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Severe Poss severe threat late this week

Latest outlook from the SPC has added a 30% severe weather probability for parts of Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Oklahoma for day 5 (Friday) as well as expanded the 15% risk area slightly from the previous outlook.287CF767-08AA-40A6-BFF0-8CAFBCDA4E63.gif

Day 6 (Saturday) has also seen the 15% probability area expand some into Tennessee and Western Georgia.2D977CB3-BC6A-4D25-8EC8-599569E9826A.gif
 
Looks like your average moist sounding type of setup, I know soundings at this range ain’t really useful, but there’s already a signal that profiles are gonna be saturated unless you get sun peaking thru and perhaps get a little low level drying, but this is typical sounding for severe for this time of the year, also lots unidirectional flow tho 37FD25E8-2A49-45A0-9E21-7B701E0DEB3A.png
 
These 0z Euro soundings near Tyler, TX aren't bad. A few things that stink are these critical angles ~50 degrees, implies lots of crosswise vorticity generation and a lack of directional low-level shear, neither of which are as favorable for tornadoes.

ecmwf_full_2020010600_120_32.75--95.25.png
 
These 0z Euro soundings near Tyler, TX aren't bad. A few things that stink are these critical angles ~50 degrees, implies lots of crosswise vorticity generation and a lack of directional low-level shear, neither of which are as favorable for tornadoes.

View attachment 29794

Low-level lapse rates also suck in the pre-storm environment, 5.5C/km is mediocre at best.
 
Hmmm
913a5d43b35c55a57ba3a9284c788f4d.jpg


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WELL THEY HAVE MOVED THE 30% AREA FURTHER EAST ON THE DAY 5 SPC OUTLOOK
day5prob.gif

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 070959
SPC AC 070959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2020

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A multi-day severe weather episode is expected Day 4-5/Fri-Sat from
the Arklatex into the Deep South vicinity. An intense mid/upper
trough over the Four Corners and northwest Mexico early on Friday
will eject eastward into the southern Plains by 12z Saturday. At the
surface, low pressure will develop over TX and shift east/northeast
toward central AR by 12z Saturday. Ahead of the low, rich Gulf
moisture will stream northward across eastern TX/OK and expand
eastward across the lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast states through
Saturday. 60s F dewpoints are forecast to extend as far north as the
lower OH Valley by Saturday morning, with upper 60s to near 70s
dewpoints over parts of the Arklatex on Friday into much of
LA/MS/AL/GA on Saturday. This anomalously rich and broad warm sector
will reside beneath a 50-70 kt southerly low level jet and 80+ kt
southwesterly 500 mb jet streak. While some questions remain over
how pristine the warm sector ahead of the surface low and cold front
will remain, especially on Saturday, this kinematic and
thermodynamic parameter-space will support severe thunderstorms
capable of all severe hazards from the Arklatex into the TN
Valley/Gulf Coast states Friday and Saturday. Mixed convective modes
are anticipated given the strength of shear, with a QLCS likely
developing ahead of the surface cold front. This will support
damaging gusts and mesovortex tornado potential. Additionally, any
semi-discrete convection that develops ahead of the QLCS will be in
an environment capable of supporting supercells and tornadoes,

especially from east TX through central MS/AL.

Beyond Saturday, a reprieve from severe potential is expected on Day
6/Sun as high pressure builds over the east and the surface cold
front stalls near the southeast Atlantic coast and northern Gulf
coast. However, some severe potential could return early next week
as a mean trough is forecast to persist across the western half of
the country while shortwave impulses eject east/northeast from the
southern Plains through the Midwest on Day 7-8/Mon-Tue. Confidence
in how much the airmass will be able to recover and destabilize
remains in question, as the southeastern U.S. is forecast to receive
quite a bit of rain. As such, confidence is too low to include
severe probs at this time.

..Leitman.. 01/07/2020
 
AND FROM MY LOCAL BMX NWS OFFICE

.LONG TERM...
/UPDATED AT 0359 AM CST TUE JAN 07 2020/

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL FAVOR LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE KEEPING
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTHWEST.

HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH MATURES OVER
TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO, LEADING TO THE ONSET OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT A WIDE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE
TILT. THIS SHORTWAVE APPEARS POISED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE HIGH-
QUALITY WARM SECTOR, WITH STRONG DYNAMICS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
AND AIMED DIRECTLY AT THE WARM SECTOR. IN OTHER WORDS, THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT, AND
MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN THIS REGARD. AT MINIMUM,

STRONG FORCING WOULD RESULT IN A QLCS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND EMBEDDED TORNADOES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE QLCS WILL DEPEND ON THE
STATE OF THE WARM SECTOR. AT FACE VALUE, MODELS INDICATE CAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG, BUT THIS COULD BE TOO LOW. IF THE WARM
SECTOR IS RELATIVELY UNCONTAMINATED, TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SATURDAY, AIDING IN THE FORMATION OF CELLULAR CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE QLCS. DUE TO UNUSUALLY GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY, OUR

THREAT CONFIDENCE WILL BE RAISED TO A 3 OUT OF 5 IN THE HWO.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY
EVENING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY EXCEPT ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HERE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND
RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND
MOVE NORTHWARD TO NEAR I-59 ON MONDAY.

87/GRANTHAM
 
AND FROM MY LOCAL BMX NWS OFFICE

.LONG TERM...
/UPDATED AT 0359 AM CST TUE JAN 07 2020/

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL FAVOR LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE KEEPING
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTHWEST.

HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH MATURES OVER
TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO, LEADING TO THE ONSET OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT A WIDE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE
TILT. THIS SHORTWAVE APPEARS POISED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE HIGH-
QUALITY WARM SECTOR, WITH STRONG DYNAMICS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
AND AIMED DIRECTLY AT THE WARM SECTOR. IN OTHER WORDS, THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT, AND
MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN THIS REGARD. AT MINIMUM,

STRONG FORCING WOULD RESULT IN A QLCS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND EMBEDDED TORNADOES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE QLCS WILL DEPEND ON THE
STATE OF THE WARM SECTOR. AT FACE VALUE, MODELS INDICATE CAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG, BUT THIS COULD BE TOO LOW. IF THE WARM
SECTOR IS RELATIVELY UNCONTAMINATED, TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SATURDAY, AIDING IN THE FORMATION OF CELLULAR CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE QLCS. DUE TO UNUSUALLY GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY, OUR

THREAT CONFIDENCE WILL BE RAISED TO A 3 OUT OF 5 IN THE HWO.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY
EVENING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY EXCEPT ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HERE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND
RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND
MOVE NORTHWARD TO NEAR I-59 ON MONDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

Definitely trust MG, but I'm really trying to find what he's seeing.
 
Definitely trust MG, but I'm really trying to find what he's seeing.

I would say he thinks the models are underestimating the quality of the warm sector due to the pronounced ML drying in the morning/early afternoon. This would possibly lead to more cloud breaks thus strengthening lapse rates. I mean the dynamics are certainly impressive enough on their own.
 
I would say he thinks the models are underestimating the quality of the warm sector due to the pronounced ML drying in the morning/early afternoon. This would possibly lead to more cloud breaks thus strengthening lapse rates. I mean the dynamics are certainly impressive enough on their own.

One of the reasons I’m thankful my butt isn’t on the line. For instance about the only thing the Euro has going for just a decent event is dynamics, low level moisture and maybe wind energy.
 
One of the reasons I’m thankful my butt isn’t on the line. For instance about the only thing the Euro has going for just a decent event is dynamics and low level moisture.

Absolutely agree. Taken at face value none of the globals really look that ominous thermodynamically but 3-4 hours of insolation would yield a much different environment. I'm about to check some analogs and such.
 
Must just be based on time of year and general trough location. From looking at soundings and 500mb, I don’t see any comparison.
Must just be based on time of year and general trough location. From looking at soundings and 500mb, I don’t see any comparison.
number 2 was a November 2004 event, cant remember exact date, yeah im not either at this time
 
Dont understand why some people are saying outbreak way too soon for that and by the looks of it doesn't seem really bad yet
 
Dont understand why some people are saying outbreak way too soon for that and by the looks of it doesn't seem really bad yet
Dont understand why some people are saying outbreak way too soon for that and by the looks of it doesn't seem really bad yet
SPC 30 percent outlook on day 5 is pretty rare though... cant over look it
 
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