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Severe Poss severe threat late this week

PEA_RIDGE

PEA_RIDGE

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SPC has already defined a 15% area for this weekend in MS and AL. Local nws says all modes of severe weather possible. Just waiting on the timing to get closer to nail down details.
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Last night's EURO showing mid to upper 60s Tds out ahead.
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NWTENN said:
Put all that in English for me? Potentially a MDT kind of day?
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Doubtful at this point, lots of possible issues. Probably slight risk to possibly elevated if everything ends up perfect for a QLCS for wind damage with embedded supercell structures.
 
NWTENN said:
Put all that in English for me? Potentially a MDT kind of day?
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It’s unlikely rn, tbh it’s To early to say what type of risk (slight already likely with the 15%) but this looks like one of those classic cool season severe setups in the SE with strong wind shear and low instability along with modest mid/low level lapse rates, the amount of instability really matters and typically globals underestimate it a bit, it’s a bit to early to break things down tho atm BE49F81A-F4E6-4B54-8402-40BC30CE53A4.png7EDC771D-BECE-4512-897A-9FE05293149E.pngD2B37A1F-323C-488B-B0B2-7B5F0AADA123.png
 
Anyone that tries to forecasts specifics this far out is well.......a "hyper" (i coin that phrase!) To say a Mdt Risk or slight risk is way to far out. What we can say day 6 and day 7 should be monitored. I would also say 150miles from any one point from the 15% hatched area may or may not see anything as timing and development begin to come together over the next few days, the specifics will begin to come into better range. For now watch a model or 2 sit back and see how this puppy takes shape! Happy new years all!
 
This is how you get bad severe weather in the SE, neutrally tilted ULL/shortwave, almost tries to go negative tilt but boy those 850mb winds are screaming, and instability is there this run, let see how it changes these next few days, this run sorta give me vibes to last early March, but it’s just a run 0A4B6C9A-4EAA-4EFD-A1FD-855162BC230F.png8FDF67E6-5BEB-442F-9675-D7607B2FA615.png484F31CC-75A8-4A71-8741-A8C41AF5171C.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is how you get bad severe weather in the SE, neutrally tilted ULL/shortwave, almost tries to go negative tilt but boy those 850mb winds are screaming, and instability is there this run, let see how it changes these next few days, this run sorta give me vibes to last early March, but it’s just a run View attachment 29771View attachment 29772View attachment 29773
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Good bit different than last March. You may get bad severe weather out of that look but 99% of the time it's gonna be from a QLCS. Ton of linear forcing there.
 
Arcc said:
Good bit different than last March. You may get bad severe weather out of that look but 99% of the time it's gonna be from a QLCS. Ton of linear forcing there.
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true, low level winds backed out the S/SE would definitely make things more interesting if it manages to go -tilt, but this run showed mostly unidirectional flow, especially more east, anyways this is definitely a timeframe to watch regardless, QLCS or not, QLCS can be problematic aswell as we saw last year in the SE
 
Hpdb301 said:
Anyone that tries to forecasts specifics this far out is well.......a "hyper" (i coin that phrase!) To say a Mdt Risk or slight risk is way to far out. What we can say day 6 and day 7 should be monitored. I would also say 150miles from any one point from the 15% hatched area may or may not see anything as timing and development begin to come together over the next few days, the specifics will begin to come into better range. For now watch a model or 2 sit back and see how this puppy takes shape! Happy new years all!
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I try to look at Severe weather being talked about this far out as more of a likelihood than the severity of the situation imo.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
true, low level winds backed out the S/SE would definitely make things more interesting if it manages to go -tilt, but this run showed mostly unidirectional flow, especially more east, anyways this is definitely a timeframe to watch regardless, QLCS or not, QLCS can be problematic aswell as we saw last year in the SE
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The problem is that if it goes negative tilt, you actually add even greater forcing which can lead to even more junk convection and lower instability. It needs to broaden out a good bit to become a very dangerous threat. That need doubles due to the moist profile the soundings are showing.
 
