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Severe POSS SEVERE WEATHER STARTING 05-17-2019 and BEYOND

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN KIOWA AND NORTHEASTERN GREER COUNTIES...

At 524 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located near Mangum, moving northeast at 35 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hobart, Mangum, Granite, Lone Wolf, Brinkman and Altus-Lugert Lake.
 
Whose bright idea was it to send a recon plane into that tornadic circulation at 6k elevation
 
Here's better video:



I first saw it on Schmitt's stream on livestormchasing, but I didn't know what to make of it and the stream had a hard time coming through, so I said it was a wedge tornado that was down.
 
Orion P3 flying into that circulation could be a disaster.
 
I usually sit on the sidelines during these outbreaks and let you guys run the show. But I just wanted to say that I really expected more to be going on, given all of the lead up, extreme parameters, etc. Has the real show not started yet? So far, it looks like we only have a couple of EF2s or so and a whole lot of mess on radar.
 
The HIGH RISK is not going to verify. The parameters the SPC put up today were used for events in the past that have been historic. The 95+/95+ had literally only been used ONCE in history. This is going to go down as one of the biggest bust of all time for the SPC. I realize there was tornadoes today and a lot of storms, but based on what the SPC put out today should have been MUCH LARGER. This is a good thing, but it still needs to be pointed out.
 
Rain Cold said:
I usually sit on the sidelines during these outbreaks and let you guys run the show. But I just wanted to say that I really expected more to be going on, given all of the lead up, extreme parameters, etc. Has the real show not started yet? So far, it looks like we only have a couple of EF2s or so and a whole lot of mess on radar.
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Its not living up to the hype.....so far at least.....most storms are struggling to produce tor's and the ones that do drop are short lived.....still there is a solid 2-5 hr window left for craziness to happen....
 
Rain Cold said:
I usually sit on the sidelines during these outbreaks and let you guys run the show. But I just wanted to say that I really expected more to be going on, given all of the lead up, extreme parameters, etc. Has the real show not started yet? So far, it looks like we only have a couple of EF2s or so and a whole lot of mess on radar.
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Still seems like a dangerous situation, but I guess there have not been as many tornadoes or big tornadoes as expected based on what the SPC said. Maybe you can call that a bust, but it has still produced several tornadoes. Of course, here it would be a bust the other way since we only get severe storms and tornadoes when we're not under a watch.
 
Rain Cold said:
I usually sit on the sidelines during these outbreaks and let you guys run the show. But I just wanted to say that I really expected more to be going on, given all of the lead up, extreme parameters, etc. Has the real show not started yet? So far, it looks like we only have a couple of EF2s or so and a whole lot of mess on radar.
Click to expand...
That’s the way the cookie crumbles 9/10 on hyped weather events. Rain, snow, heat, tornado. It never meets expectations. And 9/10 that’s a good thing. Unless it’s snow then it’s a bad thing especially if I don’t get my forecasted 6-8”
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
That’s the way the cookie crumbles 9/10 on hyped weather events. Rain, snow, heat, tornado. It never meets expectations. And 9/10 that’s a good thing. Unless it’s snow then it’s a bad thing especially if I don’t get my forecasted 6-8”
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Yeah, the forecast is only going to be as good as the data behind it. I think the parameters that used to give us certain weather when it comes to big storms, either severe or winter storms, just are not the same anymore, and the computer models are just going to be wrong more often than not when it comes to anything other than mundane weather.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
The HIGH RISK is not going to verify. The parameters the SPC put up today were used for events in the past that have been historic. The 95+/95+ had literally only been used ONCE in history. This is going to go down as one of the biggest bust of all time for the SPC. I realize there was tornadoes today and a lot of storms, but based on what the SPC put out today should have been MUCH LARGER. This is a good thing, but it still needs to be pointed out.
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I Pray you are correct. It's still only 7:00 CDT there. If my memory serves me correctly ..... Joplin, MO happened during overnight hours.?.?
 
For people already saying that this is a bust, current STP values (not forecasts) are >12 across south-central OK. MLCAPE is in the 3000-4000 J/kg range, shear is high, etc. I think the SPC was completely warranted in the language and forecast they went with, given that every motivating environmental condition they mentioned in their discussion has been realized (and points towards the probabilities issued).

