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Political Thread

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Downeastnc said:
Sanders would lose, the independents would go 3rd party or back to Trump....anyone running on as platform like Sanders or Warren wont win nationally....in fact they would fuel a bigger Republican turnout, Biden can and probably would beat Trump, but only a moderate Dem can swing the middle....
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I was just saying it wouldn't be close to 80% I'm sure Trump wins against anyone
 
GaWx said:
Get Trump out now and give enough time for Kasich, Haley, or someone else before it is too late? Or even Pence if he's not also going down?
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I was hoping Howard Schultz would have stuck around, if Biden picked him as a running mate I would consider that ticket then hope Biden had to retire early.....
 
Downeastnc said:
Sanders would lose, the independents would go 3rd party or back to Trump....anyone running on as platform like Sanders or Warren wont win nationally....in fact they would fuel a bigger Republican turnout, Biden can and probably would beat Trump, but only a moderate Dem can swing the middle....
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Sorry but sleepy joe Biden would not beat trump. At a trump rally yesterday this is what happened..1580354199315.png
 
Rally size means nothing, Hillary beat Trump by 15 pts in New Jersey in 2016 lol.....and Trump has zero chance of winning NJ in 2020 regardless of how many people went to that rally.....

Biden currently holds a 4-5 pt lead over Trump nationally, and leads Trump in many of the crucial swing states...
 
Downeastnc said:
Rally size means nothing, Hillary beat Trump by 15 pts in New Jersey in 2016 lol.....and Trump has zero chance of winning NJ in 2020 regardless of how many people went to that rally.....

Biden currently holds a 4-5 pt lead over Trump nationally, and leads Trump in many of the crucial swing states...
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My feeling has been for awhile that Trump wins against anyone if the economy remains strong. "It's the economy, stupid." applies here imo, especially since it has been so strong.
 


Michael Moore called the 2016 election and said Trump would win. He says Bernie for 2020. This article provides evidence. Kinda funny seeing these posts today, eerily similar to democrats being so sure of hillary in 2016. And seriously why is it so hard to imagine? I mean why would people want to make healthcare more affordable smh crazy how a lot of people agree on this issue seriously so unethical of them wow...
 
Downeastnc said:
Rally size means nothing, Hillary beat Trump by 15 pts in New Jersey in 2016 lol.....and Trump has zero chance of winning NJ in 2020 regardless of how many people went to that rally.....

Biden currently holds a 4-5 pt lead over Trump nationally, and leads Trump in many of the crucial swing states...
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Biden?? C-mon man. He doesn’t even know where he is at half the time much less keeping his lips and hands off of women?‍♂️
 
Technically Trump has been impeached. He will be acquitted because his party will cover for him, but he was impeached the moment the articles were sent over to the Senate. Anyway, I am glad I have returned to NC to help vote out GOP fascists. I also like to burn Confederate flags for fun.
 
Heelyes said:
I think you would be surprised how competitive Bernie would be in the swing States. If you get out of the snowless southern bubble things aren't as pro Trump as you think
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Approval on Trumps ecomomy is +15 to +20 nationally and will probably continue to rise. An old rich socialist white guy has no shot unless that falters.
 
GaWx said:
My feeling has been for awhile that Trump wins against anyone if the economy remains strong. "It's the economy, stupid." applies here imo, especially since it has been so strong.
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I agree for the most part, however Trump really only won 2016 by less than 100k votes over 3 states, it was that close.....currently Biden is ahead of Trump in polling in NC, WI, PA, MI, OH, FL, heck Trump is only up 1.5 pts on Biden in TEXAS!!!! I guess its early and polling is obviously going to tighten up but Trump needs to win a lot of those states above to win again and right now he is behind in all of them.

The economy is about the only thing Trump has going for him, if the polls are to be believed it is not enough.
 
Downeastnc said:
I agree for the most part, however Trump really only won 2016 by less than 100k votes over 3 states, it was that close.....currently Biden is ahead of Trump in polling in NC, WI, PA, MI, OH, FL, heck Trump is only up 1.5 pts on Biden in TEXAS!!!! I guess its early and polling is obviously going to tighten up but Trump needs to win a lot of those states above to win again and right now he is behind in all of them.