Latest outlook from the SPC has added a 30% severe weather probability for parts of Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Oklahoma for day 5 (Friday) as well as expanded the 15% risk area slightly from the previous outlook.287CF767-08AA-40A6-BFF0-8CAFBCDA4E63.gif

Day 6 (Saturday) has also seen the 15% probability area expand some into Tennessee and Western Georgia.2D977CB3-BC6A-4D25-8EC8-599569E9826A.gif
 
Looks like your average moist sounding type of setup, I know soundings at this range ain’t really useful, but there’s already a signal that profiles are gonna be saturated unless you get sun peaking thru and perhaps get a little low level drying, but this is typical sounding for severe for this time of the year, also lots unidirectional flow tho 37FD25E8-2A49-45A0-9E21-7B701E0DEB3A.png
 
These 0z Euro soundings near Tyler, TX aren't bad. A few things that stink are these critical angles ~50 degrees, implies lots of crosswise vorticity generation and a lack of directional low-level shear, neither of which are as favorable for tornadoes.

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Webberweather53 said:
These 0z Euro soundings near Tyler, TX aren't bad. A few things that stink are these critical angles ~50 degrees, implies lots of crosswise vorticity generation and a lack of directional low-level shear, neither of which are as favorable for tornadoes.

View attachment 29794
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Low-level lapse rates also suck in the pre-storm environment, 5.5C/km is mediocre at best.
 
WELL THEY HAVE MOVED THE 30% AREA FURTHER EAST ON THE DAY 5 SPC OUTLOOK
day5prob.gif

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 070959
SPC AC 070959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2020

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A multi-day severe weather episode is expected Day 4-5/Fri-Sat from
the Arklatex into the Deep South vicinity. An intense mid/upper
trough over the Four Corners and northwest Mexico early on Friday
will eject eastward into the southern Plains by 12z Saturday. At the
surface, low pressure will develop over TX and shift east/northeast
toward central AR by 12z Saturday. Ahead of the low, rich Gulf
moisture will stream northward across eastern TX/OK and expand
eastward across the lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast states through
Saturday. 60s F dewpoints are forecast to extend as far north as the
lower OH Valley by Saturday morning, with upper 60s to near 70s
dewpoints over parts of the Arklatex on Friday into much of
LA/MS/AL/GA on Saturday. This anomalously rich and broad warm sector
will reside beneath a 50-70 kt southerly low level jet and 80+ kt
southwesterly 500 mb jet streak. While some questions remain over
how pristine the warm sector ahead of the surface low and cold front
will remain, especially on Saturday, this kinematic and
thermodynamic parameter-space will support severe thunderstorms
capable of all severe hazards from the Arklatex into the TN
Valley/Gulf Coast states Friday and Saturday. Mixed convective modes
are anticipated given the strength of shear, with a QLCS likely
developing ahead of the surface cold front. This will support
damaging gusts and mesovortex tornado potential. Additionally, any
semi-discrete convection that develops ahead of the QLCS will be in
an environment capable of supporting supercells and tornadoes,
especially from east TX through central MS/AL.

Beyond Saturday, a reprieve from severe potential is expected on Day
6/Sun as high pressure builds over the east and the surface cold
front stalls near the southeast Atlantic coast and northern Gulf
coast. However, some severe potential could return early next week
as a mean trough is forecast to persist across the western half of
the country while shortwave impulses eject east/northeast from the
southern Plains through the Midwest on Day 7-8/Mon-Tue. Confidence
in how much the airmass will be able to recover and destabilize
remains in question, as the southeastern U.S. is forecast to receive
quite a bit of rain. As such, confidence is too low to include
severe probs at this time.

..Leitman.. 01/07/2020
 
AND FROM MY LOCAL BMX NWS OFFICE

.LONG TERM...
/UPDATED AT 0359 AM CST TUE JAN 07 2020/

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL FAVOR LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE KEEPING
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTHWEST.

HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH MATURES OVER
TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO, LEADING TO THE ONSET OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT A WIDE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE
TILT. THIS SHORTWAVE APPEARS POISED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE HIGH-
QUALITY WARM SECTOR, WITH STRONG DYNAMICS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
AND AIMED DIRECTLY AT THE WARM SECTOR. IN OTHER WORDS, THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT, AND
MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN THIS REGARD. AT MINIMUM,
STRONG FORCING WOULD RESULT IN A QLCS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND EMBEDDED TORNADOES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE QLCS WILL DEPEND ON THE
STATE OF THE WARM SECTOR. AT FACE VALUE, MODELS INDICATE CAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG, BUT THIS COULD BE TOO LOW. IF THE WARM
SECTOR IS RELATIVELY UNCONTAMINATED, TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SATURDAY, AIDING IN THE FORMATION OF CELLULAR CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE QLCS. DUE TO UNUSUALLY GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY, OUR
THREAT CONFIDENCE WILL BE RAISED TO A 3 OUT OF 5 IN THE HWO.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY
EVENING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY EXCEPT ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HERE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND
RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND
MOVE NORTHWARD TO NEAR I-59 ON MONDAY.

