• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Ostrich December

Can I cash in now ? This makes these flurries last night look weaksauce, these would be some decent rates and probably would crash the column 1069D25F-866C-4A79-A492-00AF1CED97C0.jpeg1C93D965-6F59-4949-8B54-8021827D3A40.png
 
Let’s see how long this lasts, but that’s a beautiful look with HLB and a legitimate cold source 1256A5D0-5106-409B-B765-552D79A2178E.png296E082E-53B5-461A-94EF-8000E77E3A83.png90189718-F756-4FED-B473-5B0A5BBAC10A.png
 
ATLwxfan said:
Cold chasing moisture. Cold chasing moisture. Cold chasing moisture.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
We are going to have so many more cold days then warm days. Just those couple of warm days we are gonna have precip. Then cold lol. Winter in the SE

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
 
If we could just get all the cold to actually park over the CONUS for a few weeks, all of us could cash in on some snow by the New Year. At least the +PNA looks good for a while.
 
Will Rossman said:
If we could just get all the cold to actually park over the CONUS for a few weeks, all of us could cash in on some snow by the New Year. At least the +PNA looks good for a while.
Click to expand...
I doubt the +PNA will really be a deciding factor between getting snow or not. This week, ours will be too strong, although if we do get snow, it will be from -EPO, which should eventually retrograde into the SER. Models are very much in disagreement as to when that process will happen, but that's just my two cents.
 
Are my eyes deceiving me ?? Is the -NAO coming back to save us .. or is this just another mirage .. it’s been years since we’ve had a solid -NAO help us out
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Are my eyes deceiving me ?? Is the -NAO coming back to save us .. or is this just another mirage .. it’s been years since we’ve had a solid -NAO help us out
Click to expand...
The last strong -NAO was 10 years ago so we are overdue. Interesting how cold Florida was recently and how December 2010 looked for them.

December 2010 temp anomolies.jpg
 
Definitely looks like all systems go from now thru mid-December, and we'll probably have the coldest air of the season knocking on our door step later in week 2 & we definitely won't be torching for a little while. High-latitude North Pacific blocking regimes like this one deliver the coldest patterns possible around here and they typically morph into -WPOs/+EPO/-PNA a week or so after the -EPO peaks.

1606918696997.png

1606918707528.png





I think we'll eventually start to transition to a more canonical Nina regime w/ Aleutian ridge/-PNA/SE ridge by the Winter Solstice (Dec 21st) or so give or take a few days, but there's some considerable uncertainty in this idea & we could go off the beaten path in a big/dramatic way. My current expectation is the whole North Pacific wave pattern will continue retrograding beyond mid-month, leading to the development of a -WPO/+EPO/-PNA w/ the establishment of a big Aleutian ridge in week 3, SE Canada vortex that initially delivers big shots of cold air towards the east-central US & retrogrades towards the Canadian Rockies/central Canada, destroying whatever -NAO we've established in the process & replacing it w/ a stout +NAO as we close in on the 4th week of December (Dec 21-28). Furthermore, the return of Indian Ocean convection next week as shown on both the GEFS & EPS, would give us a positive lag of about 10 days or so for a +NAO to reappear (putting us at Dec 20th ish).

Now, when exactly the transition to a more canonical NINA/SE ridge regime begins is dependent in large part on what initial state the NAO is in imo in addition to the evolution of subseasonal tropical forcing. If we get a very strong, persistent Greenland block/-NAO in week 2, it would probably delay the flip to a warmer regime a little longer, say towards Christmas (or even after that) instead of the Winter Solstice.

As it stands now, (& as I've discussed for a week or more), we should see a legit -EPO come calling in week 2 and deliver some seriously cold air into east-central N America by mid-December. After that the question mark is how long that pattern holds, I believe it will probably terminate around the winter solstice (Dec 21), but it realistically could take until after Christmas for that happen, and that's the only major change I've had in my thinking the past few days. In this latter case, where the good pattern holds thru Christmas thanks largely to the initially intense -NAO, we could be setup for something good in time for the heart of the Holiday Season. Regardless, I think it's at least probable if not likely that we'll eventually see a legit, prolonged warm spell settle in prior to the New Years in the SE US.

Thereafter, it's almost anyone's guess and remains to be seen what could happen, but it's not unrealistic to think we might see a better pattern return around mid-January or so, but that's largely speculation on my end & trying to anticipate how fast the tropical convection in the Indian Ocean propagates into the western Pacific again (it usually takes longer than usual in La Ninas).
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top