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Severe Possible severe threat 12/16/19

Another classic hook
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Mesoscale Discussion 2206
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

Areas affected...west-central Louisiana...specifically southern
Vernon County

Concerning...Tornado Watch 700...

Valid 161733Z - 161800Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 700 continues.

SUMMARY...Based on recent radar and environmental data, a strong to
potentially intense tornado with potential peak winds of 110 to 155
mph (EF1-EF3) is likely ongoing.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar signatures from KPOE and KLCH as of 17:31z
reveal an intense supercell characterized by a 0.5-0.9 degree
rotational velocity between 61 and 70 kt. A tornadic debris
signature has also been noted on recent radar scans. These
signatures are occurring in an environment characterized by STP
between 4 and 5. Previous signatures within similar environments
produced tornado-damage-estimated wind speeds from 110 to 155 mph
and confidence is high for likely strong to potentially intense
tornado. A tornado is ongoing and may continue based on the
rotational velocity continuity and the storm moving within a
favorable downstream environment.
 
Might have something coming towards Jackson Mississippi
Edit - it’s confirmed 96F0C17F-1305-4113-AFD5-FB104CCC407B.pngAB9A2825-563A-4BCA-8BF0-8CACFBE37C31.png96F0C17F-1305-4113-AFD5-FB104CCC407B.pngAB9A2825-563A-4BCA-8BF0-8CACFBE37C31.png
 
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Mesoscale Discussion 2205
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

Areas affected...Central LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 700...

Valid 161724Z - 161900Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 700 continues.

SUMMARY...A corridor favorable for strong tornadoes is developing
across central LA.

DISCUSSION...Recent VAD data from KPOE and KLCH continues to show
long hodographs (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 50 kt) and vertically
veering low-level wind profiles. Surface winds across southern LA
have increased slightly but still remain generally 10 to 15 kt from
the south. Recent mesoanalysis places a small area of 45 kt 850-mb
winds over central LA, matching expectations based on previous model
guidance. Instability continues to increase as well, with
mesoanalysis suggesting 2000 J/kg MLCAPE now stretching into
southwest LA and 1500 J/kg MLCAPE covering much of the central and
southern portions of the state.

Low-level winds are expected to strengthen further over the next
hour or two, resulting in a favorable overlap between the increased
low-level vertical shear and building instability. As a result, a
corridor of increased tornado risk appears to be developing across
central LA. Additionally, storms have already developed upstream of
this area. Given these conditions, storms capable of strong
tornadoes are possible.

..Mosier.. 12/16/2019
 
mcd2205.gif


Mesoscale Discussion 2205
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

Areas affected...Central LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 700...

Valid 161724Z - 161900Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 700 continues.

SUMMARY...A corridor favorable for strong tornadoes is developing
across central LA.

DISCUSSION...Recent VAD data from KPOE and KLCH continues to show
long hodographs (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 50 kt) and vertically
veering low-level wind profiles. Surface winds across southern LA
have increased slightly but still remain generally 10 to 15 kt from
the south. Recent mesoanalysis places a small area of 45 kt 850-mb
winds over central LA, matching expectations based on previous model
guidance. Instability continues to increase as well, with
mesoanalysis suggesting 2000 J/kg MLCAPE now stretching into
southwest LA and 1500 J/kg MLCAPE covering much of the central and
southern portions of the state.

Low-level winds are expected to strengthen further over the next
hour or two, resulting in a favorable overlap between the increased
low-level vertical shear and building instability. As a result, a
corridor of increased tornado risk appears to be developing across
central LA. Additionally, storms have already developed upstream of
this area. Given these conditions, storms capable of strong
tornadoes are possible.

..Mosier.. 12/16/2019
I said it yesterday, kinda unusual airmass in this setup, not good
 
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