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Severe POSS SEVERE WEATHER STARTING 05-17-2019 and BEYOND



Spotted this on radar before I saw this and noticed how this storm was intensifying.

The wording of that tornado watch is crazy. Pretty sure once I'm done with my meeting to see if I can figure out anything about my interview technique things will have gotten started.
 
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Mesoscale Discussion 0703
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Areas affected...Texas Panhandle/West Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 197...

Valid 201837Z - 201930Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 197 continues.

SUMMARY...Rapid development of tornadic supercells expected in the
next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway across the Texas
Panhandle and west Texas within an environment characterized by
MLCAPE of 3500-4000 J/kg, effective bulk shear of 50-60 kt, and
effective SRH of 300+ m^2/s^2. In addition, observed soundings
launched by the TORUS field program in this area (Wellington, TX)
indicate weak CIN and a favorable low-level kinematic environment
for tornadoes in proximity to the developing convection, with a
sickle-shaped hodograph and 0-1 km AGL SRH near 300 m^2/s^2.
Convection that is developing now is expected to mature quickly, and
given the ambient environment, storms should quickly evolve into
supercell structures capable of significant, long-tracked tornadoes
within the next hour or two -- in agreement with SPC objective
analysis.
 
This is without a shadow of doubt the craziest pre-severe environmental sounding I've ever seen via 16z HRRR for the entirety of southwestern Oklahoma.

For chasing purposes, the one positive is the lack of continued veering above 2-3 km which will deflect more of the precipitation away from the mesocyclone keeping more of the storms closer to classic-type rather than high precipitation.
View attachment 19673
Good point, I was so caught up in the amount of moisture and how low LCLs were that I was thinking some HP action, that lack of veering is crucial and could really help out today against HP monsters shrouded in rain
 
Here we go. A Tornado warning is now in effect for Dickens and Motley County, TX.
 
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