• Hello, we have changed the default theme for SouthernWX. If you prefer the old look, you can change it back to the "Default" at the bottom of the page in the theme selector. If you have any issues or problems with the new theme, let @Shawn know with a message!
  • Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Severe Possible severe threat 12/16/19

PEA_RIDGE

FIREFIGHTER
Member
Joined
Jan 20, 2017
Messages
1,026
Reaction score
789
Location
MONTEVALLO, AL
Starting Monday Dec 16 the SPC already mentioning severe weather with a 15% area for parts of the SE


Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
 

Rick

Member
Joined
Jan 15, 2018
Messages
233
Reaction score
98
Location
Toney
Still has potential but, right now it looks like a Bama slight severe threat. Some instability but the low is kinda far away.
Thank you I have a drs appt Monday do you know the Cape for north Alabama right now
 

Tagat

Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
393
Reaction score
487
Location
Sylacauga
1576249527207.png

I grabbed this from James Spann weather extreme video. A Slight Threat for MS/AL. James is saying possible a line of storms and maybe some straight line winds. Temps could be near 70. If dewpoints hit the 60's could have some strong thunderstorms. Then temps go in the wrong direction overnight and be cold again on Tuesday back in the 40's for North Bama.
 
Last edited:

BirdManDoomW

Leader of the bird cult
Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2018
Messages
1,972
Reaction score
1,188
Location
Northwest NC
SPC threat has been expanded to Texas to Tennessee for the days we are tracking. But there’s a slight risk out tonight for Florida for those wanting to track now.
 

Zander98al

Member
Joined
Mar 6, 2019
Messages
829
Reaction score
701
Location
Birmingham
Decent cape for a december day 😶 im going to be driving near tuscaloosa and hoover when this goes down may get some pictures if any good looking storms.
 

Rick

Member
Joined
Jan 15, 2018
Messages
233
Reaction score
98
Location
Toney
Nws saying maybe a brief tornado or damaging winds I dont think it looks real bad
 

Rick

Member
Joined
Jan 15, 2018
Messages
233
Reaction score
98
Location
Toney
When will we know more like latest models? Is it trending stronger ?
 

PEA_RIDGE

FIREFIGHTER
Member
Joined
Jan 20, 2017
Messages
1,026
Reaction score
789
Location
MONTEVALLO, AL
When will we know more like latest models? Is it trending stronger ?
WILL HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE POSS SEVERITY TOMORROW EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE A GOOD GRASP ON THINGS AND WHEN DIFFERENT NWS OFFICES LAUNCH BALLOON SOUNDINGS
 

Rick

Member
Joined
Jan 15, 2018
Messages
233
Reaction score
98
Location
Toney
The 3k nam will be out soon so maps will probably start trickling in

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Thank you can you post maps when out I live in a trailer and have a drs appt Monday afternoon so I'm watching closely
 

SD

Staff member
Administrator
Joined
Jan 4, 2017
Messages
8,103
Reaction score
12,413
Location
Chalybeate Springs, NC
Thank you can you post maps when out I live in a trailer and have a drs appt Monday afternoon so I'm watching closely
Here are some maps. My guess would be a better threat initially to your west and northwest early on Monday with the better threat transitioning to you south and southeast during the overnight.

I added the max updraft helicity for the run. Nothing jumps off the page to me right now but that obviously can change



Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 

Rick

Member
Joined
Jan 15, 2018
Messages
233
Reaction score
98
Location
Toney
Enhanced risk southern Mississippi lousiania and tiny part of west Alabama....
 

PEA_RIDGE

FIREFIGHTER
Member
Joined
Jan 20, 2017
Messages
1,026
Reaction score
789
Location
MONTEVALLO, AL
day2probotlk_0700_any.gif
SPC AC 150659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF LA...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MS AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL AL...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected Monday into Monday night from
the Sabine River Valley through Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and
the western Florida Panhandle. Damaging wind gusts, tornadoes and
isolated hail are all possible.