87/GRANTHAM
 
PEA_RIDGE said:
AND FROM MY LOCAL BMX NWS OFFICE

.LONG TERM...
/UPDATED AT 0359 AM CST TUE JAN 07 2020/

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL FAVOR LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE KEEPING
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTHWEST.

HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH MATURES OVER
TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO, LEADING TO THE ONSET OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT A WIDE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE
TILT. THIS SHORTWAVE APPEARS POISED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE HIGH-
QUALITY WARM SECTOR, WITH STRONG DYNAMICS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
AND AIMED DIRECTLY AT THE WARM SECTOR. IN OTHER WORDS, THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT, AND
MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN THIS REGARD. AT MINIMUM,
STRONG FORCING WOULD RESULT IN A QLCS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND EMBEDDED TORNADOES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE QLCS WILL DEPEND ON THE
STATE OF THE WARM SECTOR. AT FACE VALUE, MODELS INDICATE CAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG, BUT THIS COULD BE TOO LOW. IF THE WARM
SECTOR IS RELATIVELY UNCONTAMINATED, TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SATURDAY, AIDING IN THE FORMATION OF CELLULAR CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE QLCS. DUE TO UNUSUALLY GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY, OUR
THREAT CONFIDENCE WILL BE RAISED TO A 3 OUT OF 5 IN THE HWO.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY
EVENING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY EXCEPT ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HERE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND
RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND
MOVE NORTHWARD TO NEAR I-59 ON MONDAY.

87/GRANTHAM
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Definitely trust MG, but I'm really trying to find what he's seeing.
 
Arcc said:
Definitely trust MG, but I'm really trying to find what he's seeing.
Click to expand...

I would say he thinks the models are underestimating the quality of the warm sector due to the pronounced ML drying in the morning/early afternoon. This would possibly lead to more cloud breaks thus strengthening lapse rates. I mean the dynamics are certainly impressive enough on their own.
 
Claycochaser said:
I would say he thinks the models are underestimating the quality of the warm sector due to the pronounced ML drying in the morning/early afternoon. This would possibly lead to more cloud breaks thus strengthening lapse rates. I mean the dynamics are certainly impressive enough on their own.
Click to expand...

One of the reasons I’m thankful my butt isn’t on the line. For instance about the only thing the Euro has going for just a decent event is dynamics, low level moisture and maybe wind energy.
 
Arcc said:
One of the reasons I’m thankful my butt isn’t on the line. For instance about the only thing the Euro has going for just a decent event is dynamics and low level moisture.
Click to expand...

Absolutely agree. Taken at face value none of the globals really look that ominous thermodynamically but 3-4 hours of insolation would yield a much different environment. I'm about to check some analogs and such.
 
Arcc said:
Must just be based on time of year and general trough location. From looking at soundings and 500mb, I don’t see any comparison.
Click to expand...
Arcc said:
Must just be based on time of year and general trough location. From looking at soundings and 500mb, I don’t see any comparison.
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number 2 was a November 2004 event, cant remember exact date, yeah im not either at this time
 
Dont understand why some people are saying outbreak way too soon for that and by the looks of it doesn't seem really bad yet
 
Rick said:
Dont understand why some people are saying outbreak way too soon for that and by the looks of it doesn't seem really bad yet
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Probably to their defense, boredom. What really has happened weather wise that is really interesting since Dorian that isn’t drought or heat?
 
Rick said:
Dont understand why some people are saying outbreak way too soon for that and by the looks of it doesn't seem really bad yet
Click to expand...
Rick said:
Dont understand why some people are saying outbreak way too soon for that and by the looks of it doesn't seem really bad yet
Click to expand...
SPC 30 percent outlook on day 5 is pretty rare though... cant over look it
 
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