would not only be immediately disastrous, but they would take us down a very slippery slope and open the door to policy abuse in those areas.

We've been talking about this for 10 pages, and it's ridiculous because it's not that hard to understand. The Understanding Pathway being blocked by a strong dislike of Trump.

The bottom line is, you can listen to the media and the left wing surrogates all day and come in here and repeat it until the cows come home. But it doesn't change the fact that we had a better economy under Trump than under Biden and Harris. You can shout tariffs tariffs tariffs just like you shouted Russia Russia Russia. But it doesn't change the fact that both history and reality show that you are categorically wrong.
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Trump: We will build a missile defense shield.. We’ll put Herschel Walker in charge of that little sucker.

The Trump administration's tariffs were panned by the majority of economists and analysts, with general consensus among experts—including U.S. Director of the National Economic Council Larry Kudlow—being that the tariffs either had no direct benefits on the U.S. economy and GDP growth or they had a small to moderately negative impact on the economy.[153][200][201] In a March 2018 Reuterssurvey, almost 80% of 60 economists believed the tariffs on steel and aluminum imports would be a net harm to the U.S. economy, with the rest believing the tariffs would have little or no effect; none of the economists surveyed believed the tariffs would benefit the U.S. economy.[202] In May 2018, more than 1,000 economists wrote a letter warning Trump about the dangers of pursuing a trade war, arguing that the tariffs were echoing historical policy errors, such as the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act, which helped lead to the Great Depression.[203]

If that’s not a massive red flag to you I don’t know what parallel universe you are living in.
 
Chattownsnow said:
Trump: We will build a missile defense shield.. We’ll put Herschel Walker in charge of that little sucker.

The Trump administration's tariffs were panned by the majority of economists and analysts, with general consensus among experts—including U.S. Director of the National Economic Council Larry Kudlow—being that the tariffs either had no direct benefits on the U.S. economy and GDP growth or they had a small to moderately negative impact on the economy.[153][200][201] In a March 2018 Reuterssurvey, almost 80% of 60 economists believed the tariffs on steel and aluminum imports would be a net harm to the U.S. economy, with the rest believing the tariffs would have little or no effect; none of the economists surveyed believed the tariffs would benefit the U.S. economy.[202] In May 2018, more than 1,000 economists wrote a letter warning Trump about the dangers of pursuing a trade war, arguing that the tariffs were echoing historical policy errors, such as the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act, which helped lead to the Great Depression.[203]

If that’s not a massive red flag to you I don’t know what parallel universe you are living in.
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People are realizing they had it better under Trump.

Source: People who have grown up enough to admit the truth

If the people wanted Kamala she wouldn't have been the first to drop out back in 2020
 
I'm a little confused as to why people believe the trump years were so great. It takes time for economic policy to effect the average joe. Trump was riding Obama's Coat tails the first two years roughly. The last two were horrible due to COVID. The cheap gas was because of supply and demand. I'm not knocking trump saying he didn't do anything but he wasn't in office long enough to do anything meaningful with the economy. He had a trifecta government his first two years and wasted it on the rich. My taxes didn't go down. Then 2018 the house flipped so he couldn't do anything meaningful. And tariffs are good if you want to target specific goods related to national security but I'm good on the rest. It just places the burden on the consumer. Just my thoughts I do think Biden and Jeremy Powell have done their best to get us to a soft landing and it appears we might actually pull it off. This week between the election and Thursdays fed meeting will determine United States economic policy for the foreseeable future.
 
Chattownsnow said:
What policies did Biden do to cause this? Or at least give a policy democrats have done at some point to back up what your saying with something besides what you “feel” like is happening
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His administration in general did everything they could to shove as much money into the economy as possible between covid stimulus, oil reserve sales, and Kamala's 25k to housing only is a continuation of that. The spending and trying to keep the economy rapidly growing for too long after the covid drop has caused inflation to outpace so much. Too much money too fast is a recipe for disaster especially if it's only addressing the price and not the cause of the price.
 
SNOWMANN said:
I'm a little confused as to why people believe the trump years were so great. It takes time for economic policy to effect the average joe. Trump was riding Obama's Coat tails the first two years roughly. The last two were horrible due to COVID. The cheap gas was because of supply and demand. I'm not knocking trump saying he didn't do anything but he wasn't in office long enough to do anything meaningful with the economy. He had a trifecta government his first two years and wasted it on the rich. My taxes didn't go down. Then 2018 the house flipped so he couldn't do anything meaningful. And tariffs are good if you want to target specific goods related to national security but I'm good on the rest. It just places the burden on the consumer. Just my thoughts I do think Biden and Jeremy Powell have done their best to get us to a soft landing and it appears we might actually pull it off. This week between the election and Thursdays fed meeting will determine United States economic policy for the foreseeable future.
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So 8 years of the economy bumbling along under Obama with FED rates of near zero the entire time turned on a dime to suddenly need to be adjusted to 2.5% quickly after Trump was elected because of Obama?

In the words of the most smartest, most energetic old guy in the world, “Come on man.”
 
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The discrepancy in early vote of D vs R is easy enough to figure out.

You want to compare the numbers to 2012 and 2016 instead.

Why?

2020 was a COVID situation where Democrats who usually are too lazy to go vote (younger especially) were given mail ballots whether they asked for them or not in a lot of areas.

Democrats were also more likely to be afraid of COVID and stay away from in person voting. Voting was an activity to do while isolated and bored.

I personally think that is why the numbers with Democrats are so low compared to 2020.

I do not think Republicans will have as big an in person turnout, but with the Democrats literally not voting early, the odds are in favor of the Republicans to turn out just enough to win.
 
Something wild is happening in California and some other blue areas. Dem leaders are flipping out about down ballot problems. 👀
 
lexxnchloe said:
After this weekend i am convinced the narrative of a close election will be wrong. Either way we will know the winner tomorrow night.
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For the sake of our country, I hope your are right Lexx. I am not as convinced. We have already seen voting irregularities. Dems pushing rules to the limits. My cousin in Atlanta was told that she had already voted. Took her two days to get it straightened out so she could vote and she is a Dem who did vote for Kommiela. Point is her identity was used to cast a vote she didn’t. With all that is happening I wish I share your optimism.
 
SNOWMANN said:
I'm a little confused as to why people believe the trump years were so great.
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Because they were economically, period & point blank. Not even most reasonable Dems will argue this.

Now, one can argue that Trump wasn't responsible for this (and that's fine), but that's different from saying the economy during his presidency wasn't great.

However, what's good for the goose is also good for the gander. If we're going to be really reductionist and pedantic a out it, I couod also argue Oabana had nothing to do with the economy huming along in his 2nd term. It was almost entirely because of the Fed's ZIRP/QE policy and OPEC's oil price war driving gas prices to (at the time) historic lows...
 
NorthDFWwx said:
It was a joke, man (and not even a Politically Incorrect one like Tony's)...

Are jokes now no longer allowed in politics?
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Dems don’t like humour in politics because it keeps them from doing what they do best which is identity politics. You see one of the Dems primary goals is tribalism. They have to segment you into a specific tribe, tell you how your tribe will be better with them. Humour in politics brings a human element to the equation that hampers their ability to put people in their appropriate identity tribe.
 
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