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Severe Poss severe threat late this week

PEA_RIDGE

ASST. FIRE CHIEF
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SPC has already defined a 15% area for this weekend in MS and AL. Local nws says all modes of severe weather possible. Just waiting on the timing to get closer to nail down details.
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Last night's EURO showing mid to upper 60s Tds out ahead.
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Put all that in English for me? Potentially a MDT kind of day?

Doubtful at this point, lots of possible issues. Probably slight risk to possibly elevated if everything ends up perfect for a QLCS for wind damage with embedded supercell structures.
 
Put all that in English for me? Potentially a MDT kind of day?

It’s unlikely rn, tbh it’s To early to say what type of risk (slight already likely with the 15%) but this looks like one of those classic cool season severe setups in the SE with strong wind shear and low instability along with modest mid/low level lapse rates, the amount of instability really matters and typically globals underestimate it a bit, it’s a bit to early to break things down tho atm BE49F81A-F4E6-4B54-8402-40BC30CE53A4.png7EDC771D-BECE-4512-897A-9FE05293149E.pngD2B37A1F-323C-488B-B0B2-7B5F0AADA123.png
 
Anyone that tries to forecasts specifics this far out is well.......a "hyper" (i coin that phrase!) To say a Mdt Risk or slight risk is way to far out. What we can say day 6 and day 7 should be monitored. I would also say 150miles from any one point from the 15% hatched area may or may not see anything as timing and development begin to come together over the next few days, the specifics will begin to come into better range. For now watch a model or 2 sit back and see how this puppy takes shape! Happy new years all!
 
This is how you get bad severe weather in the SE, neutrally tilted ULL/shortwave, almost tries to go negative tilt but boy those 850mb winds are screaming, and instability is there this run, let see how it changes these next few days, this run sorta give me vibes to last early March, but it’s just a run 0A4B6C9A-4EAA-4EFD-A1FD-855162BC230F.png8FDF67E6-5BEB-442F-9675-D7607B2FA615.png484F31CC-75A8-4A71-8741-A8C41AF5171C.png
 
This is how you get bad severe weather in the SE, neutrally tilted ULL/shortwave, almost tries to go negative tilt but boy those 850mb winds are screaming, and instability is there this run, let see how it changes these next few days, this run sorta give me vibes to last early March, but it’s just a run View attachment 29771View attachment 29772View attachment 29773

Good bit different than last March. You may get bad severe weather out of that look but 99% of the time it's gonna be from a QLCS. Ton of linear forcing there.
 
Good bit different than last March. You may get bad severe weather out of that look but 99% of the time it's gonna be from a QLCS. Ton of linear forcing there.

true, low level winds backed out the S/SE would definitely make things more interesting if it manages to go -tilt, but this run showed mostly unidirectional flow, especially more east, anyways this is definitely a timeframe to watch regardless, QLCS or not, QLCS can be problematic aswell as we saw last year in the SE
 
Anyone that tries to forecasts specifics this far out is well.......a "hyper" (i coin that phrase!) To say a Mdt Risk or slight risk is way to far out. What we can say day 6 and day 7 should be monitored. I would also say 150miles from any one point from the 15% hatched area may or may not see anything as timing and development begin to come together over the next few days, the specifics will begin to come into better range. For now watch a model or 2 sit back and see how this puppy takes shape! Happy new years all!

I try to look at Severe weather being talked about this far out as more of a likelihood than the severity of the situation imo.
 
true, low level winds backed out the S/SE would definitely make things more interesting if it manages to go -tilt, but this run showed mostly unidirectional flow, especially more east, anyways this is definitely a timeframe to watch regardless, QLCS or not, QLCS can be problematic aswell as we saw last year in the SE

The problem is that if it goes negative tilt, you actually add even greater forcing which can lead to even more junk convection and lower instability. It needs to broaden out a good bit to become a very dangerous threat. That need doubles due to the moist profile the soundings are showing.
 
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