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Wintry Potential Dec 13-14 Ice Threat

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
7 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of up to
two tenths of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west
central Virginia, north central and northwest North Carolina
and southeast West Virginia.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 7 PM EST Friday.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Here's my current thinking on this event. This is going to be a close call for the I-85 corridor, up to a quarter of inch of ice is possible near the blue ridge escarpment. Any freezing rain should transition to all rain once heavier precipitation arrives as latent heating due to freezing & sensible heat fluxes from the warm nose into the underlying CAD dome increase.
December 12-13 2019 NC Forecast Snow Map.png
 
Precip coming in around midnight around here and S piedmont of NC. That could prevent a lot of icing
 
Something the AFD mentions is the UHI in the Charlotte area preventing freezing rain, while I agree that the UHI will probably prevent a lot of areas within Charlotte from being too cold I do think that surrounding suburbs such as Huntersville, Concord, and so on could see some ZR.
 
I did not expect to wake up to 30 degrees and frosty. I think it's actually a little colder than that but thermometer broken. Was suppose to be 35.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Mid 20s here. I just checked up against the HRRR and NAM and both are verifying too humid and too warm. Not sure of the implications yet, but it should be watched what the wetbulbs are later tonight before the moisture arrives.
Click to expand...
Maybe but almost all modeling always bust with overnight lows in ideal radiational cooling environment but still something to watch. Just doing a quick check and we have a 1040 HP in a pretty good location, yet DP's are in the low to mid 20's, you would really expect to see teen DP's if this was going to be a major winter storm. With that said still looks like a decent nuisance event for the western piedmont/foothills area of NC
 
Jeremy Camp said:
View attachment 27839
Click to expand...
I moved this post from the Dec thread to over here because it's the same time frame, also as mentioned this map is seriously flawed. I mean temps never even get to freezing in sections of Ga/SC with precip falling and yet it paints 2-4"... crazy clown maps
 
Just throwing these maps out there for comparison, to each model and to verification....

GFS
1576156912249.png

3k NAM

1576157105219.png

and a sounding for that pocket of heavy zr in NE Ga, 31 with heavy rain will be lots of runoff (warm layer fairly stout too) so I'd take those totals with a grain of salt imo
1576157203211.png

RGEM (cold bias and all ;)) has come down on it's totals, this will probably adjust more accurately as the day progresses

1576157303296.png

and finally the long range HRRR

1576157399860.png

Oh and the Euro (although admittedly not in it's wheelhouse at this stage of the game)

1576157494851.png
 
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