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Wintry Potential Dec 13-14 Ice Threat

Myfrotho704_ said:
I don’t make nice maps like @Webberweather53 or @WxBlue
but I’ll try my hardest lol, but this is what I’ll go with right now, again, look at the lowest totals possible with this right now and not the higher end (t-.1)View attachment 27814
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Not far off from I’m thinking but prob smaller area of .1 to .25. I’m young but have years of experience to know how goofy RGEM is every winter lol. It’s very hard to beat the euro with a little human input and other short range guidance.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
NAM says thunder ZR/RN is a possibility, some elevated convection is possible, especially if it’s right with that MUcape, this means heavy ZR, also note nice lift (omega) from the WAA, but anyways quicker latent heat release would be likely with heavier rates, gotta remember that models count anything below freezing as Ice accumulation, you gotta account marginal temps, heavy rates, still 3km NAM shows significant pockets of ice, it’s a very close call for Charlotte, RGEM is starting to get some support View attachment 27810View attachment 27811
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Yeah I would definitely bet on North Charlotte Metro getting something I highly doubt South Metro will.. which seems to always be the case.
 
Little concerned we bottom out in the low to mid 20s then clouds move in tomorrow morning and we fail to hit expected high temps which results in wider freezing rain advisories. WPC up to 90% odds now NC escarpment
 
And dew points are currently in the mid 20s in the immediate CLT area with lower 20s out west, I think that is a bust on the low side as well.
 
Well, I’m thinking it’s just not as cold as forecasted. I’m sitting at 30/24. I was expecting mid 20s and DPs in the teens?


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BIG FROSTY said:
Well, I’m thinking it’s just not as cold as forecasted. I’m sitting at 30/24. I was expecting mid 20s and DPs in the teens?


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That is weird, I am in upper 20s right now. Also, I think most of the models had our forecast DPs in the upper 20s/around 30
 
SimeonNC said:
That is weird, I am in upper 20s right now. Also, I think most of the models had our forecast DPs in the upper 20s/around 30
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Actually I went back and looked and NWS said temps--

OVERNIGHT...Clear. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s.
Light and variable winds.

Maybe I looked at it wrong earlier, but I thought they had lows in the mid 20s? Main thing is I really was expecting lower DP's. If precip don't move in pretty quick tonight, it's definitely going to be NO biggie here.........................
 
Well we knew this would happen wwa from gsp
48 49 50
​

000
FXUS62 KGSP 120903
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
403 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A developing coastal storm will bring rain to much of the Southeast
tonight and Saturday. Across portions of western North Carolina,
with temperatures being especially cold tonight, freezing rain
will bring light accumulation of ice to some areas. Precipitation
will continue during the day Friday as as a cold rain and persist
into Saturday, before dry high pressure returns to the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 320 AM: Strong high pressure, presently centered between Lake
Ontario and Chesapeake Bay, will dominate our weather today. A dry
northeasterly flow will continue, maintaining max temps several
degrees below normal, despite mainly clear skies. The high will
form a quasi-wedge over the region that will persist into tonight.

An upper trough seemingly comprised of phased northern and southern
stream shortwaves will shift east out of the High Plains early this
morning, with a sfc low developing over the Midwest. Cyclogenesis
eventually will occur ahead of the southern wave near the eastern
Gulf Coast tonight, but warm upglide will develop over the cold
high as early as this afternoon. The associated moistening will
quickly reintroduce cloud cover to our CWFA from south to north,
followed by precip. With parts of the area very near or below
freezing, this will have notable impacts.

PoPs reach likely range over the GA, western SC and NC Escarpment
zones around midnight. The cooling of temps will be tricky, with
the increasing cloud cover but also evaporative cooling as precip
gets underway. The fact that the global models generally show less
precip but cooler temps during latter part of the night is a little
concerning. The NAM is characteristically bullish with precip rates
and the related wet-bulbing, but also is quick to warm temps in
the early morning hours as the "parent high" migrates offshore;
this is important as this is when the guidance consensus on QPF is
greatest. Looking at vertical profiles from the available models,
even the cooler guidance still features enough of a warm nose
to expect freezing rain where sfc temps are below 0C; even if
the warm nose is not as strong as progged, the layer under the
inversion will be shallow and it will be hard to imagine much
refreezing. Altogether, most parts of our WNC zones between the
Blue Ridge Escarpment and I-85, excluding the Charlotte metro
heat island, will be at or below freezing for at least some of
tonight`s precip. Accumulation looks unlikely to exceed a tenth
of an inch in most areas, and unlikely to exceed a quarter inch
throughout. We will hoist a Winter Weather Advisory for 02z to
17z Friday mainly for impacted road conditions in the early morning.

Though precip most likely will continue into Friday afternoon, temps
will warm enough for ice accumulation to end in the morning. It
will remain a cold and "wedgy" day with breezy northeast winds. Max
temps will be near normal in the far west, but as much as 15 below
normal in the wetter east.
 
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