The economy is about the only thing Trump has going for him, if the polls are to be believed it is not enough.
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I expect polling will tighten up as we get closer, I don’t trust it tbh after hearing for months Hillary would easily win and then it gradually shifted closer to reality as the election drew near. I’ve read a bit about Hillary or Michelle running in 2020, I don’t think they will but I think Michelle Obama would have a good chance to win if she actually did run.
 
I fully expect Trump to rise in the polls over the coming months. If the economy falters, all bets are off, but I imagine the phrase "The enemy I know is better than the enemy I don't know" will take over. Trump may not be well liked, but with the economy steaming along, I think the fear of a changing President killing it will fuel Trumps reelection.
 
snowlover91 said:
I expect polling will tighten up as we get closer, I don’t trust it tbh after hearing for months Hillary would easily win and then it gradually shifted closer to reality as the election drew near. I’ve read a bit about Hillary or Michelle running in 2020, I don’t think they will but I think Michelle Obama would have a good chance to win if she actually did run.
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Michelle could win, she is very popular, bringing Hillary back is never gonna happen, she is single handily the worse candidate ever, the DNC want's and probably will get Biden....Bernie is playing spoiler again like he did in 2016 but he wont win it, he will win a few early primaries but on Super Tues he gets spanked and Biden pulls away from the pack...
 
Downeastnc said:
Sanders would lose, the independents would go 3rd party or back to Trump....anyone running on as platform like Sanders or Warren wont win nationally....in fact they would fuel a bigger Republican turnout, Biden can and probably would beat Trump, but only a moderate Dem can swing the middle....
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I think the problem Biden may have is with the hard left base. If he wins the nomination, the democrats may get accused on riging it in the favor of a establishment candidate and stay home. Lots of interesting dynamics in this cycle.
 
Arcc said:
I fully expect Trump to rise in the polls over the coming months. If the economy falters, all bets are off, but I imagine the phrase "The enemy I know is better than the enemy I don't know" will take over. Trump may not be well liked, but with the economy steaming along, I think the fear of a changing President killing it will fuel Trumps reelection.
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A lot will have to do with how the trial plays out, if the GOP cant keep Bolton and others off the witness stand I think Trump loses for sure.....right now according to many polls 50% of the nation wants him removed from office...that is significant, the swing in independents favoring removal over the last few weeks has been big with over half of independents polled now supporting removal...So Trump would need people that currently support removing him from office to change their minds and actually vote to keep him over someone like Biden.....that's a tall order IMO.

You have the left base pegged all wrong.....the Dem turnout in 2020 will be huge regardless of the candidate as removing Trump is their goal....look at how badly the Dems crushed the GOP on turnout in 2018 and that tells you all you needs to know about how motivated the Dems are for 2020.
 
I predict Bernie technically wins nominee. Brokered convetion, Hillary gets super delegate voted in. Trumpmania verse Hillary and the Clinton foundation.
Senate will have bipaartisan vote end of week rejecting the house jv case charade.
 
Downeastnc said:
A lot will have to do with how the trial plays out, if the GOP cant keep Bolton and others off the witness stand I think Trump loses for sure.....right now according to many polls 50% of the nation wants him removed from office...that is significant, the swing in independents favoring removal over the last few weeks has been big with over half of independents polled now supporting removal...So Trump would need people that currently support removing him from office to change their minds and actually vote to keep him over someone like Biden.....that's a tall order IMO.

You have the left base pegged all wrong.....the Dem turnout in 2020 will be huge regardless of the candidate as removing Trump is their goal....look at how badly the Dems crushed the GOP on turnout in 2018 and that tells you all you needs to know about how motivated the Dems are for 2020.
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If the number of people wanting Trump removed stays at 50-51%, Trump's reelection chances are high. He will not need to flip any of them as many of them are probably from democratic strongholds that have zero effect on national election.

You may be correct regarding turnout, but everyone saw the reaction to Biden suggesting a GOP vice president. That is a very fickle group.
 
Arcc said:
If the number of people wanting Trump removed stays at 50-51%, Trump's reelection chances are high. He will not need to flip any of them as many of them are probably from democratic strongholds that have zero effect on national election.

You may be correct regarding turnout, but everyone saw the reaction to Biden suggesting a GOP vice president. That is a very fickle group.
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Trump won 2016 with 46% of the vote he wont be able to do that again.....well its very unlikely anyways given how narrowly he won overall....he lost the popular vote and without those 100k or so votes across MI/WI/PA he would have lost.....Trump needs to gain support and I feel like that is unlikely.
 
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