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Pattern Outside of the SE thread

Finally some damn cutters showing up! Great GFS run! IMG_9106.pngIMG_9105.png
 
One of my goals is to travel to Hawaii to visit the volcanos on the main island. Here's the current forecast near the summit of Mauna Loa:

Overnight
Rain and snow showers likely. Some thunder is also possible. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 75 to 80 mph, with gusts as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Friday
Occasional snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 33. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 70 to 80 mph decreasing to 60 to 70 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible.
Friday Night
Occasional snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 28. Strong and damaging winds, with a west southwest wind 55 to 60 mph decreasing to 46 to 51 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
 
FallsLake said:
One of my goals is to travel to Hawaii to visit the volcanos on the main island. Here's the current forecast near the summit of Mauna Loa:

Overnight
Rain and snow showers likely. Some thunder is also possible. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 75 to 80 mph, with gusts as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Friday
Occasional snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 33. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 70 to 80 mph decreasing to 60 to 70 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible.
Friday Night
Occasional snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 28. Strong and damaging winds, with a west southwest wind 55 to 60 mph decreasing to 46 to 51 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
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My coworkers there right now Higher elevations are pretty cold and there’s been a lot of rain at lower elevations
 
12z models pretty divided on the high temperature for Tuesday afternoon. Euro has OKC at 73. GFS has OKC at 45.

Funny enough the GFS has OKC in the 70s both Monday and Wednesday.
 
FallsLake said:
One of my goals is to travel to Hawaii to visit the volcanos on the main island. Here's the current forecast near the summit of Mauna Loa:

Overnight
Rain and snow showers likely. Some thunder is also possible. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 75 to 80 mph, with gusts as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Friday
Occasional snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 33. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 70 to 80 mph decreasing to 60 to 70 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible.
Friday Night
Occasional snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 28. Strong and damaging winds, with a west southwest wind 55 to 60 mph decreasing to 46 to 51 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
Click to expand...
My Wife, Daughters and I went to Maui in the early 2000s and planned an excursion to see the sunrise and then bike down from the crater of Mount Haleakala. The day before, when we returned from our snorkling excursion, we had a message that they had to cancel the next day due to a Winter Storm above 6000'. Never in our wildest dreams would we have believed that before then.
 
BufordWX said:
12z models pretty divided on the high temperature for Tuesday afternoon. Euro has OKC at 73. GFS has OKC at 45.

Funny enough the GFS has OKC in the 70s both Monday and Wednesday.
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Euro AI has OKC barely above freezing on Tuesday now. Euro still has it in the 70s and the Canadian is close to 80. Very interested to see who wins out.1738384559127.png
 
BufordWX said:
Euro AI has OKC barely above freezing on Tuesday now. Euro still has it in the 70s and the Canadian is close to 80. Very interested to see who wins out.View attachment 167408
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Yeah I dunno where Google gets its weather from but it's running way cooler than everyone else. Every other forecast has more than one day hitting 70 before Thursday. NWS has 3 near or over itScreenshot_20250131-225750_Chrome.png
 
Temperature differences for Tuesday remain staggering. Only pointing out the extremes here, but the canadian is showing 70s while the Euro AI does not even get OKC above freezing on Tuesday. OUN is forecasting 71 right now. Also, the Euro AI has been very consistent on Tuesday being cold.

Canadian:
1738434816507.png

Euro AI:
1738434866001.png
 
BufordWX said:
Temperature differences for Tuesday remain staggering. Only pointing out the extremes here, but the canadian is showing 70s while the Euro AI does not even get OKC above freezing on Tuesday. OUN is forecasting 71 right now. Also, the Euro AI has been very consistent on Tuesday being cold.

Canadian:
View attachment 167439

Euro AI:
View attachment 167440
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Lol some people here gonna be surprised if the Euro AI verifies
 
Brent said:
Lol some people here gonna be surprised if the Euro AI verifies
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I do wonder if it is handling the southern penetration of the cold front more accurately compared to other models. In the past if felt like cold fronts do sometimes come in further south than modeled. Although in the case of the Euro AI it does feel a little extreme. However, the Euro itself is already trending colder. Had 70s for Tuesday yesterday and 12z now shows low 50s. If models continue to trend colder the AI may be on to something.
 
BufordWX said:
I do wonder if it is handling the southern penetration of the cold front more accurately compared to other models. In the past if felt like cold fronts do sometimes come in further south than modeled. Although in the case of the Euro AI it does feel a little extreme. However, the Euro itself is already trending colder. Had 70s for Tuesday yesterday and 12z now shows low 50s. If models continue to trend colder the AI may be on to something.
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Tulsa does have highs in the 50s instead of 70s so they at least see the uncertainty
 
11am in the morning on February 3rd... 80 degrees in the Panhandle! This cold is gonna have to be really crazy to offset this

It should be noted the 0z Euro had 6 inches of snow here next week!
current.TAIR.grad (2).png
 
Long range guidance also continues to
hint at a stronger Arctic intrusion toward the middle and latter
part of next week with several systems possibly bringing chances
for wintry precipitation back to the region. Those trends will
bear watching over the coming days as confidence increases.
 


Lot of mets throwing out interesting signals today for next week and beyond.

Meanwhile it looks like OKC hit 84 today. Very impressive for Feburary 3rd. A few mesonet sites out west made it up to 89.
 
Tarheel1 said:
And the suckiest winter in the history of Iowa, keeps on rollinView attachment 167837View attachment 167838
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Lol the contrast down here is amazing.... Honestly I don't even care if it snows again(though I'm sure it will) that one storm 3 weeks ago was pretty much what I wanted for 3 years now shrugs. I cancelled my other trips this winter too

Way different than last year when I still was going to Colorado because I was so mad
 
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