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Severe Possible severe threat 12/16/19

Brick Tamland

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Mesoscale Discussion 2205
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

Areas affected...Central LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 700...

Valid 161724Z - 161900Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 700 continues.

SUMMARY...A corridor favorable for strong tornadoes is developing
across central LA.

DISCUSSION...Recent VAD data from KPOE and KLCH continues to show
long hodographs (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 50 kt) and vertically
veering low-level wind profiles. Surface winds across southern LA
have increased slightly but still remain generally 10 to 15 kt from
the south. Recent mesoanalysis places a small area of 45 kt 850-mb
winds over central LA, matching expectations based on previous model
guidance. Instability continues to increase as well, with
mesoanalysis suggesting 2000 J/kg MLCAPE now stretching into
southwest LA and 1500 J/kg MLCAPE covering much of the central and
southern portions of the state.

Low-level winds are expected to strengthen further over the next
hour or two, resulting in a favorable overlap between the increased
low-level vertical shear and building instability. As a result, a
corridor of increased tornado risk appears to be developing across
central LA. Additionally, storms have already developed upstream of
this area. Given these conditions, storms capable of strong
tornadoes are possible.

..Mosier.. 12/16/2019
 

Myfrotho704_

#LLK πŸ•ŠπŸ˜’πŸ’™
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Mesoscale Discussion 2205
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

Areas affected...Central LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 700...

Valid 161724Z - 161900Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 700 continues.

SUMMARY...A corridor favorable for strong tornadoes is developing
across central LA.

DISCUSSION...Recent VAD data from KPOE and KLCH continues to show
long hodographs (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 50 kt) and vertically
veering low-level wind profiles. Surface winds across southern LA
have increased slightly but still remain generally 10 to 15 kt from
the south. Recent mesoanalysis places a small area of 45 kt 850-mb
winds over central LA, matching expectations based on previous model
guidance. Instability continues to increase as well, with
mesoanalysis suggesting 2000 J/kg MLCAPE now stretching into
southwest LA and 1500 J/kg MLCAPE covering much of the central and
southern portions of the state.

Low-level winds are expected to strengthen further over the next
hour or two, resulting in a favorable overlap between the increased
low-level vertical shear and building instability. As a result, a
corridor of increased tornado risk appears to be developing across
central LA. Additionally, storms have already developed upstream of
this area. Given these conditions, storms capable of strong
tornadoes are possible.

..Mosier.. 12/16/2019
I said it yesterday, kinda unusual airmass in this setup, not good
 

GeorgiaGirl

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Tornado Emergency now for Pineville LA from the same tornado.

Edit: Also yikes if that spotter map is true. That would have one of the chasers right on the circulation?
 

Stump

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I’m watching the KALB livestream, is it normal for TV stations nowadays to have that low of a definition radar?
 

malak05

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If RAP is to be believed the SigTor Parameters even into GA is in the 1.3 to 1.5 range tonight that will be still quite a ample environment for strong storms and spin-up tornadoes
 

accu35

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This is looking scary for my area in southwest Alabama
 

NWTENN

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I’m watching the KALB livestream, is it normal for TV stations nowadays to have that low of a definition radar?
Awful. It's the same imaging I have on my free "MyRadar" app.
 

NWTENN

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Mercy...

(I believe this is the tornado from those storms)

Edit: People saying that this tornado took 3 houses.
That video is worth watching all the way through. No way of knowing from the video, but looks like some pretty violent motion there. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see some pretty serious damage from that storm should it hit a populated area.
 

Rick

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Toney
Dewpoint is stuck at 59 I dont see much later happening here in north Alabama
 

crecre9

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Huntsville, AL
70/62 here in Huntsville. A tornado watch was recently issued for northern MS and I expect one will be issued later for N AL. That said, the HRRR has been trending weaker with tornado parameters over the past several hours. Also, pivotal has the new HRRRv4, but no point sounding data yet.
 
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