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Pattern Outside of the SE thread

Brent said:
Tulsa is not impressed View attachment 130866
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To be fair, we are running a fine line here with temperatures only marginally supportive of snowfall. Models ticking just a bit south with the precipitation the last 24 hours hasn’t helped either since we will need some heavier precipitation to help cool down that little bit we will need for snow.
 
Hankjones said:
Yeah, the trail starts in West Yellowstone but Two Top is in ID
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We rented a cabin around rexburg this summer and spent a lot of time up there and in Teton. I keep trying to figure out ways to get back. A buddy of mine moved to Thermopolis so now I have a place to stay.
 
EmersonGA said:
We rented a cabin around rexburg this summer and spent a lot of time up there and in Teton. I keep trying to figure out ways to get back. A buddy of mine moved to Thermopolis so now I have a place to stay.
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That's awesome. I've been four of the past five winters. I love it here. I've heard summer is a bit of a pain with the amount of tourist. How was it when you came during summer?
 
Hankjones said:
That's awesome. I've been four of the past five winters. I love it here. I've heard summer is a bit of a pain with the amount of tourist. How was it when you came during summer?
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We went in early June when they first opened up so it wasn’t bad at all. It was 40s and 50s with snow in the mountains so it timed out perfect. Yellowstone lake still had a lot of ice. It was weird leaving 90 in Atlanta and going to hoodies and jackets. I did miss the humidity which I found strange.
 
BufordWX said:
To be fair, we are running a fine line here with temperatures only marginally supportive of snowfall. Models ticking just a bit south with the precipitation the last 24 hours hasn’t helped either since we will need some heavier precipitation to help cool down that little bit we will need for snow.
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I get that part but I guess I'm not convinced there is a south trend. If we had Arctic air like December sure but with borderline temps I'm not sure it makes sense?

I will say though my gut feeling today is like eh so we'll see if that changes tomorrow ?
 
Tulsa mentioning lightning possible ? still keeping the heavier snow to the south though

The strong kinematics
associated with the upper low along with some period of favorable
lapse rates aloft could also lead to some convective structures
within the heavy snow bands, with a few strikes of lightning not
out of the question late on Tuesday
 
GFS= ? 96DCE61F-04F0-4F79-AA71-F44FAF8B1887.pngE3487630-9BE5-44C6-8ECA-788DDBDFA90E.pngE75D5763-623A-47B9-ADEF-2492E80DB452.pngA9D59E78-FDB6-4F43-9418-46E8E4A73ADD.png5BA7F925-27B0-4A01-AE15-628C02C90C16.png
 
BufordWX said:
You know it’s a tough forecast when even different CWA don’t agree on snow totals.View attachment 130956
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I think we overperform easily if the precip is heavy enough but will the precip be heavy enough is the question. I'm still not convinced we won't see a last minute north shift either

Also I'm gonna be pretty disappointed if we can't beat the inch we got at Christmas tbh

Tulsa did increase totals a little here image1 (40).png
 
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18z 3km NAM hot off the presses. Hard to take this at face value, but if you consider some lower snow ratios and warm ground temperatures then this would still result in at least 3-6 inches accumulation I would think.60FCEDCE-00AF-4972-A9F0-A92EA3C7F96C.png
 
Here we go again!!!! I'm very coastal (two rows of houses from the cliff-link bank) so I won't get the 9 inches, but might get 3-5 before it's all over on Monday!

******************************

Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Caribou ME
225 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023

MEZ029-030-230330-
/O.CON.KCAR.WS.W.0004.230123T0300Z-230124T0300Z/
Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-
Including the cities of Bar Harbor, Ellsworth, Orland, Bucksport,
Eastport, Perry, Machias, Castine, and Cherryfield
225 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and
9 inches, with the higher amounts expected North of Route 1. Winds
gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Coastal Hancock and Coastal Washington Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road
conditions. Patchy blowing snow is expected. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.
Strong winds could cause damage to trees and power lines.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel extremely dangerous. If you must travel,
keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of
an emergency.

The latest road conditions for Maine can be obtained by going to
newengland511.org.

****************************

Everyone stay safe and warm!!!
 
Brent said:
Honestly I wouldnt be surprised if if shifts overhead tbh they always seem to shift last minute and more south doesn't seem likely with temps so borderline
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More storms have missed me this winter by sliding South 2-3 days out! Good luck on this storm! Hoping it hooks NW some, to get me in the game.
 
Brent said:
No doubt there's been an uptick on the models tonight howeverView attachment 131000
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It’s becoming hard to ignore all these models going crazy with the snowfall for Tuesday. Even if you lower the output totals some due to snow ratios and ground temperatures you likely still end up with several inches. It’s not just one or two models showing this either which only makes things more interesting. The Euro still worries me a bit since it has been further south, but it’s pretty much on an island of its own if you look at everything else.

I wonder if the NWS is gonna end up issuing Winter storm watches overnight? At the very least we should get an Advisory sometime tomorrow.
 
BufordWX said:
It’s becoming hard to ignore all these models going crazy with the snowfall for Tuesday. Even if you lower the output totals some due to snow ratios and ground temperatures you likely still end up with several inches. It’s not just one or two models showing this either which only makes things more interesting. The Euro still worries me a bit since it has been further south, but it’s pretty much on an island of its own if you look at everything else.

I wonder if the NWS is gonna end up issuing Winter storm watches overnight? At the very least we should get an Advisory sometime tomorrow.
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I think there are already Winter Storm Watches from Fayetteville to St Louis.
 
Snowlover87 said:
I was watching a weather guy from NWA and he was saying these will be really fat flakes. Not the pixie dust flakes.
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Yeah that part is clear here too. That's also what some mets are using as an argument for lower totals because half of it will melt on contact but we'll see. I'm inclined to agree with @BufordWX I think the NWS is gonna have to extend the watch in the morning if these trends continue
 
CMC coming in hot! ⛄️?8016E22F-BF4F-4CC0-A31D-18FB0CAC0265.png4B618CE2-8437-4F59-BBA3-EE5D103D344D.png
 
Sunday storm has my interest and a lot of model support!9E321072-C71A-4598-8676-FE8AA2225BE9.png254A61B1-0A06-4213-B55C-3CD650FDEB40.pngCE44773A-7B6E-4695-9BBD-FABD469F8071.pngB57CD38D-6AA0-4ABE-BDF8-9C0EB70EEA69.pngB57CD38D-6AA0-4ABE-BDF8-9C0EB70EEA69.png
 
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