Ostrich December

[Darklordsuperstorm]

I wonder what would need to happen for member 8 to verify

A tropical system forming in the northern GOM feeding tropical moisture northward into an established arctic air mass. ***joking***

 

[MichaelJ]

Just a note of caution here, the GFS/GEFS are right about like a broken clock, twice every winter while the EURO is closer to being right about 80% of the time when it comes to wintry precipitation. It appears we will lose the -AO and -NAO around the first of the year, but will get a +PNA

 

[Montanasnow30]

A tropical system forming in the northern GOM feeding tropical moisture northward into an established arctic air mass. ***joking***

Lol I wouldn’t be mad at all if that was to come to fruition

 

[NoSnowATL]

Just a note of caution here, the GFS/GEFS are right about like a broken clock, twice every winter while the EURO is closer to being right about 80% of the time when it comes to wintry precipitation. It appears we will lose the -AO and -NAO around the first of the year, but will get a +PNA

I’ll take a +PNA all day.

 

[FallsLake]

I’ll take a +PNA all day.

PNA should stay positive into the LR
NAO looks neutral in the LR because of members on both sides of the fence
AO looks to stay solidly negative (by average)

I'm with you, the PNA being positive is what gets us winter storms.

CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Teleconnections (noaa.gov)

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I’ll take a +PNA all day.

Lose our -NAO and the flow probably speeds up. That honestly takes most of this board out of play for a blockbuster event outside of NC. What do I care though? I’ll be happy with a sleet pellet.

 

[ColdCoreLow]

Just to make sure this is known, the GEFS looks very good if you look at the mean, but be aware that member 8 is skewing the mean greatly. Although there are a few interesting members.View attachment 58730View attachment 58729

GEFS has been very consistent showing a few monster members now for the past several runs. Still much to be resolved.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Like this?




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I guess I’ll show my ignorance here - is CustomWx using his serious font or his sarcastic font?

 

[accu35]

Good increase

 

[Brick Tamland]

PNA should stay positive into the LR
NAO looks neutral in the LR because of members on both sides of the fence
AO looks to stay solidly negative (by average)

I'm with you, the PNA being positive is what gets us winter storms.

CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Teleconnections (noaa.gov)

Actually, according to the NC Climate Office, a -NAO is the biggest factor in getting us snow around here.

Global Patterns: Influences on NC Snowfall | North Carolina Climate Office

climate.ncsu.edu

 

[Ollie Williams]

I guess I’ll show my ignorance here - is CustomWx using his serious font or his sarcastic font?

Hi, I’m CustomWX, what do you mean about font?

 

[tennessee storm]

PNA should stay positive into the LR
NAO looks neutral in the LR because of members on both sides of the fence
AO looks to stay solidly negative (by average)

I'm with you, the PNA being positive is what gets us winter storms.

CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Teleconnections (noaa.gov)

yeah if you live south further south. positive pna will suppress the stork track

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Hi, I’m CustomWX, what do you mean about font?

Ha! Didn’t realize that was you! I mean, do you really not see much similarity between the ‘00 storm and the 12z Euro, or were you being facetious?

 

[Ollie Williams]

Ha! Didn’t realize that was you! I mean, do you really not see much similarity between the ‘00 storm and the 12z Euro, or were you being facetious?

Look at the date. I posted this in November. I see how that can be misleading.

 

[$alt]

Looks like I'll prepare for a wind storm on Christmas over snowflakes. Gotta get tie-downs for my reindeer decorations today.

 

[Arcc]

I wonder what would need to happen for member 8 to verify

A massive, bombing cutoff ULL centered just off PCB crawling NE. That or Cold air over taking the squall line and dropping 6-12 inch an hour rates. Both as likely as getting a bite by a radioactive spider and thinking it’s ok to run around in multicolored spandex.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Look at the date. I posted this in November. I see how that can be misleading.

Lol. I actually displayed my stupidity rather than my ignorance! ?

 

[Shaggy]

Looks like I'll prepare for a wind storm on Christmas over snowflakes. Gotta get tie-downs for my reindeer decorations today.

We got my 4 yr old a 14 foot trampoline my wife somehow thinks I can put together in the dark on xmas eve. This storm is saving my butt!!! No way to do it in the rain and wind.

 

[Montanasnow30]

A massive, bombing cutoff ULL centered just off PCB crawling NE.

Lol now I would love for that to happen hell I wish we can get the 40 inch snow like some of the New York folks got

 

[superjames1992]

Classic mega frost this morning. Roofs, shrubs, grass, cars covered

Same here! It's as good as it gets as far as winter weather for us these days! Savor the mega frosts!!!!