...Sabine Valley to the Gulf Coast States...

Forecast guidance continues to trend slightly southward with the
evolution of the mid/upper trough ejecting across the Plains on
Monday, as well as in the evolution of the surface low over the
lower MS Valley region. Latest guidance is in good agreement that a
weak low will develop over northern LA with an inverted trough
extending northeast across MS into TN/KY. The low will track
northeast along the trough/frontal wave the TN Valley vicinity
around 00z and the central Appalachians by 12z Tuesday. A trailing
cold front will push eastward across the lower MS Valley, located
from eastern TN to near Mobile AL and the western Gulf of Mexico by
the end of the period.

A strong southwesterly jet continues to be forecast, and 700 mb
winds around 40-55 kt will be in place across much of the South
Monday morning. An 850 mb low level jet around 35-50 kt also is
forecast to persist across the Gulf Coast states for much of the
period. Strong southerly low level flow will transport mid 60s F
dewpoints as far north as central MS/AL with 70s F dewpoints closer
to the coast. While cloud cover will limit stronger heating, this
rich boundary-layer moisture beneath 6.5-7.0 C/km lapse rates will
result in MLCAPE values from near 500-1500 J/kg. Furthermore,
impressive vertical shear will support rotating updrafts/supercells
.


Some uncertainty in storm mode remains, as deep-layer flow above
around 1-2 km is generally parallel to the surface front, which
would generally support more linear and/or cluster storm modes.
However, some guidance shows considerable backing of low level winds
ahead of the front, resulting in rather large low level hodographs
and increased frontal convergence. If this scenario pans out, mixed
modes including bowing line segments/clusters and semi-discrete
supercells will be possible. Regardless of storm mode, damaging
winds appear likely given relatively fast storm motion and strong
flow in the presence of an adequate thermodynamic environment.
Tornadoes will also be possible, via mesovortex processes in line
segments, as well as with any discrete supercells that develop.
Finally, midlevel lapse rates are stronger than typical across the
region, which will aid in hail production with more isolated storm
modes.


Various guidance has indicated a secondary and/or later threat may
emerge over portions of southern AL toward the western FL Panhandle.
A lead impulse as been evident in the last several forecast cycles
and this could support convection well ahead of the cold front, or
aid in further development/persistence of severe storms from Monday
evening into the overnight hours. Uncertainty is higher in this
scenario compared to the rest of the outlook area, but the Slight
and Marginal risks have been shifted eastward to account for this
possibility.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 5% - Slight
Wind: 30% - Enhanced
Hail: 15% - Slight


..Leitman.. 12/15/2019
 

Rick

Member
Joined
Jan 15, 2018
Messages
233
Reaction score
98
Location
Toney
Now there's no instability good news but they been saying instability would be in the forecast ..... looks like a low threat
 

Myfrotho704_

#LLK 🕊😢💙
Member
Joined
Oct 15, 2018
Messages
5,609
Reaction score
7,190
Location
Concord NC
One thing I’m noticing with soundings tommorow is that low level lapse rates aren’t the best and there’s basically no temp/dp seperation, so there may be cloud cover, which may limit low level lapse rates, but the moist BL may allow decent 3CAPE, hodographs are definitely impressive along with SRH, and 1km shear at nearly 40kts can easily can spin something, also mid level lapses are pretty good, which is not that typical, if you see some separation between the temp/DP tommorow with sunshine, there may be a more nastier setup 7F79B20D-18C5-4104-B596-9AD3E3047F4F.png BDB04631-3B0F-4CC7-9C71-09E341A803D7.png
 

Myfrotho704_

#LLK 🕊😢💙
Member
Joined
Oct 15, 2018
Messages
5,609
Reaction score
7,190
Location
Concord NC
What concerns me is that you don’t don’t often see near loaded gun soundings in LA often, with such steep lapse rates, storms that fire won’t be your typical high shear low cape moist adiabatic crapfest, but instead a more springish airmass
 
Top