1558397213018.png

The thing is, nothing about the current convective organization and what's happened thus far inspires confidence that the sort of destructive storms this environment could produce, will actually occur over the remaining hours of the event. As I write this, there are zero tornado warnings in Oklahoma. That's a good thing, but it's also incredibly frustrating from a forecasting standpoint. I'm just going to wait a few hours before drawing any conclusions on the severity of today.
 
I guess we can look ahead to the impressive late spring heat wave. Coming this week. Upper 90s ?‍♂️ wowza
 
RVD said:
For people already saying that this is a bust, current STP values (not forecasts) are >12 across south-central OK. MLCAPE is in the 3000-4000 J/kg range, shear is high, etc. I think the SPC was completely warranted in the language and forecast they went with, given that every motivating environmental condition they mentioned in their discussion has been realized (and points towards the probabilities issued).

View attachment 19699

The thing is, nothing about the current convective organization and what's happened thus far inspires confidence that the sort of destructive storms this environment could produce, will actually occur over the remaining hours of the event. As I write this, there are zero tornado warnings in Oklahoma. That's a good thing, but it's also incredibly frustrating from a forecasting standpoint. I'm just going to wait a few hours before drawing any conclusions on the severity of today.
Click to expand...

As Ive watched the events so far Im starting to believe some of the composite numbers were tweaked to show higher numbers. Lots of extreme numbers this year for realitively mundane systems.
 
RVD said:
For people already saying that this is a bust, current STP values (not forecasts) are >12 across south-central OK. MLCAPE is in the 3000-4000 J/kg range, shear is high, etc. I think the SPC was completely warranted in the language and forecast they went with, given that every motivating environmental condition they mentioned in their discussion has been realized (and points towards the probabilities issued).

View attachment 19699

The thing is, nothing about the current convective organization and what's happened thus far inspires confidence that the sort of destructive storms this environment could produce, will actually occur over the remaining hours of the event. As I write this, there are zero tornado warnings in Oklahoma. That's a good thing, but it's also incredibly frustrating from a forecasting standpoint. I'm just going to wait a few hours before drawing any conclusions on the severity of today.
Click to expand...
STP values have been high all day, the problem is the lapse rates are no good.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
STP values have been high all day, the problem is the lapse rates are no good.
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Judging by radar it appears the cap eroded too quickly and SW to SSW shear vectors lined it all out.

The most dangerous storms by far are those in central TX. Shear vectors are more westerly and instability is likely less impedded.
 
Based off this video and hearing that the tornado did lift before hitting much of the town I'd say most of Magnum simultaneously both got lucky, and unlucky:



That severe thunderstorm looked like a tropical storm in some clips I saw. So if you didn't get hit by the tornado you got hit by a severe storm that acted like a tropical storm instead.
 
reaaon why nothing has gotten going that much in the warm sector is becuase of this Cap above 700mb, killing off convection, storms to the SW is possibly cutting off high level/low level flow, allowing this warm layer to get going, or this warm layer could be getting brought from WAA from the SW, this warm layer is saving property and lives, other than that Cap, this sounding is insane, this just goes to show how rare of a setup and how many things allowed for the super outbreak to happen back in 2011 0C8735CD-59FD-435E-B3A2-5763D7608ABC.jpeg
 
Okay one more Magnum tornado thing. This is pretty cool, although it's likely that this tornado didn't meet what its potential could've been. Probably an EF2 based off damage that happened:



Kinda noticed this look on regular radar too.

Edit: I see Myfrotho704 posted the same thing.
 
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They really shouldn’t have closed every single school down in the state. Forecasting tornadoes is always hard but they are also quite isolated to be making such decisions.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
And also
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I may look stupid saying this as Im very rusty in terminology, but I dont believe that is correct. If I remember right and all things considered equal, a Delta V of 90m/s would equal an inbound and outbound wind speed of ~45m/s or 100mph.

If that is correct it really isnt that impressive.
 
Arcc said:
I may look stupid saying this as Im very rusty in terminology, but I dont believe that is correct. If I remember right and all things considered equal, a Delta V of 90m/s would equal an inbound and outbound wind speed of ~45m/s or 100mph.

If that is correct it really isnt that impressive.
Click to expand...

It had to be more than 100mph, heck of a video right here, definitely had that violent look
 
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